ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/status/1321375164165099523




Up to 85Mph now. Cat 2 landfall expected

[Keldeo1997]

Recon got a closed elliptical eye

[GCANE]

Looks like those PVS's backed off.
Zeta moving into the middle of the ARWB.
Structure clearly seen on WV Imagery.

[NDG]

A lot of people in New Orleans are going to wake up to a surprise of now being forecasted to become a Cat 2 hurricane, a lot employers were making people to go to work to day, I don't see that happening now.

[GCANE]

According to COAMPS, intensity should peak out sometimes early afternoon.

[jaxfladude]

Any good news like very small hurricane force windfield/strongest winds not mixing to surface or continental dry air or what? Heard even Atlanta metro has some kind of wind advisory yikes...could be a nasty and damaging system for good portion of CONUS? Please correct if I got anything wrong.

[bella_may]

No disrespect to the NHC but most models have been forecasting a category two for a while now. What took so long to upgrade?

WLOX has 100mph winds arriving on the coast as early as 7pm and strong gusts starting as early as 4. I hope this doesn’t catch people off guard

[Stormgodess]

Preps need to be rushed to completion... Thats new


 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1321378384866234369

[GCANE]

Two leading hot towers, 180-degrees apart.
Need to watch this a little more but it could be the eye is shrinking.
Recon showed 77% humidity at 700mb.
Measured an elliptical eye, 30nm by 8nm.
That 8nm is a bit concerning.

[SconnieCane]

Cane we get thread title corrected, please?

[SouthDadeFish]

This is very concerning. Classic cyan ring. We shall see if shear can increase quickly enough to prevent further RI, but yikes.

 https://twitter.com/mikefischerwx/status/1321380457162952705

[NDG]

According to COAMPS, intensity should peak out sometimes early afternoon.

The interesting part is the the Euro showing pressures still falling after making landfall.

[tiger_deF]

Zeta is going nuts on IR right now, dual white and pink hot towers are flying around the eye and the convection within the eyewall is starting to warm. Best it's ever looked

[bob rulz]

Wow I feel awful for people on the Gulf Coast this year. They have not been catching any breaks, the Gulf has just been a monster this year. The constant threats must be exhausting.

[GCANE]

27N is where theta-e starts dropping.
I expect that is about where Zeta will reach max intensity.
Cat 2?, Cat 3? - watch the eye if it starts to shrink and / or dry out.

[Ryxn]

A CAT 3 would be historic for late season activity as there were TWO majors previous to Zeta (Delta and Epsilon) and they both formed in October

Crazy stuff. And there is still Eta which may surprise as well

[Stormgodess]

According to COAMPS, intensity should peak out sometimes early afternoon.

The interesting part is the the Euro showing pressures still falling after making landfall.

Speed, then Passing over Marsh then Lake Ponchatrain??? Could that be why?

[Stormgodess]

Any new info out on Track? Spaghetti models?

[Shell Mound]

This is very concerning. Classic cyan ring. We shall see if shear can increase quickly enough to prevent further RI, but yikes.

https://twitter.com/mikefischerwx/status/1321380457162952705

The HWRF and ECMWF show Zeta moving parallel to the shear vectors up until landfall, hence continued intensification on those models till landfall.

[HurryKane]

Wow I feel awful for people on the Gulf Coast this year. They have not been catching any breaks, the Gulf has just been a monster this year. The constant threats must be exhausting.

A lot of us have prepping (and 2020) fatigue, and probably didn’t prep as thoroughly as usual this time. Then again a lot of us were still mostly prepped from being in the cross-hairs six times already. There are a couple of things I did not move out of the yard yesterday that I’m going to go bring inside right now based on the 0400 advisory. Sigh.