ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Just checked GFS on approach.
Absolutely no dry-air entrainment.
Same Rossby-Wave interaction as yesterday.
ARWB still over FL.
HWRF and HMON show completely saturated eyewalls to 150mb.

[Dean4Storms]

Recon 980mb?

[NDG]

According to COAMPS, intensity should peak out sometimes early afternoon.

The interesting part is the the Euro showing pressures still falling after making landfall.

Speed, then Passing over Marsh then Lake Ponchatrain??? Could that be why?

Probably.

[Stormgodess]

This is very concerning. Classic cyan ring. We shall see if shear can increase quickly enough to prevent further RI, but yikes.

https://twitter.com/mikefischerwx/status/1321380457162952705

The HWRF and ECMWF show Zeta moving parallel to the shear vectors up until landfall, hence continued intensification on those models till landfall.

Do either of those models also have surge predictions? With this intensification, Im really worried about surge for those along the coast, an on the north shore of the lakes.

[Stormgodess]

Wow I feel awful for people on the Gulf Coast this year. They have not been catching any breaks, the Gulf has just been a monster this year. The constant threats must be exhausting.

A lot of us have prepping (and 2020) fatigue, and probably didn’t prep as thoroughly as usual this time. Then again a lot of us were still mostly prepped from being in the cross-hairs six times already. There are a couple of things I did not move out of the yard yesterday that I’m going to go bring inside right now based on the 0400 advisory. Sigh.

Yeh I know I still have Jugs of water stacked in my dining room. The thing that worries me is the storm fatigue and people not getting out that would have normally left knowing it would intensify to this extent.

[bella_may]

Any new info out on Track? Spaghetti models?

I wouldn’t expect any more shifts with the track unless something crazy happens. It’s following the NHC track pretty close right now

[supercane4867]

According to COAMPS, intensity should peak out sometimes early afternoon.

The interesting part is the the Euro showing pressures still falling after making landfall.

A fast moving system in front of a sweeping trough providing strong upper level divergence is the ideal recipe for intensification upon landfall.

[xironman]

According to COAMPS, intensity should peak out sometimes early afternoon.

The interesting part is the the Euro showing pressures still falling after making landfall.

A fast moving system in front of a sweeping trough providing strong upper level divergence is the ideal recipe for intensification upon landfall.

I was thinking there could be some baroclinic enhancement

[GCANE]

Eye is drying out.
63% RH
Elliptical, closed 24 x16 nm

[bella_may]

Eye is drying out.
63% RH
Elliptical, closed 24 x16 nm

You said drying out and I got excited until I realized it’s not a good thing

[GCANE]

Theata-e strengthening and deepening.
Intensification could continue for the next 8 hrs.

[GCANE]

:roll:

Eye is drying out.
63% RH
Elliptical, closed 24 x16 nm

You said drying out and I got excited until I realized it’s not a good thing

Unfortunately not, I am sorry.
Please stay safe.

[GCANE]

Eye more circular now on IR.
Looks like there are 5 mesovorts.

[GCANE]

Approaching H3 on ADT

[supercane4867]

[Nimbus]

They expect this to reach category two sometime in the next 8 hours and with the forward speed the east side of the storm is going to maintain much of that intensity through landfall.

000
WTNT43 KNHC 280900
TCDAT3

Hurricane Zeta Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
400 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

The satellite presentation of Zeta has improved significantly
overnight with deep convection wrapping around an eye that at times
as been fairly well defined. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft that has just began its reconnaissance mission into Zeta
has reported a pressure that has fallen to 982 mb and a 25-30
n-mi-wide eye during it first pass through the center. It is
somewhat surprising that the plane did not report stronger winds
during its northeast eyewall pass given the improved satellite
presentation, and using a blend of the aircraft data and recent
objective and subjective satellite estimates yields and initial
intensity of 75 kt. It is possible the winds have yet to catch up
to the improved satellite appearance, but since Zeta will moving
over warm waters and in a light wind shear environment this morning
some additional strengthening is likely. Although cooler waters
and increasing southwesterly upper-level winds over the northern
Gulf of Mexico are likely to cause the cyclone's intensity to
level-off or even come down slightly, Zeta is expected to reach the
northern Gulf coast as significant hurricane by late this afternoon.
The NHC intensity forecast is at the upper-end of the guidance, a
little above the latest HWRF prediction. After landfall, Zeta will
weaken while it moves over the southeastern United States, but the
cyclone is forecast to become an extratropical gale-force low
pressure area off the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday night. The
post-tropical cyclone should be absorbed by frontal boundary over
the western Atlantic on Friday.

Zeta has turned north-northwestward and has begun to accelerate as
anticipated. A vigorous upper-level low moving into west Texas
will cause Zeta to accelerate north-northeastward today, which will
bring the center of the hurricane over southeastern Louisiana by
late this afternoon. The cyclone is expected to continue to
accelerate ahead of the trough over the southeastern United States
tonight and Thursday. The dynamical model are in very good
agreement and the latest NHC track is a blend of the various global
models. The new track forecast is very close the previous official
forecast.

Given Zeta's acceleration near landfall, strong winds are likely
to spread well inland along the northern Gulf coast this evening
and tonight.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected along portions of the
northern Gulf Coast by late today, with the highest inundation
occurring somewhere between the Mouth of the Pearl River and Dauphin
Island, Alabama. Residents in the Storm Surge Warning area should
follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected this afternoon within portions
of the Hurricane Warning area between Morgan City, Louisiana, and
the Mississippi/Alabama border. Damaging winds, especially in gusts,
will spread well inland across portions of southeast Mississippi and
southern and central Alabama tonight due to Zeta's fast forward
speed.

3. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall is expected from portions of the
central U.S. Gulf Coast into the Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley,
Southern to Central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic States near and
in advance of Zeta. This rainfall will lead to flash, urban, small
stream, and minor river flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 25.1N 91.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 27.9N 91.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 32.8N 87.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 29/1800Z 37.5N 79.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 30/0600Z 40.5N 67.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Ryxn]

Zeta's inevitable landfall will tie 2017, 1933, and 1909 (if you count the Florida Keys Hurricane as a GOM landfall) for second most hurricane landfalls in the Gulf of Mexico with 5. Irma technically made landfall in the extreme southeastern gulf so that year had 5 hurricane landfalls.

The current record holders are 1886 and 2005 with 7 and it is very unlikely that those records will be broken, let alone tied. But it is still impressive and rare nonetheless.

7 storms
2005: Cindy, Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Rita, Stan, Wilma
1886: One, Two, Three, Four, Five, Eight, Ten

5 storms
2020: Hanna, Laura, Sally, Delta, Zeta (when it makes landfall)
2017: Franklin, Harvey, Irma, Katia, Nate
1933: Two, Five, Eight, Thirteen, Fourteen
1909: Two, Four, Six, Nine, Eleven (if you even count it)

It's possibly 2020 could see another possible landfall in November in the area Irma made landfall though it is unlikely.

[NDG]

Pressure continues to drop, 89 knot flight level winds in the NE quadrant.

104300 2532N 09147W 6980 02933 9761 +144 +102 005003 008 019 001 00
104330 2532N 09145W 6962 02956 9757 +147 +092 186010 013 017 001 00
104400 2532N 09143W 6970 02948 9765 +145 +088 194015 016 020 001 00
104430 2532N 09141W 6961 02959 9770 +141 +099 180019 022 016 002 03
104500 2533N 09139W 6976 02946 9776 +141 +084 172024 024 026 001 00
104530 2535N 09138W 6962 02967 9780 +140 +085 167024 025 030 001 00
104600 2536N 09137W 6967 02961 9785 +136 +088 168028 029 032 001 00
104630 2538N 09135W 6966 02966 9786 +138 +087 168029 030 035 001 00
104700 2539N 09134W 6966 02968 9795 +133 +092 165030 031 036 002 00
104730 2540N 09132W 6969 02967 9800 +128 +090 162031 031 037 002 00
104800 2542N 09131W 6967 02970 9808 +122 +093 167033 034 044 003 00
104830 2543N 09129W 6966 02972 9810 +121 +103 169037 041 063 009 00
104900 2545N 09128W 6973 02966 9813 +125 +118 159042 045 066 018 03
104930 2546N 09126W 6978 02968 9850 +123 +123 165057 068 071 022 03
105000 2548N 09125W 6991 02970 9885 +121 +121 153085 089 065 047 03
105030 2549N 09123W 6960 03018 9890 +112 +112 148081 088 /// /// 03
105100 2550N 09122W 6964 03017 9887 +107 +107 146080 082 060 009 00
$$

[bella_may]

I work on the MS coast. It’s lightning now

[Nimbus]

Looks like it has made the turn north a little early but that is just based on a few wobbles without a symmetrical eye.

AF307 Mission #15 into ZETA actually logged a jog NNE.