Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[Ntxw]

Im not yet for the dead season boat. Shear is not too bad, just waiting to see some good waves in quantity. I do however think the ship for a hyperactive season probably sailed. Those years by now generally have produced significant ACE even if the numbers of storms were lower. I think its possible like the past several seasons, one or two storms will dominate most of the season's units.

[centuryv58]

I think people, world renowned mets on Twitter included, need to keep their proverbial zippers up. This is 2016 which is its own year. There are similarities with other seasons but it's August 13. Usually just a few people push their agendas, but there is no way to know at this point with under 75 years of reliable records. In a western biased season, which at least has panned out so far, you don't look out 2/3 weeks on models because they won't ordinarily show maturing tropical systems since they usually don't see them. Admittedly, now and then many models will key on an area where nothing seems to be headed, and you have a good idea to watch a given area. However this is the exception.

I'm calling the current extreme tropical pattern (just without a named entity) as the Apalachee Bay Low because that's what it was.

Here's a prediction: a bunch of people will be impatient and will continue to hype or bemoan lack of activity. And that's fine except September is 2 1/2 weeks away. Patterns such as they are, have bad implications for North American impacts. Patience = virtue and also gives one the opportunity to look back after it's over and self-critique.

A very thoughtful post. And I agree that Twitter gets ahead of brains way too often.

[Hammy]

Im not yet for the dead season boat. Shear is not too bad, just waiting to see some good waves in quantity. I do however think the ship for a hyperactive season probably sailed. Those years by now generally have produced significant ACE even if the numbers of storms were lower. I think its possible like the past several seasons, one or two storms will dominate most of the season's units.

While I agree that the chances of a hyperactive season are decreasing, I wouldn't discount it entirely unless we end the month with little progress--both 1998 and 1999 for instance had only a single short-lived tropical storm by this point.

That being said it could still also end up like a 2015 repeat, but fulfilling the "what if there was less shear" scenario--the MDR was more active than most had expected it to be once we got into the later third of August.

[Ntxw]

Im not yet for the dead season boat. Shear is not too bad, just waiting to see some good waves in quantity. I do however think the ship for a hyperactive season probably sailed. Those years by now generally have produced significant ACE even if the numbers of storms were lower. I think its possible like the past several seasons, one or two storms will dominate most of the season's units.

While I agree that the chances of a hyperactive season are decreasing, I wouldn't discount it entirely unless we end the month with little progress--both 1998 and 1999 for instance had only a single short-lived tropical storm by this point.

That being said it could still also end up like a 2015 repeat, but fulfilling the "what if there was less shear" scenario--the MDR was more active than most had expected it to be once we got into the later third of August.

Both 1998 and 1999 settled into intense La Nina's. While they started late(season), there was a strong case for them to wake up due to this factor. Same can be said for 2010. This is not likely to be a benefit this year. When you muddle in neutral, it adds more into uncertainty.

[Kazmit]

Im not yet for the dead season boat. Shear is not too bad, just waiting to see some good waves in quantity. I do however think the ship for a hyperactive season probably sailed. Those years by now generally have produced significant ACE even if the numbers of storms were lower. I think its possible like the past several seasons, one or two storms will dominate most of the season's units.

It just doesn't seem likely that the season will be dead. The conditions that are forecasted do not support this... and NOAA certainly thinks so with their mid-season outlook. I'm still predicting a slightly above average season, (12-14 named storms). Just because we could see a relatively quiet August doesn't mean the whole season will not be active, and it likely will ramp up in September. As we've seem in 1998/1999, a slow start does not mean a slow season.

[xcool22]

so guess atl hurricane season is dead for a long time ?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[Yellow Evan]

The ECMWF, EPS, and GEFS are hinting, if not outright showing a storm next week, and you guys are leaning towards a dead season already...

[Kingarabian]

The ECMWF, EPS, and GEFS are hinting, if not outright showing a storm next week, and you guys are leaning towards a dead season already...

Although I don't think this season will be dead on the Atlantic side, The Euro and EPS have been depicting a good amount of systems to form in the EPAC and nothing is close to materializing. So the signal that activity is going to pick up is mixed at best.

[Alyono]

The ECMWF, EPS, and GEFS are hinting, if not outright showing a storm next week, and you guys are leaning towards a dead season already...

Im giving the ec less weight than usual due to its 9km resolution. That is horrible due to it being between the zone for explicit and parameterized convection

[Yellow Evan]

The ECMWF, EPS, and GEFS are hinting, if not outright showing a storm next week, and you guys are leaning towards a dead season already...

Although I don't think this season will be dead on the Atlantic side, The Euro and EPS have been depicting a good amount of systems to form in the EPAC and nothing is close to materializing. So the signal that activity is going to pick up is mixed at best.

Keep in mind there are 51 EPS members. If 10 of them show something, that means 80% of EPS members don't have anything,

[Hurricaneman]

a few pages back someone mentioned Katrina in 2005 as a system that came from a convectionless wave east of the lesser Antilles and another one I forgot was Elena in 1985 which caused serious damage to the MGC, Alabama and Florida Panhandle. I wouldn't be surprised to see systems similar to these

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[NDG]

Im not yet for the dead season boat. Shear is not too bad, just waiting to see some good waves in quantity. I do however think the ship for a hyperactive season probably sailed. Those years by now generally have produced significant ACE even if the numbers of storms were lower. I think its possible like the past several seasons, one or two storms will dominate most of the season's units.

While I agree that the chances of a hyperactive season are decreasing, I wouldn't discount it entirely unless we end the month with little progress--both 1998 and 1999 for instance had only a single short-lived tropical storm by this point.

That being said it could still also end up like a 2015 repeat, but fulfilling the "what if there was less shear" scenario--the MDR was more active than most had expected it to be once we got into the later third of August.

Both 1998 and 1999 settled into intense La Nina's. While they started late(season), there was a strong case for them to wake up due to this factor. Same can be said for 2010. This is not likely to be a benefit this year. When you muddle in neutral, it adds more into uncertainty.

Interesting that CSU's forecast for 1998 was for a near average to below average season, even in its early August forecast update the CSU team was just calling for 10 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes.
I am really surprised they were so conservative even in August when LA Nina was taking place with a +AMO over the Atlantic.

[Ntxw]

the -1.4C week after week in Aug should have been a red flag it wouldn't be hush much longer. The Nina was already on the verge of strong. That was a poor forecast for sure

[hurricanehunter69]

The vigorous wave ( sat link ) emerging off Africa (and others like it ) would normally develop at this time of year. But the NHC has not lemonned the area and the GFS is still struggling to develop this wave, along with all the others throughout the entirety of it's run. While I'm not ready to yet call this season a bust. I'm definitely starting to get into the mode of wanting to know why and how...in the event that it does? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/flash-avn.html

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/765132084172103681

[LarryWx]

Here is a breakdown of the 46 1851-2008 **CV storms that hit the continental U.S. based on dates of initial FORMATION:

Period: # FORMED:
JUNE 0
JULY 1-10: 1
JULY 11-20: 2
JULY 21-31: 1
AUG. 1-10: 5
AUG. 11-20: 10
AUG. 21-31: 9
SEP. 1-10: 12
SEP. 11-20: 3
SEP. 21-30: 3 (latest formed on 9/25, the latest for any that later hit the U.S.)
OCT., NOV. 0

**My def. of CV storm:
tropical storm/hurricane that first became at least a TD E of 50W and S of 20N


Exact dates of FORMATION (TD+) for these 46:

7/5, 7/11, 7/15, 7/31, 8/3, 8/3, 8/5, 8/7, 8/7, 8/15, 8/15, 8/16, 8/16, 8/17, 8/17, 8/18, 8/19, 8/20, 8/20, 8/21, 8/23, 8/25, 8/25, 8/27, 8/28, 8/28, 8/29, 8/29, 9/1, 9/2, 9/3, 9/4, 9/6, 9/6, 9/7, 9/8, 9/10, 9/10, 9/10, 9/10, 9/11, 9/15, 9/16, 9/21, 9/21, 9/25

As one can see, the heart of the CV season is beginning about now and will last about 4 weeks as regards genesis date (hits go longer). So, though 98L is unlikely to hit the US as it appears now, it now being mid August says it and subsequent waves bare watching, especially considering that the genesis period of 8/15-17 (leading to 6 subsequent hits) is the most concentrated 3 day period of the entire season as regards subsequent US hits from CV storms.

The % U.S. hit rate for each month of CV storm formation is as follows: 0% for each of June, Oct., and Nov.; 25% for July, 26% for Aug., and 17% for Sept. So, a C.V. STORM THAT FORMS DURING AUG. HAS A PRETTY SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER CHANCE TO HIT THE U.S. ( ABOUT 1 IN 4) THAN ONE THAT FORMS DURING SEPT. (ONLY ABOUT 1 IN 6). July is also relatively high like Aug. although statistical credibility is lacking due to the much smaller # of storms that formed (only 12).

[Siker]

I think this is the first time the Euro has shown average Atlantic MSLP during hurricane season in a very long time:



For reference, here was the July forecast for the same period, the typical forecast over the past few years:

[xcool22]

I think this is the first time the Euro has shown average Atlantic MSLP during hurricane season in a very long time:



For reference, here was the July forecast for the same period, the typical forecast over the past few years:
.wow what a diff

[Steve]

One thing to come out of the flooding this week from the Apalachee Bay Low is that it showed that it's possible to get moisture all the way into Texas this season. We've already had a system in extreme Southeastern Mexico. The parabola goes all the way to about Dallas and then arches up and over toward Indiana/Ohio/Pennsylvania. This tells me that relative to a given pattern, the entire US Coastline is open. We haven't reached summer high-tide yet, but we know the North Central Gulf is an alleyway for now as is Eastern Texas. The mean trough position will probably slide a little farther west across the plains before we get closer to fall, so potential landfalls will be the result of specific, relative conditions at a given time. But it's an indication that there isn't a limit (for now) as to how far west a system can get in the Gulf. I think Texas generally cuts off around 9/15 (with a few exceptions) and certainly by the end of September. But that's 45 days out. Stay tuned.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/765228503201673216