ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Tireman4]

Ahh ok. Srain mentioned it. He is tracking on the end for KHOU Weatherboard and for his forecast later this morning.

[fwbbreeze]

It was a busy early morning in the Florida Panhandle. These images are from around Fort Walton Beach

[tropicwatch]

Actually it is still ongoing.

[SoupBone]

Just a reminder to keep the discussions civil today. Don't attack anyone for being "wrong" or whatever. If I see any of that I'll force you to endure a REALLY warm winter next December-February. For now, I'll keep my promise of a cold, icy winter for the Deep South.

I called you out a few days ago in this thread for ruining my winter. Don't you dare threaten that again this year!

[Tireman4]

Just a reminder to keep the discussions civil today. Don't attack anyone for being "wrong" or whatever. If I see any of that I'll force you to endure a REALLY warm winter next December-February. For now, I'll keep my promise of a cold, icy winter for the Deep South.

Oh man no. Here we go again. Sheesh. The man gets the almost summer of his dreams (Summer 2011..nearly driving Porta insane), no Winters to speak of at all in Houston the past umpteen years and now..more threats. What did ever do to you? LOL....sheesh.....back on topic...umm Wxman 57..did you see the latest recon on winds south of Galveston?

[Nederlander]

As for the shear relaxing: it could be slightly, but just looking at visible you can see the new convection on the NW side being sheared.

[weatherguy425]

For what it is worth, shear has definitely relaxed...


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... d=shr&zoom

[Aric Dunn]

the gulf is of course not all that deep and upwhelling will become an issue pretty quick. At least in terms of any better organization due to the lower shear ..

[weatherguy425]

the gulf is of course not all that deep and upwhelling will become an issue pretty quick. At least in terms of any better organization due to the lower shear ..

Is the water warm enough to really make a difference? Probably not, but, certainly warmer across the western third or so of the GOM.

[TheStormExpert]

Shear might have relaxed but dry air remains a HUGE issue. This explains why Cindy has taken on a Subtropical look.

[OntarioEggplant]

The model inconsistency on Texas impacts is frustrating my forecasting that I have to do for the state. The GFS backed way off of rain totals, but the Euro keeps hanging on to heavier totals as it shows Cindy getting better organized before landfall. I'm leaning towards the Euro with the blowup of storms on the NW side... Could see isolated amounts up to 7 inches for parts of Houston if the Euro ends up being correct. Thinking though maybe 2-5 in general for Houston and slightly less for Beaumont/PA

[Kennethb]

Disorganized TS here with appears to be multiple vortices swirling around. Never the less, a classic June system impacting the North Gulf Coast and especially the coast of Louisiana.

[sphelps8681]

Latest from NHC

Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Cindy has the overall appearance of a subtropical cyclone this
morning with a convective cluster just northwest of the center and
additional convection in a ragged band well removed from the center
in the eastern semicircle. However, there is more convection near
the center than earlier, so the system remains a tropical cyclone on
this advisory. Regular water vapor imagery and experimental
low-level water vapor imagery from GOES-16 show that a significant
amount of dry air is present just east of the center, and this is
likely disrupting the convective organization. Surface observations
and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show
that the maximum winds have decreased a little and are now near 45
kt. The data also show that the 34-kt wind radii have decreased
over the northeastern quadrant.

The initial motion is now 310/9. There is little change in either
the track forecast philosophy or the track forecast from the
previous advisory. Cindy is expected to turn northward and move
through a break in the mid-level subtropical ridge along the
northwest Gulf of Mexico coast. Later in the forecast period Cindy,
or its remnants, should accelerate northeastward in the westerlies
over the eastern United States.

Given the presence of the dry air near the center and its affects
on the convection, little change in strength is expected before
landfall. Cindy should weaken after landfall and eventually become
absorbed in a frontal system over the eastern United States just
after 72 h.

While the aforementioned dry air is sufficient to keep Cindy from
intensifying, it will do little to reduce the overall rainfall
threat. Heavy rainfall is expected to continue over portions of the
central and eastern Gulf Coast, which could cause life-threatening
flash flooding in some locations. For more information on the
flooding hazard, see products from your local National Weather
Service office and the Weather Prediction Center.

[PTrackerLA]

We're in a major dry slot here in Lafayette and I see no signs of that changing for several hours. The sun keeps breaking out with breezy conditions. Looks like the heaviest rains could fall from Beaumont - Lake Charles with the heavy feeder bands east of New Orleans. We might end up getting very little.

[tropicwatch]

I am kind of confused on why they are calling it 310 at 9

Last three vortex messages:
A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 11:09:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°22'N 92°13'W (27.3667N 92.2167W)

A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 12:01:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°17'N 92°24'W (27.2833N 92.4W)

A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 13:51:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°14'N 92°26'W (27.2333N 92.4333W)

[cajungal]

We're in a major dry slot here in Lafayette and I see no signs of that changing for several hours. The sun keeps breaking out with breezy conditions. Looks like the heaviest rains could fall from Beaumont - Lake Charles with the heavy feeder bands east of New Orleans. We might end up getting very little.

Same here in Thibodaux. We basically have had nothing since about midnight. Sun is peeking through and dead calm here. Wonder if we are going to get anything else

[psyclone]

they're probably fixing different spots within a very large, diffuse center. smooth out the bumps and you get the northwest motion over time

[Hurricane_Apu]

We're in a major dry slot here in Lafayette and I see no signs of that changing for several hours. The sun keeps breaking out with breezy conditions. Looks like the heaviest rains could fall from Beaumont - Lake Charles with the heavy feeder bands east of New Orleans. We might end up getting very little.

The center would have to make it all the way to San Antonio to bring the real precip here. It looks like our show is over...

[Stormcenter]

Looks like moisture increasing again somewhat on the eastern side of Cindy

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-02-24-1

[AJC3]

I am kind of confused on why they are calling it 310 at 9

Last three vortex messages:
A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 11:09:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°22'N 92°13'W (27.3667N 92.2167W)

A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 12:01:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°17'N 92°24'W (27.2833N 92.4W)

A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 13:51:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°14'N 92°26'W (27.2333N 92.4333W)

They're using a longer term motion for the larger center of the gyre. The shorter term recon fixes, especially with all those multiple low level swirls, can get pretty "jumpy" for lack of a better word.

Edit: I just ball parked a 12 hour motion based on my own analysis, fixing positions at 0315 and 1515 UTC. I came up with 300/7 (27.1N 91.5W T0 27.6N 92.5W). So I would have indicated a more WNW motion since late last night, since 300 is closer to true WNW (292.5) than to true NW (315).