ATL: IKE Discussion

[jlauderdal]

New UKMET is in, no recurve, and right off of the SE FL coast at the end of the run, looks like near Palm Beach and Broward counties. This with the new GFS and GFDL is worrying me.

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_09.gif

Okay Folks the consensus is gradually becoming better with the 12Z guidance.....if you haven't noticed and not good news from Southern Florida still.

I think the NHC shifts the cone just south at the 5pm EST advisory and extends the forecast point farther west....giving respect to the GFDL and UKMET following closely to the ECMWF guidance.

i think gatorcane is correct, i was surprised they left things alone at 11 but at some point sooner rather than later they will need to make an adjustment based on what they have

[fci]

[quote="Blown_away
I'm a big believer in the Hebert Box for SFL (20N/60W), Andrew is an exception and he barely missed this box. Ike will be in a league all his own if he makes it to SFL. Andrew made it to a much higher latitude than Ike will before hitting SFL. I'm betting on Paul Hebert's theory!!

If I understand the Hebert Box theory correctly it is not a predictive tool to determine weather or not a storm will hit SFL. The logic of the theory intuitavely works backwards in that it states that most major canes that have struck SFL came thru the box. It does not state that most majors that come thru the box strike SFL.[/quote]

Nice job.
That was one of the shortest most concise statements about the Hebert Box I have seen.
Thank you.

[gatorcane]

To be fair the NHC is only going to make slight adjustments each advisory unless the model consensus makes a drastic swing.....

I knew when I saw the NHC shift the cone ever-so-slightly left at the 11AM that it was not a good thing.

[KWT]

Yep NHC will probably shift a little south now the UKMO has fallen inline and the ECM has shifted so far back WSW that it now makes a big landfall in Cuba and stays over there for a good day...

The trend suggests a bigger threat to south Florida again...

[gatorcane]

Yep NHC will probably shift a little south now the UKMO has fallen inline and the ECM has shifted so far back WSW that it now makes a big landfall in Cuba and stays over there for a good day...

The trend suggests a bigger threat to south Florida again...

No doubt the current model consensus depicts now Ike would have South Florida in his eyes...

plenty of time for things to change though.

Clearly models are detecting more ridging that originally progged and less of a recurve possibility.

[KWT]

I think thats pretty obvious that was going to occur now gatorcane given how much weaker Hanna is in truth then what the models had been prediciting. Ironically the GFDL may not be so bad as Cuba takes the main hit on its 12z run and it looks realisitic in terms of strength as well but who knows!

Early days still but the recent trends is not one you really want to be seeing as the models get into the timeframe when they still to solidify thier ideas.

[caneseddy]

Watch the media frenzy begin at 5:00 pm tonight.

I'm not panicking yet, but a little bit of panic is setting in for me, especially with the model shift west.

[tpr1967]

I would believe guys that we should start having better model agreement once we start having dropsonde missions.

[gatorcane]

Watch the media frenzy begin at 5:00 pm tonight.

I'm not panicking yet, but a little bit of panic is setting in for me, especially with the model shift west.

It's all about where they put that 5day forecast point (since so many conentrate on the line)...which the NHC has slowed down purposely until they know where they think Ike could really end up....if the point is inland Southern FL the frenzy will begin.

The hope here is that it recurves east of FL just like Hanna did...but with the 12Z guidance that hope is fading I'm afraid.....

[Lowpressure]

Watch the media frenzy begin at 5:00 pm tonight.

I'm not panicking yet, but a little bit of panic is setting in for me, especially with the model shift west.

It's all about where they put that 5day forecast point (since so many conentrate on the line)...which the NHC has slowed down purposely until they know where they think Ike could really end up....if the point is inland Southern FL the frenzy will begin.

The hope here is that it recurves east of FL just like Hanna did...but with the 12Z guidance that hope is fading I'm afraid.....

GATORCANE, they may slow it down a lot towards the 5 day point, even though the hurricane will not slow. Much like Gustav in the gulf. Keeping the point far enough off shore until they are more certain. Just my thoughts.

[KWT]

Still early enough for the models to trend the other way but I got to admit at this stage of the game you'd rather be hoping that the models would be shifting eastwards but they are going the other way again.

Ike still looking good but I think its probably just about holding steady now at 120kts, does appear to be slightly weakening again.

[GeneratorPower]

12z HWRF shows an Andrew-esque landfall location. Wow.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Bluefrog]

you know ... if the NHC "holds off" or "slows down" the 5 day end point ... what's the point of having it at all ... they should have stayed with the 3 day cone....

[El Nino]

Hi Guyz, someone in another forum is telling that he disagrees with the actual path. He thinks that Hanna and Ike will interact with each other and, because Hanna is bigger than Ike, she will eat Ike and create a big storm along the Eastern Seaboard, something like cat2-3 storm near the Carolinas. He agrees that such thing is very rare, and he has no example as a justification, except the perfect storm in 91, which was "just" a collision between the polar front and a hurricane.

What do you think ?

[Lowpressure]

you know ... if the NHC "holds off" or "slows down" the 5 day end point ... what's the point of having it at all ... they should have stayed with the 3 day cone....

I agree, but they did it last week.

[Lowpressure]

Hi Guyz, someone in another forum is telling that he disagrees with the actual path. He thinks that Hanna and Ike will interact with each other and, because Hanna is bigger than Ike, she will eat Ike and create a big storm along the Eastern Seaboard, something like cat2-3 storm near the Carolinas. He agrees that such thing is very rare, and he has no example as a justification, except the perfect storm in 91, which was "just" a collision between the polar front and a hurricane.

What do you think ?

Ah, no. It is about pressure, not the size of the system. Plus Hanna will be racing NE at that point through the maratimes.

[Bluefrog]

i know ... just seem a little ridiculous that the nhc has a 5 day tool but they choose not to use it for fear of setting the point somewhere on US land

[fci]

Watch the media frenzy begin at 5:00 pm tonight.

I'm not panicking yet, but a little bit of panic is setting in for me, especially with the model shift west.

I have a store in a mall in Palm Beach County and many customers are coming in to my store and know about Ike.
One is stocking up on "comfort food"
Another is going to fill up his gas tank "for the storm"
Another got a call from his Mom out of town telling him we are getting a storm.
Another says that there is a rush at some area stores for bottled water.

So, I think the frenzy has started.
Not a bad thing since people should get ready anyway during hurricane season.

BTW, I am still buying the recurve theory BEFORE Florida.

[HeatherAKC]

Someone in SFlorida is taking this seriously. The strip mall by my house has begun to put up it's shutters. I was just there for lunch.

[gatorcane]

Watch the media frenzy begin at 5:00 pm tonight.

BTW, I am still buying the recurve theory BEFORE Florida.

Well FCI was too as of today....the dynamic model consensus has shifted west and not east as I had hoped. Several good models call for a South FL hit now so the consensus is tightening.