Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[poof121]

Take a look at this buoy at 26N 86W, pressures dropping considerably, winds increasing, not quite TS force, but getting there.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003

[jhamps10]

well Fox for a change NOT on the hype machine with this.

[chadtm80]

Link to the buoys in the area.. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Florida.shtml

[dixiebreeze]

Pressure: 29.79 in / 1008.7 hPa (Falling)

Steadily falling all day here in Crystal River (about 20 nautical miles from Cedar Key)

[eaglegirl]

WHUS52 KTBW 201845
SMWTBW
GMZ853-201930-
/O.NEW.KTBW.MA.W.0114.070920T1845Z-070920T1930Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
245 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM.

* UNTIL 330 PM EDT

* AT 246 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM...CONTAINING A WATERSPOUT...5 MILES SOUTH OF SIESTA
KEY...MOVING NORTH AT 20 KNOTS.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
LONGBOAT PASS BY 325 PM EDT.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE WATERSPOUTS WITH LITTLE OR NO
ADVANCE WARNING. SEEK SAFETY IMMEDIATELY!

WIND GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS WILL OCCUR...PRODUCING VERY HIGH WAVES. IF AT
SEA...GO BELOW DECK UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. OTHERS SHOULD REMAIN
IN PORT.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COAST GUARD. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN RUSKIN.

&&

LAT...LON 2743 8286 2748 8267 2747 8266 2718 8247
2717 8250 2716 8250 2717 8253 2715 8257
2713 8267
TIME...MOT...LOC 1846Z 164DEG 19KT 2724 8260

$$

55

[Wx_Warrior]

I am still on alert...I think it's going to be a close call for TX/LA border...Circulation is going to be found further south I'm afraid. Hope I'm wrong. This thing is stalled.

New EURO has Grand Isle Louisiana (edited)

[Steve]

>>New EURO has Grand Isle Louisiana on Sunday eve...

That changes everything and adds a day to potential. Hmmmm.....

Steve

[stormchazer]

Here in Lakeland area pressures even lower down to 29.68in Hg from 29.88 same time yesterday.

[rockyman]

James Spann's afternoon update

[Steve]

>>That changes everything and adds a day to potential. Hmmmm.....

I clicked on the link. Unless you have the numerical plots, it appears to landfall Saturday morning and not Sunday evening.

Steve

[CrazyC83]

Based on recon, it is about 2/3 the way to a closed circulation so far - a southwest or south wind would make such.

[hurricanetrack]

I am still on alert...I think it's going to be a close call for TX/LA border...Circulation is going to be found further south I'm afraid. Hope I'm wrong. This thing is stalled.

New EURO has Grand Isle Louisiana (edited)

Which new Euro- 0z or 12z? As of right this second, I cannot find 12z.

[micktooth]

I see a couple of "swirls" on radar. Is the surface Low NW or SW of Tampa?

[Wx_Warrior]

12z EURO

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html

[DESTRUCTION5]

I am still on alert...I think it's going to be a close call for TX/LA border...Circulation is going to be found further south I'm afraid. Hope I'm wrong. This thing is stalled.

New EURO has Grand Isle Louisiana (edited)

Which new Euro- 0z or 12z? As of right this second, I cannot find 12z.

I think if you and MW head to N.O.area you should have a safe bet at some action..

[jeff]

There are multiple eddy vorts rotating around a large mean circulation center

[eaglegirl]

I see a couple of "swirls" on radar. Is the surface Low NW or SW of Tampa?

I just received this, perhaps it is what you are seeing?


FZUS72 KTBW 201909
MWSTBW

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
309 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2007

GMZ830-853-202015-
309 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2007

THIS STATEMENT INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS:

COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM.
INCLUDING THE TAMPA BAY WATERS.

..AND IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT.

AT 309 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS...3
MILES NORTHWEST OF NEW PASS...MOVING NORTH AT 20 KNOTS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE WATERSPOUTS WITH LITTLE OR NO
ADVANCE WARNING. SEEK SAFETY IMMEDIATELY!

MARINERS CAN EXPECT LOCALLY HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...AND
TORRENTIAL RAIN. SEEK SAFETY IMMEDIATELY.

&&

LAT...LON 2780 8274 2772 8266 2775 8266 2783 8263
2750 8256 2750 8262 2746 8263 2742 8256
2733 8252 2728 8271 2775 8292
TIME...MOT...LOC 1909Z 164DEG 17KT 2739 8264

$$

57

[Ed Mahmoud]

I see a couple of "swirls" on radar. Is the surface Low NW or SW of Tampa?

NHC initialized the inhouse models at 27.1ºN and 84.4ºW. All 3 versions of the BAM are NW to NNW movement, landfall about 86º to 87º, except LBAR gets a little closer to New Orleans. But I haven't seen LBAR do a good job yet, compared to the other models.

[CrazyC83]

Based on Recon, a closed circulation has been found it appears.

[lrak]

were does it "appear" to be?