CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

CPHC doesn't seem to buy the HWRF/GFS solution yet.

Yeah they haven't from the beginning. Don't know why.

[floridasun78]

So much for the shear... And anticipated weakening....

Voila!

Raw Numbers are increasing Again! Im just floored!

what raw number now ? what was before?

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 AUG 2018 Time : 020000 UTC
Lat : 15:47:23 N Lon : 156:26:24 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 948.5mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.1 6.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km

Center Temp : -9.0C Cloud Region Temp : -68.4C

Scene Type : EYE

[OahuWahine]

Just got a hurricane warning alert on my phone but so far no emergency sirens.

[Kingarabian]

Eye needs to warm for those colder tops to mean higher intensity.

[Ellsey]

cannot get news live on islands waiting for 5pm news what going on islands with weather their people getting ready???

I don't know if anyone is live right now, but http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/ has been having some livestreams. Also https://www.facebook.com/K5theHomeTeam/ has been broadcasting live occasionally on their FB page. Judging by my friends and family in Hawaii I feel like it's 50/50 for people taking this seriously vs saying they'll be fine for various reasons (it doesn't have a Hawaiian name, they never get hits, etc). I've been trying to get my husband to call his parents in Honolulu and make sure they are set for this thing.

[cjrciadt]

cannot get news live on islands waiting for 5pm news what going on islands with weather their people getting ready???

I don't know if anyone is live right now, but http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/ has been having some livestreams. Also https://www.facebook.com/K5theHomeTeam/ has been broadcasting live occasionally on their FB page. Judging by my friends and family in Hawaii I feel like it's 50/50 for people taking this seriously vs saying they'll be fine for various reasons (it doesn't have a Hawaiian name, they never get hits, etc). I've been trying to get my husband to call his parents in Honolulu and make sure they are set for this thing.

watching Khon im in Fl lol!

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Cloudtops are more symmetric and cooler, but the eye temperature has dropped significantly today, now down to ~-9C. The 1z microwave pass also showed the eyewall was open. CPHC is right in showing and forecasting weakening.

[floridasun78]

cannot get news live on islands waiting for 5pm news what going on islands with weather their people getting ready???

I don't know if anyone is live right now, but http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/ has been having some livestreams. Also https://www.facebook.com/K5theHomeTeam/ has been broadcasting live occasionally on their FB page. Judging by my friends and family in Hawaii I feel like it's 50/50 for people taking this seriously vs saying they'll be fine for various reasons (it doesn't have a Hawaiian name, they never get hits, etc). I've been trying to get my husband to call his parents in Honolulu and make sure they are set for this thing.

be safe i know what hurr can do look 2017 hurr do Caribbeans islands and key west islands be safe hope eye stay off coast

[Aric Dunn]

Cloudtops are more symmetric and cooler, but the eye temperature has dropped significantly today, now down to ~-9C. The 1z microwave pass also showed the eyewall was open. CPHC is right in showing and forecasting weakening.

with the eye clouding over from some shear .. the eye temp is a little harder to distinguish without direct measure.

[supercane4867]

[floridasun78]

cannot get news live on islands waiting for 5pm news what going on islands with weather their people getting ready???

I don't know if anyone is live right now, but http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/ has been having some livestreams. Also https://www.facebook.com/K5theHomeTeam/ has been broadcasting live occasionally on their FB page. Judging by my friends and family in Hawaii I feel like it's 50/50 for people taking this seriously vs saying they'll be fine for various reasons (it doesn't have a Hawaiian name, they never get hits, etc). I've been trying to get my husband to call his parents in Honolulu and make sure they are set for this thing.

watching Khon im in Fl lol!

last time i look was rebroadcast from 11am news

[yzerfan]

United, American, Delta, Hawaiian, and Alaska Airlines have all now issued weather waivers so that ticketed passengers may change airline reservations in possibly impacted areas on possibly impacted dates free of change fees.

As for the American Airlines ticket pricing earlier, it wasn't price-gouging that was turning up $4K tickets. It was the airline setting up their price algorithm months ago on that route with a certain number of seats assigned to each ticket type and price band (deep discount 21 day advance purchase might get 20 seats on the plane, unrestricted full refundable and very expensive walk up fares might get assigned 10 seats, and there can be 20 different ticket types in between the cheapest and most expensive) Sounds like the $4K result was on a flight where only fully refundable $$$ undiscounted coach was left.

To get the cheap evacuation ticket prices like Delta did for Hurricane Irma requires a fair amount of active work on the part of the airline's IT department to get tickets reclassified and repriced. American just sitting on existing pricing in thesystem is not good PR for the airline, but it's only going to be price-gouging if they actively changed fares after a state of emergency was declared, and it sounds like they just let what was already loaded into the system to sit and some cheaper options that are restricted to 7 day advance purchase and such had those conditions expire.

[Aric Dunn]

United, American, Delta, Hawaiian, and Alaska Airlines have all now issued weather waivers so that ticketed passengers may change airline reservations in possibly impacted areas on possibly impacted dates free of change fees.

As for the American Airlines ticket pricing earlier, it wasn't price-gouging that was turning up $4K tickets. It was the airline setting up their price algorithm months ago on that route with a certain number of seats assigned to each ticket type and price band (deep discount 21 day advance purchase might get 20 seats on the plane, unrestricted full refundable and very expensive walk up fares might get assigned 10 seats, and there can be 20 different ticket types in between the cheapest and most expensive) Sounds like the $4K result was on a flight where only fully refundable $$$ undiscounted coach was left.

To get the cheap evacuation ticket prices like Delta did for Hurricane Irma requires a fair amount of active work on the part of the airline's IT department to get tickets reclassified and repriced. American just sitting on existing pricing in thesystem is not good PR for the airline, but it's only going to be price-gouging if they actively changed fares after a state of emergency was declared, and it sounds like they just let what was already loaded into the system to sit and some cheaper options that are restricted to 7 day advance purchase and such had those conditions expire.

That is good to know.. however no plane ticket should ever be that much for any reason.. lol

[NDG]

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS rolling

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS rolling 00-24 hours:

[Kingarabian]

Stronger through 24 hours:

[Hypercane_Kyle]

00z GFS has a direct hit on Maui.

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS not budging.