TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[gkrangers]

I have to say I'm surprised that they dont have it up to 35kts... she isnt looking too bad... is there still a chance that the NHC will upgrade her to a TS at 5 or will they follow the models?

ok and one last thing WHERE IS RECON????

Still difficult to locate a center..so it'll probably stay a TD.

[WeatherEmperor]

im going to find that center if its the last thing i do!!!!

good luck dude

<RICKY>

[Anonymous]

it isnt being upgraded because it hasn't become any better organized. It is still embedded within the SAL

Well, it certainly has a better structure.

[bmoreorless]

Welcome back to the party, UKMET!

As someone heading to OBX on Sunday for my long-anticipated yearly weeklong vacation, I can't help but extrapolate all the models and feel like it's not really going to be worth driving down there for a day, only to have to leave.

[MiamiensisWx]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Irene really looks a lot better now on both the infra-red and visible imagery (and floaters) since last night. She looks currently just as good, if not better, than what she was temporarily yesterday before the weakening of convection due to possibly some dry air and shear. Here is the current visible floater.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html

Although still a TD, Irene has a good circulation and appears to be once again trying to develop a center. Here is a still, current infra-red picture.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

On the water vapor image, there appears to be some slight but not terribly much dry air ahead and slightly south of Irene.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT2/WV/20.jpg

This probably indicates a more favorable environment ahead of Irene, since the dry air has seemingly retreated since last night. Also, the ULL near Florida appears to have shifted a bit by looking at infra-red imagery. This may indicate, then, that TD Irene has a better chance to strengthen. I could be mistaken, though. By the way, she now appears to be on a more west-northwestward track, but just ever so slightly is she seemingly heading north of west.

[baygirl_1]

Is it just me, or do the models seem to be going further west and south with every run?

[WeatherEmperor]

Is it just me, or do the models seem to be going further west and south with every run?

well i dunno about further south but yeah a bit west. look how amazingly clustered they are to the NHC track. nice.

<RICKY>

[baygirl_1]

Is it just me, or do the models seem to be going further west and south with every run?

well i dunno about further south but yeah a bit west. look how amazingly clustered they are to the NHC track. nice.

<RICKY>

It could be me:after staring at satellite pictures and with everything going on in this house today (thank God school starts soon!), it could be my eyes and my exasperated brain!

[WeatherEmperor]

Is it just me, or do the models seem to be going further west and south with every run?

well i dunno about further south but yeah a bit west. look how amazingly clustered they are to the NHC track. nice.

<RICKY>

It could be me:after staring at satellite pictures and with everything going on in this house today (thank God school starts soon!), it could be my eyes and my exasperated brain!

oh no dont get me wrong. for all its worth you could be right and Im the one wrong here. Ill gladly eat crow. Im a big boy I can take it

<RICKY>

[bmoreorless]

At 11 a.m., the NHC track was the outlier to the left. Now it's right down the middle. Wonder if NHC will go more south/westerly than the models again at 5 p.m. Things seem to be trending that way.

[deltadog03]

so, NHC has it crossing 60W and 30N right?? i mean forecasted too...if i am seeing that right

[Derek Ortt]

the outflow is better than yesterday; however, the shear is below the typical 200mb level. Its closer to the 300mb level. Also, while inflow has temporarily increased, there still does not appear to be a surface center.

Also, the convection appears to again be collapsing on the IR, just like yesterday. Convection cannot be sustained when embedded within the SAL

[gkrangers]

At 11 a.m., the NHC track was the outlier to the left. Now it's right down the middle. Wonder if NHC will go more south/westerly than the models again at 5 p.m. Things seem to be trending that way.

At 11AM, they said they might go more left at 5PM.

[superfly]

so, NHC has it crossing 60W and 30N right?? i mean forecasted too...if i am seeing that right

What are you talking about? It's going to cross 60W around 23N.

[gkrangers]

so, NHC has it crossing 60W and 30N right?? i mean forecasted too...if i am seeing that right

NHC track crosses 30N at about 73W. It crosses 60W at about 23N.

[deltadog03]

im sorry...i am an idiot...lol i meant 23N...sorry

[WeatherEmperor]

im sorry...i am an idiot...lol i meant 23N...sorry

it was an honest mistake. dont be too harsh on yourself

<RICKY>

[deltadog03]

thanks...i think she crosses 60W south of 23

[Stratusxpeye]

Jeesh had to comment on the 72 pages and very well growing Is this the most pages ever created for one topic?

[micktooth]

Might break 100 just on a TD! What's going to happen when the next big one really starts churning. This really is a "record" season in many aspects.