ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[kevin]

Recon entering Helene now. Still about 200 km from the center and pressure is down to 997 mbar.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Lookslike a giant eye may be forming. Am not sure on this but if i think i see what im seeing that could be a 60-70 mile wide eye.
It could very well just be deceptive banding.

[MetsIslesNoles]

Not what I wanted to see this morning in Tallahassee. I hope everyone here takes it seriously. Kudos to the city and county getting the message out early.

[eastcoastFL]

Lookslike a giant eye may be forming. Am not sure on this but if i think i see what im seeing that could be a 60-70 mile wide eye.
It could very well just be deceptive banding.

I was looking at microwave imagery and it does look like a rather large eye is in the making

[cycloneye]

Peak Flight-Level Winds: 63.0kt at 10:39z

[otowntiger]

Not what I wanted to see this morning in Tallahassee. I hope everyone here takes it seriously. Kudos to the city and county getting the message out early.

Good to hear the word is out for Tally and surrounding areas and hopefully serious preps are underway. I know it’s been said before for other storm threats that didn’t materialize, at least for metro Tallahassee but this could be a big one, THE big one for the city proper. If the center of a high end cat 3 storm gets that close there could be major wind damage not seen there before. Hopefully like in times past it doesn’t happen and the storm weakens and /or avoids the most densely populated areas.

[sponger]

If trends continue, Tallahassee may be spared the dirty side of this storm. Could make a huge difference! Icon has not budged, Graf is in agreement, and GFS is slightly East.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Peak Flight-Level Winds: 63.0kt at 10:39z

Pretty impressive considering still some ways away from the center.

May very well be 60-65 knots on this pass on SFMR.

[ChrisH-UK]

This is a 1 hour loop pf GOES-16 Meso-1 using the Tropical Airmass to show the detail and yes it's in pink.

Source - https://col.st/C9rHp

[toad strangler]

Weather radio coincided with my alarm this morning: Tropical Storm warning now for Miami Dade as well

I saw a snarky tweet from one of our local mets about not being under any watch/warning last night as the intensity cycle was underway. I was looking at the wind fields for later tonight and tomorrow and was surprised they didn't have at least a watch, they went straight to a warning instead. I dont recall seeing this much of the state watch/warned..maybe irma. This a surge/wind event,hopefully those people get out of the way of surge. They evacuated all of Taylor's country in preparation.

It feels like none of the multiple storms that have passed off the FL west coast recently have had any effects on the east coast except far flung outer showers. Couldn't even call them bands. This time is different apparently. A full state storm inbound?

[eastcoastFL]

Peak Flight-Level Winds: 63.0kt at 10:39z

Where is the flight right now? Is that north of center?

[kevin]

Recon 984.0 mbar extrapolated, still not at the center (21.3N, 86.1W).

[cycloneye]

Plane has not reached the center but look at the pressure going down fast.

Minimum Extrap. Pressure: 984.0mb at 10:55z

[xironman]

These recon flights are still not measuring rain rates, any idea why? Is it just not showing up on TT?

For whatever reason (equipment problems?) they are not running SFMR, they use the rain rate on the equipment to flag suspect readings.

[Texashawk]

Now Helene is one impressive tropical storm.

[BobHarlem]

New Forecast map style shines with this setup, Might as well say nearly all of Florida is under a Warning.

[Frank P]

[kevin]

Center pass, extrapolated pressure 981.0 mbar with 11 kt winds -> 980 mbar.

The eye drop at 07z measured a pressure of 985 mbar. So since then there has been an intensification of about 1.25 mb/hr.

[eastcoastFL]

Weather radio coincided with my alarm this morning: Tropical Storm warning now for Miami Dade as well

I saw a snarky tweet from one of our local mets about not being under any watch/warning last night as the intensity cycle was underway. I was looking at the wind fields for later tonight and tomorrow and was surprised they didn't have at least a watch, they went straight to a warning instead. I dont recall seeing this much of the state watch/warned..maybe irma. This a surge/wind event,hopefully those people get out of the way of surge. They evacuated all of Taylor's country in preparation.

It feels like none of the multiple storms that have passed off the FL west coast recently have had any effects on the east coast except far flung outer showers. Couldn't even call them bands. This time is different apparently. A full state storm inbound?

This time around with the size of this storm one little wobble east would change our weather from 30mph winds to 60mph. Hopefully that's not the case.

[GCANE]

Looks like she is taking off.
A rotating hot tower just east of Cancun.