Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[DESTRUCTION5]

Based on Recon, a closed circulation has been found it appears.

Sure does look like STD10

[Ed Mahmoud]

12z EURO

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html

Kinda cool, NOGAPS develops a new tropical cyclone from the Caribbean and hits Corpus Christi next week.

But SE Louisiana seems to be the NOGAPs solution

[Ed Mahmoud]

Based on Recon, a closed circulation has been found it appears.

Sure does look like STD10

At lower levels, is it warmer near the center? Is it truly sub-tropical, or just a surface low?

Nobody has commented on recon discussion thread in 2 hours, why I ask.

[CrazyC83]

were does it "appear" to be?

Looks to be around 26.8°N 84.1°W, but that is just a guess at this point.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Based on Recon, a closed circulation has been found it appears.

Sure does look like STD10

At lower levels, is it warmer near the center? Is it truly sub-tropical, or just a surface low?

Nobody has commented on recon discussion thread in 2 hours, why I ask.

TS force gales are way NE of the Center..I say STD ATM...

[CrazyC83]

Based on Recon, a closed circulation has been found it appears.

Sure does look like STD10

At lower levels, is it warmer near the center? Is it truly sub-tropical, or just a surface low?

Nobody has commented on recon discussion thread in 2 hours, why I ask.

Temperatures at the core appear to be in the 22-25°C at flight level (~960mb).

[lrak]

were does it "appear" to be?

Looks to be around 26.8°N 84.1°W, but that is just a guess at this point.

thank you very much.

[Air Force Met]

Based on Recon, a closed circulation has been found it appears.

Uhh...not being rude here...but you didn't need recon to tell you there was a closed circulation. The west winds in all the buoys across the eastern Gulf should have been a dead give away.

[djones65]

The aircraft has not found a "well defined" circulation and thus no VDM. However, the broad circulation in my opinion is near 27.0N and 84.6W based on the last pass with extrapolated pressure 1005 mb and maximum SFMR surface winds of 30kt south of the "center." The flight level temps, from approximately 800ft altitude are 24.5 C and there is a 2 degree Celsius temp gradient between the center and the ambient temps. So, the temps in the broad gyre are about 2 degrees or 2 and a half degrees warmer than surrounding environment. Since they cannot find a well defined circulation at the moment I personally would vote NO on upgrading to a Subtropical depression although I personally believe it is inevitable that it will be upgraded with time. Also, strongest winds I've seen from SFMR were 33kt and they are south of the center. Winds north of the Center are only 15 to 20kt.

[miamicanes177]

Uhh...not being rude here...but you didn't need recon to tell you there was a closed circulation. The west winds in all the buoys across the eastern Gulf should have been a dead give away.

So why is this not declared a depression with 35mph winds (confirmed surface winds via SFMR).

[skysummit]

Based on Recon, a closed circulation has been found it appears.

Uhh...not being rude here...but you didn't need recon to tell you there was a closed circulation. The west winds in all the buoys across the eastern Gulf should have been a dead give away.

Wait a second now....another certain pro met was saying it was a waste of time to send recon down there today.....the mission should be cancelled because there is no cyclone down there. Hell, we've been seeing west winds across the buoys for the last many hours. Now all of a sudden it should've been a dead give away?

Well, I'm glad he's not in charge of scheduling recon.

[tolakram]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I HOPE this becomes a sub/tropical storm soon
I want to feel some good Tropical Storm
Force winds when I drive out to Saint Petersburg
Beach and just feel it in my face in my own back yard-
and I also hope it stays close to the west coast to give me
a prolonged rain event- and some good wind- hopefully
though there is not too much storm surge that would
kinda put my yard under water ya know

I LOVE IT WHEN this stuff happens especially
a tropical system forming right near me-
this is so awesome!!! it's not terribly strong so people
don't get hurt so BRING on Jerry BABY!!! I want to see
the winds CRANK up HARD on my west coast!!!!!

This is JUST so FRIGGIN AWESOME!!!!!

[Air Force Met]

The aircraft has not found a "well defined" circulation and thus no VDM. However, the broad circulation in my opinion is near 27.0N and 84.6W based on the last pass with extrapolated pressure 1005 mb and maximum SFMR surface winds of 30kt south of the "center." The flight level temps, from approximately 800ft altitude are 24.5 C and there is a 2 degree Celsius temp gradient between the center and the ambient temps. So, the temps in the broad gyre are about 2 degrees or 2 and a half degrees warmer than surrounding environment. Since they cannot find a well defined circulation at the moment I personally would vote NO on upgrading to a Subtropical depression although I personally believe it is inevitable that it will be upgraded with time. Also, strongest winds I've seen from SFMR were 33kt and they are south of the center. Winds north of the Center are only 15 to 20kt.

You win the prize for most pertinent post....because in all seriousness...looking at the temps is really the ony real reason to fly the system. Other than that...recon is not going to tell us anything we can't deduce from satellite and sfc obs. We know 1) The pressure is 1005-1006; 2) Its location; 3) The winds are sustained near 30 kts and occasionally higher north of the center...with some gusts to TS force and 4) The center is broad and ill defined but that there at west winds...you can see them in teh wind field from the Gulf ships and buoys.

All of that can be duduced without recon. The only thing we are learning is the flight level temps and humidities.

[lrak]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... xirg9n.GIF

newbie weather question, but an article was written on this cold blast hitting the West coast and isn't this the trough thats suppose to pick up the current GOM blob and lift it North?

It looks like it moving South and stalling. Will this give the blob a more West direction?

[bbadon]

Question: What if the ULL gets kicked out to the north and the LLC if there is one is left behind?

[lrak]

http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me ... storylevel

this is the article.

[Air Force Met]

Based on Recon, a closed circulation has been found it appears.

Uhh...not being rude here...but you didn't need recon to tell you there was a closed circulation. The west winds in all the buoys across the eastern Gulf should have been a dead give away.

Wait a second now....another certain pro met was saying it was a waste of time to send recon down there today.....the mission should be cancelled because there is no cyclone down there. Hell, we've been seeing west winds across the buoys for the last many hours. Now all of a sudden it should've been a dead give away?

Well, I'm glad he's not in charge of scheduling recon.

Don't get geeked up over what you're not remembering right

Derek never said there was no cyclone. A cyclone is jsut a low...regardless of whether it is tropical or not and that is not what Derek said. It has been obvious we have a low...all morning is had been obvious...to Derek...to everyone here. All you have to do is look at the obs. Don't misquote.

Derek said...and I agree...that a recon shouldn't be sent because this isn't a tropical cyclone and the low is still a mess (not quoting here). We aren't going to learn much from this sending a plane into it that we can't learn from satellite and sfc obs (save the temp profile that I discussed in a previous post).

He never said it didn't have a closed circulation.

[Steve]

>>Question: What if the ULL gets kicked out to the north and the LLC if there is one is left behind?

Haven't seen an ULL get kicked out to the north during tropical season in a long, long time. I have seen upper cirulcations sheared off of storms and head that way, but...

>>newbie weather question, but an article was written on this cold blast hitting the West coast and isn't this the trough thats suppose to pick up the current GOM blob and lift it North?

Don't bet on it. That trough either sits over the Western US, splits off SW into the pacific with the northern portion lifting out (NE) possibly into Canada or the Great Lakes. All that trough out west is gonna do for those of us in the south is ensure that we continue to have ridging out here for a while (mostly).

Steve

[Wx_Warrior]

I agree this thing will be more south (once, if forms)