Rita Recon Reports

[Benlanka]

A bumpy ride for NOAA-2. It looks like it passed the inner eyewall around 21.30Z and the outer eyewall around 21.50Z (two wind peaks).

406
URNT40 KWBC 222200
NOAA2 WX18A RITA
213100 2613 08945 6223 -1229 061131 +179 +179 064134 090 018
213200 2616 08947 5996 -1062 058119 +179 +175 059122 082 020
213300 2618 08949 5889 -0928 060107 +187 +176 058112 075 010
213400 2621 08951 5830 -0817 059099 +190 +173 058102 071 011
213500 2624 08955 5809 -0740 060098 +187 +176 057102 999 999
213600 2621 09000 5806 -0718 053097 +188 +177 055101 065 010
213700 2618 09005 5802 -0712 046093 +188 +179 048096 062 009
213800 2614 09009 5805 -0703 040092 +188 +178 039093 061 009
213900 2609 09011 5780 -0720 033091 +191 +176 029092 062 009
214000 2604 09011 5770 -0751 024091 +193 +171 021092 063 008
214100 2558 09011 5767 -0774 017088 +195 +169 020089 062 009
214200 2553 09011 5772 -0782 009087 +189 +168 007087 061 009
214300 2548 09009 5771 -0785 000085 +192 +167 357086 061 008
214400 2543 09007 5767 -0796 350085 +188 +171 353087 060 008
214500 2540 09003 5777 -0841 341087 +190 +166 339090 061 008
214600 2541 09000 5985 -0945 338097 +183 +171 338100 069 014
214700 2543 08956 6129 -1097 331105 +186 +172 337112 077 035
214800 2544 08952 6383 -1272 342100 +193 +184 344107 083 008
214900 2545 08948 6367 -1448 327093 +198 +185 336099 080 005
215000 2547 08944 6662 -1690 316100 +200 +181 313105 080 008
215100 2549 08940 6991 -2077 302095 +210 +187 303104 082 012
215200 2551 08936 7361 -2332 269044 +213 +195 288066 036 005

Max. FL winds 134 knots.

[Benlanka]

New dropsonde, again 913 hPa. Eyewall is open to the east according to the AF.

256
UZNT13 KNHC 222219
XXAA 72227 99260 70896 08169 99913 26400 11015 00/// ///// /////
92/// ///// ///// 85631 23200 11510 70321 18626 17513 88999 77999
31313 09608 82211
61616 AF306 WX18A RITA01 OB 12
62626 EYE SPL 2598N08965W 2214 MBL WND 11513 AEV 20507 DLM WND 13
013 913720 WL150 11514 075 =
XXBB 72228 99260 70896 08169 00913 26400 11850 23200 22696 17823
21212 00913 11015 11850 11510 22720 15013 33696 18013
31313 09608 82211
61616 AF306 WX18A RITA01 OB 12
62626 EYE SPL 2598N08965W 2214 MBL WND 11513 AEV 20507 DLM WND 13
013 913720 WL150 11514 075 =

And the vortex:

294
URNT12 KNHC 222219
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/22:11:00Z
B. 25 deg 58 min N
089 deg 39 min W
C. 700 mb 2326 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 054 deg 124 kt
G. 312 deg 019 nm
H. 913 mb
I. 9 C/ 3065 m
J. 19 C/ 3049 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. OPEN E
M. CO14/35
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 WX18A RITA01 OB 11
MAX FL WIND 132 KT NE QUAD 21:24:10 Z

[Scorpion]

Just compromise with 912 I guess.

[drezee]

buoy 42001 just reported 137 mph wind gust in the SW quad

[soonertwister]

Something I just don't get. The last 9 VDM's have all had pressure measurements between 911 and 915, which should easily support 140 knot surface winds (155 flight level), yet the wind speed measurements have3 been well below that each time.

FL >> Surface

135 >> 121
135 >> 121
125 >> 112
122 >> 109
133 >> 119
122 >> 109
133 >> 119
122 >> 109
132 >> 118

Why are all these wind speeds 20-35 mph below what we should be expecting? Even the latest SSD satellite T-number supports 160 mph winds.

[Brent]

Something I just don't get. The last 9 VDM's have all had pressure measurements between 911 and 915, which should easily support 140 knot surface winds (155 flight level), yet the wind speed measurements have3 been well below that each time.

FL >> Surface

135 >> 121
135 >> 121
125 >> 112
122 >> 109
133 >> 119
122 >> 109
133 >> 119
122 >> 109
132 >> 118

Why are all these wind speeds 20-35 mph below what we should be expecting? Even the latest SSD satellite T-number supports 160 mph winds.

The ERC weakened it significantly and the winds now have to catch up??? Yeah... it looks like a Cat 5 for sure. It's only a matter of time.

[jpigott]

where's recon, i need more recon, i got the recon fever bad

[superfly]

Something I just don't get. The last 9 VDM's have all had pressure measurements between 911 and 915, which should easily support 140 knot surface winds (155 flight level), yet the wind speed measurements have3 been well below that each time.

FL >> Surface

135 >> 121
135 >> 121
125 >> 112
122 >> 109
133 >> 119
122 >> 109
133 >> 119
122 >> 109
132 >> 118

Why are all these wind speeds 20-35 mph below what we should be expecting? Even the latest SSD satellite T-number supports 160 mph winds.

The ERC weakened it significantly and the winds now have to catch up??? Yeah... it looks like a Cat 5 for sure. It's only a matter of time.

The ERC is not complete.

[AZS]

364
URNT12 KNHC 222338
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/23:28:50Z
B. 26 deg 01 min N
089 deg 49 min W
C. 700 mb 2346 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 132 deg 125 kt
G. 047 deg 024 nm
H. 913 mb
I. 11 C/ 3052 m
J. 18 C/ 3050 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. OPEN NE-SE
M. CO16/35
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 WX18A RITA01 OB 16
MAX FL WIND 125 KT NE QUAD 23:21:20 Z
OUTER EYEWALL SMALL OPENING W

[AZS]

364
URNT12 KNHC 222338
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/23:28:50Z
B. 26 deg 01 min N
089 deg 49 min W
C. 700 mb 2346 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 132 deg 125 kt
G. 047 deg 024 nm
H. 913 mb
I. 11 C/ 3052 m
J. 18 C/ 3050 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. OPEN NE-SE
M. CO16/35
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 WX18A RITA01 OB 16
MAX FL WIND 125 KT NE QUAD 23:21:20 Z
OUTER EYEWALL SMALL OPENING W

[cycloneye]

SXXX50 KNHC 230001
AF309 2018A RITA HDOB 14 KNHC
2349. 2652N 08902W 03014 5022 126 068 098 098 070 02979 0000000000
2350 2651N 08904W 03017 5026 126 069 106 106 070 02978 0000000000
2350. 2649N 08905W 03017 5028 126 071 106 106 071 02976 0000000000
2351 2648N 08906W 03017 5033 126 072 110 110 072 02971 0000000000
2351. 2647N 08907W 03016 5037 125 073 112 112 075 02967 0000000000
2352 2645N 08909W 03019 5042 125 074 110 110 075 02964 0000000000
2352. 2644N 08910W 03017 5048 125 076 110 110 079 02956 0000000000
2353 2643N 08911W 03016 5053 122 076 108 108 077 02950 0000000000
2353. 2641N 08912W 03019 5059 123 078 106 106 080 02947 0000000000
2354 2640N 08914W 03015 5064 122 078 108 108 079 02939 0000000000
2354. 2639N 08915W 03018 5070 123 078 110 110 079 02935 0000000000
2355 2637N 08916W 03018 5075 124 079 108 108 079 02930 0000000000
2355. 2636N 08917W 03016 5081 123 078 098 098 079 02922 0000000000
2356 2635N 08919W 03020 5088 125 079 110 110 080 02919 0000000000
2356. 2633N 08920W 03016 5095 127 081 102 102 082 02908 0000000000
2357 2632N 08921W 03020 5103 127 083 110 104 083 02904 0000000000
2357. 2631N 08922W 03014 5110 127 086 114 102 087 02891 0000000000
2358 2630N 08923W 03017 5118 128 088 114 106 089 02886 0000000000
2358. 2628N 08925W 03019 5128 129 091 110 110 092 02878 0000000000
2359 2627N 08926W 03017 5137 129 094 106 106 095 02867 0000000000

[cycloneye]

SXXX50 KNHC 230009
AF306 WX18A RITA01 HDOB 43 KNHC
2357 2449N 09009W 02443 5059 274 073 098 098 074 02427 0000000000
2357. 2448N 09007W 02438 5058 273 071 104 104 071 02423 0000000000
2358 2448N 09004W 02439 5058 269 069 128 120 069 02425 0000000000
2358. 2447N 09002W 02440 5057 265 067 128 116 069 02426 0000000000
2359 2447N 08959W 02440 5058 265 069 130 114 070 02426 0000000000
2359. 2447N 08957W 02439 5058 264 069 126 118 070 02424 0000000000
0000 2447N 08954W 02439 5057 260 067 120 120 067 02425 0000000000
0000. 2448N 08952W 02442 5056 257 065 120 120 067 02429 0000000000
0001 2450N 08950W 02439 5062 253 061 130 130 061 02421 0000000000
0001. 2451N 08949W 02438 5066 256 061 130 130 062 02415 0000000000
0002 2453N 08947W 02441 5069 257 062 134 126 065 02416 0000000000
0002. 2454N 08946W 02438 5073 255 064 124 124 064 02408 0000000000
0003 2456N 08944W 02436 5080 251 067 108 108 069 02400 0000000000
0003. 2457N 08942W 02440 5082 254 061 114 114 061 02402 0000000000
0004 2458N 08940W 02449 5083 263 064 116 116 066 02409 0000000000
0004. 2459N 08937W 02437 5085 257 060 116 116 060 02396 0000000000
0005 2500N 08935W 02438 5087 252 060 120 120 061 02395 0000000000
0005. 2501N 08933W 02441 5088 249 060 118 118 062 02396 0000000000
0006 2502N 08931W 02442 5090 246 065 118 118 065 02395 0000000000
0006. 2503N 08929W 02436 5093 241 068 116 116 070 02387 0000000000

[cycloneye]

SXXX50 KNHC 230010
AF309 2018A RITA HDOB 15 KNHC
2359. 2626N 08927W 03016 5149 131 097 108 098 098 02854 0000000000
0000 2625N 08928W 03017 5160 134 101 110 104 102 02844 0000000000
0000. 2624N 08929W 03020 5173 134 104 106 106 104 02835 0000000000
0001 2622N 08930W 03015 5185 132 105 098 098 107 02816 0000000000
0001. 2621N 08931W 03019 5202 134 110 102 102 112 02804 0000000000
0002 2620N 08932W 03016 5220 135 114 110 110 115 02783 0000000000
0002. 2619N 08933W 03025 5239 135 114 098 098 116 02773 0000000000
0003 2618N 08934W 03011 5261 134 119 102 102 120 02736 0000000000
0003. 2617N 08935W 03018 5282 134 119 106 106 120 02723 0000000000
0004 2616N 08936W 03019 5307 133 119 100 100 121 02699 0000000000
0004. 2615N 08937W 03014 5326 137 123 102 102 123 02675 0000000000
0005 2614N 08938W 03018 5350 141 122 112 112 122 02655 0000000000
0005. 2613N 08939W 03018 5369 144 115 130 130 121 02635 0000000000
0006 2612N 08940W 03018 5391 144 107 136 136 110 02613 0000000000
0006. 2611N 08942W 03017 5418 143 103 148 124 104 02586 0000000000
0007 2610N 08943W 03017 5445 145 104 146 118 106 02559 0000000000
0007. 2609N 08945W 03016 5480 146 106 150 122 106 02523 0000000000
0008 2608N 08946W 03019 5520 146 109 150 128 110 02485 0000000000
0008. 2607N 08947W 03022 5562 145 092 152 152 100 02447 0000000000
0009 2606N 08949W 03008 5593 148 069 160 160 077 02402 0000000000



123kts.

[cycloneye]

SXXX50 KNHC 230018
AF306 WX18A RITA01 HDOB 44 KNHC
0007 2505N 08927W 02440 5093 234 068 110 110 071 02391 0000000000
0007. 2506N 08925W 02440 5092 232 066 118 118 068 02391 0000000000
0008 2507N 08923W 02440 5093 233 063 116 116 068 02391 0000000000
0008. 2508N 08920W 02437 5091 228 063 132 132 063 02389 0000000000
0009 2510N 08918W 02441 5091 227 070 146 140 073 02394 0000000000
0009. 2511N 08916W 02439 5091 224 073 140 140 074 02392 0000000000
0010 2513N 08914W 02442 5093 224 073 126 126 075 02392 0000000000
0010. 2514N 08912W 02439 5094 222 078 116 116 081 02388 0000000000
0011 2516N 08910W 02438 5093 219 080 142 130 080 02389 0000000000
0011. 2518N 08909W 02442 5091 216 078 148 124 079 02394 0000000000
0012 2520N 08910W 02437 5098 216 070 144 128 073 02382 0000000000
0012. 2521N 08911W 02441 5101 216 066 146 138 068 02384 0000000000
0013 2522N 08913W 02438 5109 212 065 128 128 068 02372 0000000000
0013. 2523N 08914W 02441 5112 216 061 140 136 063 02372 0000000000
0014 2524N 08915W 02439 5117 216 064 146 140 065 02366 0000000000
0014. 2526N 08917W 02440 5122 218 065 148 138 066 02362 0000000000
0015 2527N 08918W 02439 5129 222 066 148 142 066 02353 0000000000
0015. 2528N 08919W 02442 5135 221 067 148 144 067 02350 0000000000
0016 2529N 08921W 02449 5138 220 066 150 142 067 02354 0000000000
0016. 2531N 08922W 02447 5142 220 068 150 134 070 02348 0000000000

[cycloneye]

SXXX50 KNHC 230026
AF309 2018A RITA HDOB 16 KNHC
0009. 2605N 08950W 03019 5615 145 053 162 162 057 02390 0000000000
0010 2604N 08952W 03018 5633 142 038 162 162 043 02371 0000000000
0010. 2603N 08953W 03013 5645 140 022 164 164 029 02355 0000000000
0011 2602N 08955W 03019 5651 141 005 164 164 010 02353 0000000000
0011. 2600N 08956W 03016 5649 297 007 162 162 011 02353 0000000000
0012 2559N 08958W 03017 5644 305 019 164 164 025 02360 0000000000
0012. 2558N 08959W 03018 5632 308 034 164 162 040 02372 0000000000
0013 2557N 09000W 03017 5613 313 052 168 160 057 02390 0000000000
0013. 2555N 09002W 03020 5583 316 071 168 160 081 02422 0000000000
0014 2554N 09003W 03013 5544 314 089 154 154 093 02455 0000000000
0014. 2553N 09004W 03018 5503 314 100 158 140 101 02501 0000000000
0015 2552N 09005W 03019 5476 315 097 154 140 100 02529 0000000000
0015. 2551N 09007W 03015 5431 316 095 144 134 095 02571 0000000000
0016 2550N 09008W 03019 5401 315 093 140 128 094 02605 0000000000
0016. 2549N 09009W 03018 5374 317 091 138 134 093 02630 0000000000
0017 2547N 09011W 03027 5345 327 093 114 114 105 02669 0000000100
0017. 2546N 09012W 03001 5305 315 115 084 084 123 02684 0000000100
0018 2545N 09013W 03018 5289 311 097 088 088 098 02716 0000000100
0018. 2544N 09014W 03024 5264 321 110 108 108 110 02747 0000000000
0019 2543N 09016W 03015 5247 323 108 110 110 110 02755 0000000000



Vortex comming.

[Raebie]

Tease.

[cycloneye]

URNT12 KNHC 230029
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/00:10:50Z
B. 26 deg 02 min N
089 deg 55 min W
C. 700 mb 2360 m
D. NA kt
E. 460 deg 033 nm
F. 137 deg 123 kt
G. 050 deg 020 nm
H. 915 mb
I. 10 C/ 3020 m
J. 17 C/ 3014 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. OPEN NW
M. CO17-32
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 2018A RITA OB 05
MAX FL WIND 123 KT NE QUAD 00:04:20 Z
INNER EYEWALL IS VERY RAGGED AND OPEN NE-SE

[Brent]

Looks like the ERC is about ready to finish...

[soonertwister]

I was just about to say the same thing. Maybe the winds will match pressure readings sometime later tonight.

[cycloneye]

Looks like the ERC is about ready to finish...

I would hope that this ERC would be just before landfall not now.