ATL: IRMA - Models

[BobHarlem]

One of the GFS/Euro is going to come away from this looking really, really bad.

Maybe both, I bet this eventually heads somewhere to the middle like the ensemble clusters.

[KWT]

Hits Inagua island at 935mbs, also produces some monster winds to the T&C islands. Probably a high end cat-4 and heading right towards the north coast of Cuba.

Upper ridge also changing orientation which may help to move the system to the WNW/NW again close to Florida.

[OntarioEggplant]

High resolution Euro is 923 mb at hr 216

[gatorcane]

How the Euro ends:

[SouthFLTropics]

Hello Key West

[OntarioEggplant]

Skirting north coast of Cuba through 228 without making landfall.

[KWT]

That's a heck of a storm.

You've got that right, also it appears to be growing into quite a large storm by this point as well, something the GFS/CMC/Euro all agree on.

By that time, we'll probably have enjoyed several EWRC's to broaden the wind field.

Indeed, all models are suggesting this becomes quite a chunky hurricane by 192hrs, especially after as you say EWRC. the higher resolution models definitely hint at same EWRC towards the back end of their runs with interesting radar presentations.

[forecasterjack]

Wow. Those poor islands getting blasted by the eyewall of Irma. I couldn't imagine. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/74 ... 0600z.html

[Raebie]

Well that's not a happy ending.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Hello Key West

To quote MGC about Harvey. "If this run verifies, disaster of epic proportions."

[gatorcane]

The Euro continues to not budge on its track reasoning as I expected. We shouldn't focus on exact location this far out but certainly Florida/Cuba/Bahamas should be really paying attention. First up though might be the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico.

[Michele B]

Hello Key West

To quote MGC about Harvey. "If this run verifies, disaster of epic proportions."

Well, THIS scenario wouldn't make ME happy!

Looks too much like Charley. Went right over my house. Granted, we were fine, BUT - the roof is 13 years OLDER now! (aren't we all?) Don't want all this drama in my life....no elec....no water....no a/c....

<sigh>

[Cuda]

How the Euro ends:

What a freaking way to end. Talk about a cliffhanger. Like... what does it do after that. It just escapes all the stuff that could tear it down, gets into a spot where a recurve won't help... becomes freaking massive and is just like... 'watch this'. Does it go left into texas/mexico? North into LA/AL? Recurve over Florida? I mean... there is no where for it to go at this point that doesn't absolutely devastate someone. And I can't imagine it won't be able to intensify even further if it gets into the Gulf intact like that?!?

[KWT]

Just looking at that upper high that forms around 144hrs to the north of Irma, I've gotta say I think it is slightly overdone on the ECM run, gets it to near 600dam which is very high for this neck of the woods. Its also something ECM does occasionally overdo, and I think this run maybe overdoing it.

Either way, that is very close to being an Andrew type hit for S.Florida, really if it gets into the position it isat 144hrs and the ECM is close to being right somewhere is going to get smacked by a large, probable major hurricane.

[Dean4Storms]

The 588 and 591DM backs way down @240.... Think a final destination toward the upper Gulf Coast from New Orleans to Panama City.

[SouthFLTropics]

The GFS nor the Euro want to budge on their 6 to 10 day ideas. In the end I think they both will give a little and we end up with something in the middle.

[caneseddy]

How the Euro ends:

That is a worse case scenario storm...hits the NE Caribbean, Puerto Rico, misses Hispaniola to the north, obliterates the Southern Bahamas and then over or near Key West into the Eastern Gulf and bringing hurricane force winds it looks like into Miami-Dade County

The one thing to take from this run is that the Euro has been consistently on a major hurricane into the Southern Bahamas/South Florida area...either it is going to be a big winner or a big loser. But the fact that all the other models (with the exception of the GFS) are swinging towards the Euro gives it a lot more weight...wobble watching time next week.

[Langinbang187]

The Euro continues to not budge on its track reasoning as I expected. We shouldn't focus on exact location this far out but certainly Florida/Cuba/Bahamas should be really paying attention. First up though might be the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico.

Everywhere from the NE GOM to Atlantic Canada should be paying attention to this storm.

[OntarioEggplant]

To me extrapolating the features and curve of Irma from 216-240 hours, it would look like a central GOM landfall.

[forecasterjack]

If we end up here... https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/84 ... 0600z.html