ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

GFS moves east...one time model error or start of a trend...now we wait for the Euro to see what it does

CMC looks east too. Icon slams into Tampa and UKMET is further south. The shifts continue. I don’t envy the NHC right now with all this flip flopping but maybe this will be good for them to have more agreement from the models.

[verruckt]

I think something to keep in mind is the models are finally getting data in from yesterday and last night's recon. As that goes on, the models will get more accurate.

Also, I don't believe the 00z GFS had any recon data from what I read at the time, although I was pretty sleepy when it came out . Therefore I'm not so surprised in the right shifts and am betting on them keeping up.

[Hurricaneman]

Wouldn’t be surprised if the pressure is in the upper 990s by the look of things

[idaknowman]

My thoughts on putting up temporary shutters (wood, aluminum, metal) based on my own personal experience.

Since we don't use them very often, they are probably stored in a place not easily accessible (have to move things around to get to them and place them by the windows/doors);
Do you have all the materials necessary to put them up: tools, hardware, ladder, at least one helper preferably with extra tools;
Are you going to be dealing with rain & wind when you put them up? Rain is a hassle, wind is a problem if you're holding up a 6' tall panel.

So consider the above, and add whatever time it has taken you in the past to put them up - you have put them up in the past to make sure they fit, etc.?

[kevin]

Still a bit of a mess on IR, but looking better with every frame on VIS.

[Jelmergraaff]

Structure looked good already earlier today, right now convection seems to get more persistent as well.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1574070679724388353

[Iceresistance]

Still a bit of a mess on IR, but looking better with every frame on VIS.

https://imgur.com/vl4dBpT

I've noticed that the circulation is starting to spin faster.

[Do_For_Love]

I guess the ramp up has begun...

It has definitely not begun yet. Ian won’t be ramping up until it has consistent, expansive, deep convection over its LLC. It’s nowhere near that yet.

Agree, the first warning sign of RI is when there is powerful convection that is developing near the CoC and starts to rotate with it and spin faster.

I didn't say it was doing an RI, just that it's starting to strengthen after a period of relative stability overnight. Which seems to be true if the pressure is dropping and convection is increasing, no?

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/drrickknabb/status/1574068174148227072

[underthwx]

Slowly looking a bit more organized this afternoon.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/temp/tccapture.gif

Is Ian entering the beginning stages of further intensification?

[robbielyn]

I know that the flooding can be really bad, but I think we should all be grateful of the amount of shear that's forecasted to be in the northern gulf.... I can't even imagine how horrible this situation would have been if the conditions were great for intensification, rather than weakening. Cat 1 to maybe Cat 2 seems the most likely strength at landfall... .. I'm not really concerned about the wind as much though, except on the coast... I'm concerned about the rain/surge, especially if the EURO wins out and there's more of a stall over Florida......

i’m 14 miles inland is that safe from wind and surge?

[HeeBGBz]

Can anyone say what percentage of chances Ian moves even move more west by the time it arrives in the Gulf thanks in advance

I think it will. I have no expertise in meteorology but I've seen storms come into the gulf from Caribbean that kept west when it was expected to turn east. Then when it actually turns east comes to the north gulf coast. My weatherbones are howling achey and my gut always thinks storms coming to get me. Anyway I relate more to the gfs without the crack.

[tolakram]

200 frame loop. A lot more convection than this morning.

[StPeteMike]

Slowly looking a bit more organized this afternoon.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/temp/tccapture.gif

Is Ian entering the beginning stages of further intensification?

Sure is. Between this evening and tomorrow night, nothing should stop it from rapidly intensifying.

[ScottNAtlanta]

It is finally stacked. This is just one big burst over the center from going to town

[Sciencerocks]

[Poonwalker]

My thoughts on putting up temporary shutters (wood, aluminum, metal) based on my own personal experience.

Since we don't use them very often, they are probably stored in a place not easily accessible (have to move things around to get to them and place them by the windows/doors);
Do you have all the materials necessary to put them up: tools, hardware, ladder, at least one helper preferably with extra tools;
Are you going to be dealing with rain & wind when you put them up? Rain is a hassle, wind is a problem if you're holding up a 6' tall panel.

So consider the above, and add whatever time it has taken you in the past to put them up - you have put them up in the past to make sure they fit, etc.?

If you don’t have them and are considering boarding up block windows, get concrete bits and screws asap. They will be gone. During Charley I got the wood but had nothing to put it up with.

[Elsiecoro]

I know that the flooding can be really bad, but I think we should all be grateful of the amount of shear that's forecasted to be in the northern gulf.... I can't even imagine how horrible this situation would have been if the conditions were great for intensification, rather than weakening. Cat 1 to maybe Cat 2 seems the most likely strength at landfall... .. I'm not really concerned about the wind as much though, except on the coast... I'm concerned about the rain/surge, especially if the EURO wins out and there's more of a stall over Florida......

i’m 14 miles inland is that safe from wind and surge?

everyone is in their own unique situation when it comes to these beasts. Only you can decide what is safe for you, based upon the knowledge presented here and act accordingly.

[beachnut]

http://wxman57.com/images/SLOSHTPA.JPG

That is a but concerning to see so much area vulnerable to 15'+ of surge. With Ian, I hope the compact size will limit surge.

My grandmom and aunt live in the Clearwater/Safety Harbor area. My grandmom's place is the stronger structure and around 30' above sea level. I will have to give them a call soon and see what their plan is. With her being 95 years old evacuating is difficult but not as bad having no power for an extended period of time.

My wife's family all lives up in Pinellas, we need to give them a call too. We lived in Seminole before we moved to the Fort Myers area in '97. I know there's a lot of high spots in Pinellas, especially along the ridge from about Bellair down through south Seminole, maybe elsewhere too, but with massive surge forecasts it's tricky. Where we are now in Lee county just about everything west of US41 is in a flood/surge zone with few exceptions.

I use this surge site that shows inundation above ground: https://cera.coastalrisk.live/ . Use the drop-down to show the latest advisory.The NHC used to have one on their storm graphics page, not sure where it went.