ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Looks like it has made the turn north a little early but that is just based on a few wobbles without a symmetrical eye.

AF307 Mission #15 into ZETA actually logged a jog NNE.

Still heading due north per the latest fix. Pressure down to 979mb, that's 4 mb drop in approximately 2 hours.

[Nimbus]

06Z GFS a little too far left then with track over Lake Pontchartrain official forecast still spot on.

[GCANE]

Recon reports eye now circular and closed.
16nm wide.
78% RH.

[jconsor]

Zeta has grown significantly in size, which is common after land interaction.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1321411393678200835

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1321406258625335296

[Shell Mound]

The interesting part is the the Euro showing pressures still falling after making landfall.

A fast moving system in front of a sweeping trough providing strong upper level divergence is the ideal recipe for intensification upon landfall.

I was thinking there could be some baroclinic enhancement

In fact, Eloise ‘75 was just such an instance, and its satellite presentation was similar to Zeta’s current appearance. So there is precedent.

From yesterday:
 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1321208030944440324

[edu2703]

7:00 AM CDT Wed Oct 28
Location: 26.0°N 91.7°W
Moving: N at 17 mph
Min pressure: 978 mb
Max sustained: 90 mph

[aspen]

This looks well on its way to becoming a Category 2 before landfall. Lots of big overshooting cloud tops occasionally obscuring the eye.

[kevin]

What is the expected time until landfall?

[MGC]

Zeta will likely top out near 100mph, so a solid cat 2 at landfall. Will carry those winds inland a good ways due to Zeta's fast forward speed. Noticed the surge has been upped for the MS coast now expecting up to 9 feet. SE La and MGC going to get spanked. Time to make a pot of coffee.....MGC

[Stormgodess]

This looks well on its way to becoming a Category 2 before landfall. Lots of big overshooting cloud tops occasionally obscuring the eye.

Saw a local forecast a few minutes ago that had it as a Cat 2 before landfall, a Cat2 AT landfall, and still a Cat 2 when it was reaching the Slidell area on the North shore

[tolakram]

Saved sat loop

[Stormgodess]

What is the expected time until landfall?

Im seeing later afternoon around 3:00pm - 4:00pm ?? But dont quote me on that, some Met. are still saying this evening.... So I guess it depends on your definition of Afternoon and Evening

[tolakram]

[Iceresistance]

NOAA2 is having signal problems, it's behind 10-20 minutes.
AF306 is on time with the 10 minute updates.

[LowerAlabamaTider]

Morning All! Saying here in Mobile we can, for now, expect 50-60 mph winds with higher gusts, but what concerns me is any slight and or earlier turn towards the NNE to NE, and I mean slight can make a huge difference in what we see here. Lots of weakened & broken trees. I just don't think many here are taking Zeta seriously.

[Steve]

Zeta will likely top out near 100mph, so a solid cat 2 at landfall. Will carry those winds inland a good ways due to Zeta's fast forward speed. Noticed the surge has been upped for the MS coast now expecting up to 9 feet. SE La and MGC going to get spanked. Time to make a pot of coffee.....MGC

Stay safe MGC. Looks like the coast will get blasted this afternoon and evening.

[Do_For_Love]

Zeta looking pretty tough this morning...be safe everyone.

Just to follow up on the climo discussion from earlier this week - would Zeta be the first hurricane to make landfall in the northern gulf this late in the year?

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like it has turned toward the NNE. Could be a wobble, but some Ensemble members with the lower pressures did have Zeta stepping more into the ridge than the weaker solutions. Something to keep an eye on.

[Steve]

Zeta looking pretty tough this morning...be safe everyone.

Just to follow up on the climo discussion from earlier this week - would Zeta be the first hurricane to make landfall in the northern gulf this late in the year?

Only one I remember is Juan which made landfall on 10/29/85.