ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Blown Away]

8am: HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT

[HURAKAN]

"I'M BACK!!!"

[dizzyfish]

The invest that wouldn't die!


LOL

Sorry - couldn't resist.

[Blown Away]

What is the latest position and forward speed for 94L?

[Thunder44]

ABNT20 KNHC 161145
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 335 MILES NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TODAY. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

This invest area is also back in red.

[Extremeweatherguy]

[bob rulz]

I must say this is one of the most interesting invests of recent memory. Although I have no idea if it has an LLC, it looks like a genuine tropical depression to the naked eye when just 4 hours ago it was pretty much a scattering of clouds. It even looks like it's trying to wrap a band around that north side.

[Extremeweatherguy]

94L does seem to have plenty of its once-missing ingredient this morning...

Low-level convergence: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8conv.html

There is also a nice area of Upper-level divergence too: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dvg.html

[NDG]

Barbados reports should give us some good information, whether the Reconn gets there or not, I am estimating if indeed this system has a circulation center, which by looking at the vis sat loop this morning, I do believe closed or getting closed off this morning, will be passing through or close by to that Island in about 10 hrs from now.
Wind from the NE (050 degrees) at 12 MPH (10 KT)
Visibility 3 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Light rain showers
Showers in the vicinity
Temperature 80 F (27 C)
Dew Point 78 F (26 C)
Relative Humidity 94%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.91 in. Hg (1013 hPa)

[NDG]

What is the latest position and forward speed for 94L?

I am estimating it to be around 13N & 56W, moving a good 18-20knot W

[Gustywind]

"I'M BACK!!!"

Where are the Dead Jim posters of yesterday???? Put your hands up!
It's a yellow card , and a yellow alert for Martinica since yesterday 5pm for you're info and Guadeloupe will be on yellow too at 5pm this afternoon...

[Normandy]

Looking at visible shots I notice a couple of things: Lots of inflow coming in from the south is evident, low-level convergence is good, upper divergence is good, and shear is there but I don't think it is a problem. It also seems close to closing off something, but its very hard to tell. All in all I would say this might get upgraded today.

[tolakram]

This reminds me of that famous invest last year. We watched that blob for a while.

Because of that experience my personal rule is to never get excited unless someone can prove there is a closed off low at the surface. Without the low all you have is a pretty blob.

[ts_kakolina]

:uarrow: Key word in that graphic is "possible". Not "definite". The circle will stay there until the NHC downgrades it in the TWO.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2008

...
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TODAY. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

Where is the downgrade? This TWO (8:00am) sounds more promising than the previous one (2:00am).

[Gustywind]

"I'M BACK!!!"

IT'S NOT DEAD JIM always there and us in East Carib continue to monitor the system carefully....we should not apparently experience a TD but but but as usual keeping a close eye on this near the islands .....Note that Martinica has required an yellow alert since yesterday night.
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
7am much more convection on this nice pertubed area....
Martinica has put an yellow alert since yesterday night 5 pm..for strong winds ( 40 to 60 km sustained winds)with gusts to 80 to 100 km per hour in some areas) and showers added to thunderstorms.Waves should approach 2 meters 50 and a little more.
And us in Guadeloupe will pass this afternoon in yellow alert too given the latest weather forecast of our Pro Met at Meteo France for strong winds showers/ thunderstorms.
We stay tuned here in Guadeloupe because of the better organization of the system approaching the windwards islands.....

[HurricaneRobert]

This reminds me of that famous invest last year. We watched that blob for a while.

Because of that experience my personal rule is to never get excited unless someone can prove there is a closed off low at the surface. Without the low all you have is a pretty blob.

Felix? That was also 94L, I think.

[NDG]

This reminds me of that famous invest last year. We watched that blob for a while.

Because of that experience my personal rule is to never get excited unless someone can prove there is a closed off low at the surface. Without the low all you have is a pretty blob.

By looking at the vis sat loop, there is a closed off low and unlike Sunday night it is at the surface.

[Innotech]

what. did. I. tell. you. guys? Dont. give. up. until. the. thing. is. really. dead.

Now I have to go to work. And now this storms path becomes interesting.

[WmE]

This reminds me of that famous invest last year. We watched that blob for a while.

Because of that experience my personal rule is to never get excited unless someone can prove there is a closed off low at the surface. Without the low all you have is a pretty blob.

Felix? That was also 94L, I think.

Yeah Felix was nothing spectacular at the beginning. It was only a weak tropical wave, that at the beginning failed to get its act together, but once it approached the Windward Islands it bombed out. I'm not saying this will happen with this though.

[Gustywind]

Absolutely Hurricane Robert you're right that was near the 30th of August if my head does not deceiving me, a pimpy wave popping tremendously hours after hours near the south of the windwards islands....with the story that we all know! If there's no TD today how lucky we are, but it's July....If we were in August it would be a TD with in theory much more better conditions...