Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

Humm, interresting info:
Loading the latest weather forecast of our neighbour of Martinca this morning, they anticipate a direct impact in our island . Should it verifies first, let's wait a bit but if if if this trends continues, alerts will be on tape, busy days ahead...

Sat pic of the Lesser Antilles...

[msbee]

Good Morning
It seems like it's not safe to sleep any more.
While I am sleeping, TD 2 which fell apart now becomes TS Ana?
Damn!
I got this message early this morning from a weather corespondent in Anguilla:

Nice to go to bed without a care in the world and wake up to the first
Tropical Storm of the season due to impact Anguilla on Monday. That's
exactly where we are now!
TD 2 is now TS Ana. It is expected
that a Tropical Storm Watch will be issued for Anguilla later today. Ana
is currently tracking due west and the revised 3 day forecast would make a
direct hit a strong possibility. Predicted windspeed as it passes is now
65mph. Do not be surprised if this makes hurricane before passing close by
sometime during the middle of the day Monday although this is not
currently forecast.
The public advisory follows.
Regards
Roy
---
WTNT32 KNHC 150836
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
500 AM AST
SAT AUG 15 2009

...ANA FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN...

INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF
TROPICAL STORM ANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY
YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900
UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6
NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.8 WEST OR ABOUT 1010
MILES...1630 KM...EAST OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16
MPH...26 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS
FORECAST TRACK ANA COULD
BE APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON
MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR NEXT
48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM NOAA BUOY
41041 IS 1005
MB...29.68 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.6N 46.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...1005 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.
_______________________________________________

[Gustywind]

Good Morning
It seems like it's not safe to sleep any more.
While I am sleeping, TD 2 which fell apart now becomes TS Ana?
Damn!
I got this message early this morning from a weather corespondent in Anguilla:

Nice to go to bed without a care in the world and wake up to the first
Tropical Storm of the season due to impact Anguilla on Monday. That's
exactly where we are now!
TD 2 is now TS Ana. It is expected
that a Tropical Storm Watch will be issued for Anguilla later today. Ana
is currently tracking due west and the revised 3 day forecast would make a
direct hit a strong possibility. Predicted windspeed as it passes is now
65mph. Do not be surprised if this makes hurricane before passing close by
sometime during the middle of the day Monday although this is not
currently forecast.
The public advisory follows.
Regards
Roy
---
WTNT32 KNHC 150836
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
500 AM AST
SAT AUG 15 2009

...ANA FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN...

INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF
TROPICAL STORM ANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY
YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900
UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6
NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.8 WEST OR ABOUT 1010
MILES...1630 KM...EAST OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16
MPH...26 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS
FORECAST TRACK ANA COULD
BE APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON
MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR NEXT
48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM NOAA BUOY
41041 IS 1005
MB...29.68 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.6N 46.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...1005 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.
_______________________________________________

Tkanks Msbee

[Gustywind]

That's not the latest TWO as TD2 has grown and have been classified TS ANA. 90L is fairly orgarnized this morning i won't be surprised to see TD 3 during the next hours given the improvement trend...
000
ABNT20 KNHC 150535
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY-
REGENERATED TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...LOCATED ABOUT 1075 MILES EAST
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.


SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
ABOUT 475 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION MAY BE FORMING. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTHWARD ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 150942
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
542 AM AST SAT AUG 15 2009

SKIES WERE PARTLY CLOUDY AROUND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS PASSED THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS AND LEFT .09 INCHES AT THE
HENRY E. ROHLSEN AIRPORT IN SAINT CROIX. THIS CAUSED THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE TO LOWER TO 75 DEGREES. WINDS HAVE BEEN 5 TO 12 MPH
SINCE MIDNIGHT FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST.

TODAY...SATURDAY...THE SCATTERED SHOWERS SEEN THIS MORNING WILL
TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 90S IN THE WARMEST LOWER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID 80S IN
THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN REGIONS.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...WAS DECLARED TO BE TROPICAL STORM ANA AT
5AM AST THIS MORNING BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. CURRENTLY
IT IS FORECAST TO TRACK WITHIN 30 MILES OF SAINT THOMAS ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
OTHER...AS YET UNDEVELOPED...TROPICAL SYSTEMS WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY
THURSDAY AND SATURDAY OF THIS WEEK. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN SAN JUAN WILL ISSUE MORE ON THESE SYSTEMS AND THE RAINFALL
EXPECTED FROM THEM WHEN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF ANA AND
POSSIBLE SUBSEQUENT SYSTEMS ARE BETTER KNOWN. IN THE
MEANTIME...RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGED TO MAKE PRELIMINARY
PREPARATIONS FOR INCLEMENT WEATHER. FOR MORE DETAILS PLEASE
CONSULT OUR LOCAL WEBSITE AND A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...UNTIL
MONDAY WITH NEAR SHORE WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 4 FEET...AND SOME
OFFSHORE AREAS HAVING SEAS OF 5 TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 18
KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY IN MOST
OUTER WATERS AND THE WATERS AROUND THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
MAY SPREAD SOUTHWEST FROM THERE.

$$

[Gustywind]

Very interresting info, read it carefully...000
FXCA62 TJSJ 151004
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
604 AM AST SAT AUG 15 2009

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL STORM ANA WILL APPROACH THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN SUNDAY NIGHT. A VERY STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WAS LOCATED 475
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DETECTED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WAS OCCURRING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH SOME SHOWERS
AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AND
THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS. A NORTHEAST WIND FLOW PRODUCED BY A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA...IS TRANSPORTING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. LATEST MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM
CIMSS SHOWS A LINE OF MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS...NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE SOMEWHAT THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY.
HOWEVER...SUNDAY LOOKS DRIER THAN TODAY. IN FACT...LATEST PROGNOSIS
SOUNDINGS INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR 1.30
INCHES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST VALUES
FROM CIMSS. HOWEVER...THIS DRY WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

IMPORTANT CHANGES HAS BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
THE LAST 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM ANA...THE FIRST NAMED STORM OF
THE 2009 HURRICANE SEASON IS BORN. AT 5:00 AM AST THIS
MORNING...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES
EAST SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. LATEST NHC OFFICIAL TRACK...PASS ANA
BETWEEN 35-50 MILES NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF ANA...WILL MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM MOVING ON A
WESTWARD TRACK AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. LATER...SOME
COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN A
LITTLE...PRODUCING A MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK OF THE STORM. IF
THIS NOT HAPPEN...THEN...THE TROPICAL STORM WILL MOVE FURTHER
SOUTH...AND THE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA MORE STRONGER.
IN ANY WAYS...ANA IS EXPECTED TO PASS CLOSE ENOUGH FROM OUR
FORECAST AREA...TO PRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ON MONDAY.

BEHIND TROPICAL STORM ANA...ANOTHER SYSTEM...A VERY STRONG
TROPICAL WAVE...HAVE A HIGH CHANCE TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
LATER TODAY. LATEST COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
TRACK WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT...MAINLY WHEN THE
SYSTEM REACH 50 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE...THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY TRACK...PASSING THE CENTER NEAR 150 MILES NORTHEAST
OF THE LOCAL AREA. LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS SUGGESTS THAT THIS
DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWER...AND ALSO WILL BE LESS
STRONGER...THAN PREVIOUS COMPUTER MODEL RUNS. A WEAKNESS IN THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE...IF FORECAST BY MOST OF THE COMPUTER MODELS IN THE
LONG RANGE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA. IF THE SYSTEM MOVE
SLOWER...IT WILL REACH THE WEAKNESS BY THAT TIME...AND WILL TEND
TO MOVE MORE ON A NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT. HOWEVER...IF THE SYSTEM
MOVE FASTER THAN INDICATED BY THE MODELS...THE RIDGE WILL BE
INTACT AND MORE STRONGER WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MOVE
CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA.
DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE TRACKS OF BOTH SYSTEMS...RESIDENTS
OF PR AND THE USVI ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR LATEST FORECASTS FROM
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER OVER THE WEEKEND AND GO OVER THEIR
HURRICANE DISASTER PLANS IN CASE THE THREAT FROM THESE TWO
TROPICAL SYSTEMS BECOMES MORE REAL.

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 61W BUT MAINLY SOUTH OF 15 NORTH
WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN 15/18Z AND 16/00Z
SPREADING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO AND INTERIOR MOUNTAIN SECTIONS AS
CLOUDS DEVELOP AND OBSCURE THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN TOPS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 79 89 80 / 40 30 30 60
STT 89 80 91 79 / 40 20 30 60

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

$$

12/71

[caribepr]

Time for Plan A to go into action...saving B and C for tomorrow if needed!

[Gustywind]

Time for Plan A to go into action...saving B and C for tomorrow if needed!

Seems highly possible my friend but that's it if this these menacing features continue to approach our area!

[cycloneye]

Oh boy Barbara,the eye passes over ST Marteen as a major hurricane.But the models change their data constantly but is worrisom.This is not for Ana but 90L.

[caribepr]

Ouch, Luis!!! Hope that changes, Barbara

[Gustywind]

Humm 90L continues to be south...and looking fairly well organized





Here is the latest from NRL site:
20090815.0945.90LINVEST.30kts-1007mb-118N-320W
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... ap&TYPE=ir

Tnumbers are showing TD status this morning:

15/0615 UTC 12.0N 32.0W T2.0/2.0 90L

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 151144
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY-
UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM ANA...LOCATED ABOUT 1010 MILES EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
ABOUT 600 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION MAY BE FORMING. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT

[Gustywind]

Pretty worrisom for you Msbee once again...

[Gustywind]

ANA





Looking pretty good...










000
AXNT20 KNHC 151144
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS UPGRADED AT 15/0900 UTC TO TROPICAL
STORM. TROPICAL STORM ANA IS CENTERED NEAR 14.6N 46.8W AT
15/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 1010 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MOVING W AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUST TO 45 KT.
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM IN THE SW SEMICIRCLE.


$$
WALLACE

[Gustywind]

90L...APPROACHING TD STATUS?[/size]

Very good sat/pic appearence...


Looks like close to TD status...but let's wait as usual




Looks like another guest on Africa...


Things are heatig up...
000
AXNT20 KNHC 151144
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

[size=150]TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N32W TO 7N29W WITH A 1009 MB LOW
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM LATER TODAY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS TO THE W OF THE LOW FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 32W-36W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-11N
BETWEEN 30W-38W.
§§
WALLACE

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

From a carib islander...on the weat site of Stormcarib
- IT'S GOING TO BE A WILD WEEK!
From: "Anguilla Severe Weather Alert" <steve at anguilla-weather.com>
Date: Sat, 15 Aug 2009 08:41:00 -0400

There are now 2 threats out there to worry about – reformed TD#2 (now TS Ana), and probably later today, TD#3.



TD#2 first. This was downgraded yesterday but gathered enough strength to be renamed TD#2 last night, and now Tropical Storm Ana this morning. Best guess by forecasters is a high end tropical storm mid-day Monday passing very close to Anguilla – we are right in the center of the 5 day cone. Good news is they have it slightly to our north, and the highest winds are to the north of the storm. Also, if this trend continues, the largest swells will be on the north coastline – 10 feet or so based on the latest marine forecast. Bad news - watch this one very closely – models have it everywhere from falling apart up to a cat 2 hurricane. A Tropical Storm watch may be required for AXA later today - Anguilla Disaster Management has issued Bulletin #1 on Ana, so appears they are getting prepared. As always, prepare for the worst, hope for the best.



Right on the heels of TS Ana is Invest 90, which will probably be TD#3 sometime today. But this system is still some 1,900 miles to our east, and has a long way to go –so a lot can change. Good news here is that the models are now shifting this system a little north of Anguilla, but still pretty close. We’ll know a lot more about this system in the next day or 2, but this could easily be a Cat 2 hurricane by the time it reaches 63 degrees west, possibly passing over the islands.



As always, continue to check the NHC website at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml for both of these storms.



Steve Donahue

Anguilla, AI2640, B.W.I.

US Phone – 410-505-8661

Anguilla Phone – 264-497-8177

Websites – http://www.anguilla-weather.com & http://www.anguilla-diving.com




http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/curre ... illa.shtml

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
911 AM AST SAT AUG 15 2009

.UPDATE...UPDATED TO INCLUDE TROPICAL WIND PROBABILITIES FROM TPC
GRIDS BRINGING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WORDING INTO
THE MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD. TROPICAL STORM ANA FIRST CONCERN ON THE
LIST THIS MORNING...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A SPREAD FROM JUST SOUTH
OF PUERTO RICO (AND USVI) TO JUST NORTH. OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
TRACKS SYSTEM JUST NORTH...BRINGING TROPICAL STORM FORCED WINDS
THROUGH THE VI...NORTHERN PR...ALL EASTERN CARIBBEAN PASSAGES AND
ATLANTIC WATERS. EARLY CYCLE 12Z MODELS HAVE SHIFTED AL90 (THE
NEXT SYSTEM) A BIT FARTHER TO THE RIGHT...BETTER NEWS FOR PR AND
THE US. THIS KEEPS IN LINE WITH THE 00Z AND 06Z LATE CYCLE (MORE
RELIABLE) RUNS. THIS MAY BE A TEMPORARY TREND...WILL LOOK FORWARD
TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK ONCE THE NHC INITIATES THIS SYSTEM.

[caribsue]

Hey Gusty and Cycloneye,

Just wanna say my thoughts are with you guys and the rest of the northern island family. Hopefully it will go away and not affect you. Stay safe people.

ps... .you too msbee

[Gustywind]

Hey Gusty and Cycloneye,

Just wanna say my thoughts are with you guys and the rest of the northern island family. Hopefully it will go away and not affect you. Stay safe people.

ps... .you too msbee

Tkanks a lot my friend , we appreciate your thoughts while we continue to monitor the progress of these two menacing systems... Whereas you should watch closely these systems too, they don't want to gain to much latitude, we never knows, jog, wobble, there's always mystery and uncertitudes...Stay safe too my friend, you can post any infos too as usual .