ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[otowntiger]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Hlhqkm-tjQ
Here's a drone video of the aftermath. Looks like every building was damaged.

thanks for sharing. At least the foundations of most of the homes are in-tact, but of course without roofs now they are going to face even more water damage from stray thunderstorms. . Not sure how long it would take them to repair all of those roofs.

I am frankly amazed that the damage was not much worse. There were some buildings that looked like they had minimal damage, and of course some destroyed. They must have strong building codes in those islands.
Looks like the airports runway is not damage or blocked so they will be able to fly things in for relief efforts.

I just realized at 7:20 of the video he is filming IN THE EYE!

agreed- considering it went thru the core of a near cat 5 storm I think that area looks amazingly good!

[cheezyWXguy]

I think there’s a decent chance we’ll get cat5 justification on the next NE eyewall pass. Based on eye dropsondes, the eye has dried and warmed slightly between passes, while cdo convection continues to cool. Suggests slow intensification, though I would be more confident if we saw more of a pressure decrease.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/MatthewCappucci/status/1807944573127160041

[HurricaneBelle]

realizing I need to add "Post-season upgrade" to my S2K bingo card

[Hammy]

Can't tell if the pressure's up, or if they missed the center by too much

[Charleswachal]

They may not quite be in the full center yet. We still have another update to see if they have 1 or 2 barbs left before the dead center

[Xyls]

At least one person killed in St. Vincent and the Grenadines per the government from Beryl. 90% of buildings on Union Island damaged or destroyed.

Unclear the scale of the damage on Canouan and Mayreau or if further fatalities. But looks like this may be the costliest disaster in St. Vincent and the Grenadines based on initial reports.

https://caribbean.loopnews.com/content/ ... estruction

[Hypercane_Kyle]

180mph flight level winds.

If it talks like a duck, quacks like a duck...

[NDG]

Wow!

OAA2 0702A BERYL HDOB 23 20240702
015130 1343N 06434W 6968 02655 9383 +219 +059 174012 015 /// /// 03
015200 1345N 06432W 6959 02668 9383 +216 +080 150029 039 /// /// 03
015230 1347N 06431W 6953 02689 9417 +190 +113 147066 079 /// /// 03
015300 1348N 06429W 6960 02725 9493 +158 +145 146110 126 /// /// 03
015330 1349N 06427W 6965 02811 9621 +125 +145 144152 157 /// /// 05
015400 1350N 06426W 6980 02877 9728 +114 +136 144144 151 /// /// 05
015430 1351N 06425W 6932 02999 9808 +103 +128 143137 140 /// /// 05
015500 1353N 06423W 6959 03013 9863 +104 +103 143133 137 /// /// 03
015530 1354N 06422W 6974 03030 9902 +106 +097 144122 130 /// /// 03

[Charleswachal]

Raw ADT number is now 6.8. this is the highest ADT number thus far.

[AxaltaRacing24]

180mph flight level winds.

If it talks like a duck, quacks like a duck...

Man, it deserves it at this point. If we upgraded Ian, Michael, and Matthew, then this is also a cat 5.....

[Xyls]

For Jamaica's sake it better get knocked down by something soon, Cat 5 into that island would be quite a disaster (almost 3M people). Because with the trajectory getting nudged north it's sure looking like they're pretty close to the path, if not directly in the way. Even if it stay south a bit, they'll get the worst winds.

As I said earlier in this topic. Jamaica should be treating Beryl as if they are going to take a direct hit from at least a Cat 3. It may weaken to a 2 or remain stronger. But the likelihood is either way there are going to be impacts.

[CrazyC83]

180mph flight level winds.

If it talks like a duck, quacks like a duck...

Man, it deserves it at this point. If we upgraded Ian, Michael, and Matthew, then this is also a cat 5.....

I think they missed the center on the pressure too. The data supports at least 140 kt, possibly 145 kt.

[Kazmit]

We have it!

[Charleswachal]

For Jamaica's sake it better get knocked down by something soon, Cat 5 into that island would be quite a disaster (almost 3M people). Because with the trajectory getting nudged north it's sure looking like they're pretty close to the path, if not directly in the way. Even if it stay south a bit, they'll get the worst winds.

As I said earlier in this topic. Jamaica should be treating Beryl as if they are going to take a direct hit from at least a Cat 3. It may weaken to a 2 or remain stronger. But the likelihood is either way there are going to be impacts.

Just remember the surge is going to be a category or 2 higher too as surge takes a long time to come down to the storm as it weakens

[Beef Stew]

157kt FL winds on a marginally bad pass supports an upgrade, IMO.

[IcyTundra]

I think they have enough support from recon to go to 140 kts at the 11 PM advisory

[cheezyWXguy]

Yeah I’d say that does it…

[AxaltaRacing24]

I think they have enough support from recon to go to 140 kts at the 11 PM advisory

You could even make a case for 145kts.

[CrazyC83]

I think they have enough support from recon to go to 140 kts at the 11 PM advisory

You could even make a case for 145kts.

Based on the earlier SFMR data, I think 145 kt is the best estimate right now.