ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

[bella_may]

wondering if Gordon is no longer stacked, and that is the mid level going off to the north and the low level still moving NW... speculation on my part but he sure does not look good on the sat loops as he had earlier..mho

We must be looking at different loops

How else do you explain the discrepancy that recon has found between flight-level winds and the low-level center? It is clearly not well stacked.

Now sure how satellite loops come into this.

Just looking at the structure and increase of thunderstorm activity around the center, it’s much improved from this morning.

[dhweather]

I suspect that shear is the only reason Gordon isn't a hurricane right now. There are some nice bursts of convection ongoing near the center, however none of that is wrapping around. I would prepare for category one hurricane conditions if I were on the Gulf Coast, and be delighted if it doesn't get worse than Tropical Storm conditions.


[i mg]http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr-2.GIF[/img]

[tolakram]

It's hard to tell but it appears shear from the south has picked up again, which is moving the MLC north of the LLC. Radar is tracking the MLC due to distance. Once again all the higher clouds to the south of the center are moving north.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=4785&y=5031&z=3&im=36&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[plasticup]

Just looking at the structure and increase of thunderstorm activity around the center, it’s much improved from this morning.

Recon isn't finding evidence of that. It is hard to say much about the internal structure of a tropical storm from a few satellite images. The plane flying right through the middle is much more useful, and finds a displaced center of circulation with only 45 knot winds. That would make it weaker. I guess we'll see what the NHC says in a couple of hours.

[SunnyThoughts]

On radar the thick red colors surrounding the center to the north and east especially look to be where the higher winds probably are...and to what wxman57 said ..it looks to me as well that its headed for Mobile bay...not much farther west than that, unless he jogs back westward.

[FLpanhandle91]

On radar the thick red colors surrounding the center to the north and east especially look to be where the higher winds probably are...and to what wxman57 said ..it looks to me as well that its headed for Mobile bay...not much farther west than that, unless he jogs back westward.

Yep I believe that is the LLC. It does appear it is trying to organize though.

[Steve]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv-mid

One possible explanation for an earlier and farther eastern landfall could be influence of a weak upper level low in central Tennessee which is lifting WNW/NW ahead of Gordon. It's crossing (over?) the east-to-west cigar ridge and lifting up toward southern Indiana and Illinois. I still think it will come in west of Mobile Bay, but it may be farther east than the consensus of Hancock or Harrison County that many of the models have shown.

Also, looks like some fairly cold cloudtops on the IR.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[HurricaneEnzo]

Don’t blow my head off, but in my opinion, this is just not as strong as the NHC has it. Looks more like 45 kt, 1005 mb to me at this point.

Truthfully most of the storm is probably around this strength. There are some smaller pockets of more intense winds though.

[MississippiWx]

This has a pronounced northerly movement as the center keeps attempting to consolidate in the convection. Got a hunch this comes ashore in Alabama.

[Steve]

This has a pronounced northerly movement as the center keeps attempting to consolidate in the convection. Got a bunch this comes ashore in Alabama.

It well could be. The 12z RGEM did anticipate the pull north and then it bolts almost due west along the coast. I think it's too far west, but it has had a handle on the 1-2 day radar depictions and track the last couple of days. If it gets it right, I'll have some new respect for the CMC's regional products.

The RGEM 12Z:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 90412&fh=6

[StormTracker]

well this radar loop sure looks interesting... did the center relocate to the NE, or my eyes deceiving me...
https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

That's what it looks like to me. Very interesting. It happened quickly.

looks like I'll wait awhile before I take down my porch ceiling fans... no need to if it hits to my east... which would be just fine by me...

I had to make that same decision last year with Irma. All I did was take the blades off. That way there's no spin. Don't take everything down...ST

[EquusStorm]

Well clearly my regrets in not booking it to the AL coast yesterday are deepening, heh

[tropicwatch]

One more recon for the day. Scheduled to take off around 5pm central.

[tolakram]

The northward jog has been modeled, the latest Euro shows it as well (models thread). HWRF takes it inland at the AL/MS border, Euro takes it inland at Gulfport.

[Frank P]

me thinks the mid level is off to the Panhandle and taking the LLC with it?? ... my opinion only... note: been wrong before!
WTH is going on with this storm?

[StormTracker]

I'm seeing the same thing, but then again, who am I?

[tolakram]

LLC is now exposed, the only convection near it appears to be on the east side of the circulation.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso2-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[tolakram]

SLIDER closeup

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_02&x=1197&y=1227&z=2&im=24&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[slamdaddy]

wonder what the next NHC advisory is goin to look like

[Jag95]

LLC is now exposed, the only convection near it appears to be on the east side of the circulation.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso2-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

You can see the southerly shear pretty well on that loop. Not a lot, but just enough I guess.