Texas Winter 2021-2022

[HockeyTx82]

The MJO has failed to retrograde to Phase 6 despite numerous attempts from the Euro to say it would for weeks now, thus casting doubt in the model’s ability to accurately forecast the MJO compared to other models.

I haven't seen such a forecast from the ECMWF. It's not currently forecasting that.

Forecasts can change by the hour, maybe instead of acting like a hall monitor, you can actually post what it’s currently forecasting?

If we keep feeding the Troll they come back. Ignore and they go away.

[wxman57]

Just worried about my tomato plants and fruit trees here in far southwest Houston. Is there any hope they will survive? My garden has been in it’s full glory! Makes me sick to lose it over a few hours of freezing weather.

You're not far from me. Best thing to do is to water them thoroughly on Saturday and again on Sunday. Wet soil & leaves full of moisture will mitigate any possible freeze damage. I think you'll maybe see just a brief 32 deg on Monday morning. The garden may be OK.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I would issue a Winter Storm Watch soon for Southern & Eastern Kansas if I were you.

Gotta collaborate that, but I'm sure it will get brought up tonight. The ice showing up more makes it easier to do that though. I do want to see more consistency. If the Euro caves to the GFS and CMC I'm sure I'll get a call from WPC.

My dad in McPherson will get to use his snowblower maybe.

Jealous.

Not every day you see McPherson mentioned. Our best friends grew up there before they moved to Longview then Kingsport, TN.

[rwfromkansas]

Gotta collaborate that, but I'm sure it will get brought up tonight. The ice showing up more makes it easier to do that though. I do want to see more consistency. If the Euro caves to the GFS and CMC I'm sure I'll get a call from WPC.

My dad in McPherson will get to use his snowblower maybe.

Jealous.

Not every day you see McPherson mentioned. Our best friends grew up there before they moved to Longview then Kingsport, TN.

Small world. Most folks have never heard of it.

[Cpv17]

The NAM is definitely looking colder than the operationals. Cold air advection definitely has to be accounted for in southeast Texas on Sunday.

[wxman57]

The NAM is definitely looking colder than the operationals. Cold air advection definitely has to be accounted for in southeast Texas on Sunday.

Yes, it will be cold Sunday. Strong cold air advection will make it hard for locations in SE TX to reach 50 degrees Sunday. I hope everyone survives this extreme cold. I won't be going outside Sunday.

If anything, the west to east flow pattern is getting stronger. Another moderate cold front the 6th/7th and then on the 10th. Systems moving through too fast for much precip.

[Cerlin]

I know it’s a little late but the 6z NAM made me laugh. How many times have there been a split around DFW?

[ThunderSleetDreams]

The NAM is definitely looking colder than the operationals. Cold air advection definitely has to be accounted for in southeast Texas on Sunday.

Yes, it will be cold Sunday. Strong cold air advection will make it hard for locations in SE TX to reach 50 degrees Sunday. I hope everyone survives this extreme cold. I won't be going outside Sunday.

If anything, the west to east flow pattern is getting stronger. Another moderate cold front the 6th/7th and then on the 10th. Systems moving through too fast for much precip.

Running weather. I’ve gone back to the gym to run the past couple of weeks because it’s nasty outside.

I only run outside when it’s less than 70 degrees. Ran 10 miles in 14 degree weather last February and it was glorious.

[wxman57]

Running weather. I’ve gone back to the gym to run the past couple of weeks because it’s nasty outside.
I only run outside when it’s less than 70 degrees. Ran 10 miles in 14 degree weather last February and it was glorious.

The only way I'd run 10 miles in 14 deg weather is if the nearest warm shelter was 10 miles away and I had no other way to get there - and a pack of wolves and a grizzly were chasing me. Needs to be over 80F for me to run anywhere. A July afternoon, now that's running weather. That's when I used to train when I did biathlons back in 1989.

Looking at the air behind the front in Montana, it doesn't look particularly cold, just teens and a couple locations with -5F in NE parts of the state. Heck, maybe the cold won't even reach Texas.

[Iceresistance]

MJO is at the border of Phases 7 & 8

[tolakram]

Sorry to interrupt but since it's been discussed ...

There's an awesome trick for handling posts you think violate rules rather than complaining in a thread. REPORT THE POST using the exclamation button on each post. In addition one can edit their profile and add foes to the friends and foes list, meaning any post by a poster you think is trolling will be closed up so you can't read it.

We get accused of both moderating too slow and too fast. For the most part, if nothing overtly offensive has been posted, we try and warn first before kicking a user off the forum. This benefits everyone, sometimes people are having a bad day, sometimes they can and will clean up their act.

Now, for the tough love. Discussion of moderation is NOT allowed in threads. PM the admins / moderators if you have an issue, use the report button, but do NOT discuss moderation in an open thread. This is clearly posted in the S2K rules, it's there for a reason. Thanks!

[Cpv17]

The lack of blocking in the medium to long range up near Greenland is really showing in the models today.

[Brent]

I will say one thing my forecast is a lot closer to normal after this weekend... Even the warmups aren't what they were this month. Progress maybe?

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I will say one thing my forecast is a lot closer to normal after this weekend... Even the warmups aren't what they were this month. Progress maybe?

Yeah a lot more highs in the 40s and 50s and less 70s and no 80s.

I love it.

[Rgv20]

Gotta make wxman57...My PWS recorded 2 consecutive days of 90+ I'm really looking forward to this cold front we might even see lows in the upper 30s Monday morning down here.

Code: Select all

December 27, 2021 - January 2, 2022
            Temperature            Dew Point               Humidity      Speed            Pressure      Precip. Accum.
Date         High      Avg      Low      High      Avg      Low      High   Avg   Low   High      Avg      Low      High      Low      Sum
12/27/2021   86.4 °F   74.4 °F   67.1 °F   70.0 °F   67.3 °F   64.6 °F   92 %   80 %   53 %   19.0 mph   7.5 mph   0.0 mph   29.81 in   29.65 in   0.00 in
12/28/2021   92.5 °F   76.9 °F   70.7 °F   71.3 °F   69.1 °F   65.4 °F   93 %   79 %   44 %   17.0 mph   5.8 mph   0.0 mph   29.64 in   29.52 in   0.00 in
12/29/2021   90.7 °F   75.8 °F   65.5 °F   72.2 °F   68.6 °F   63.1 °F   93 %   80 %   49 %   9.0 mph   2.2 mph   0.0 mph   29.76 in   29.59 in   0.00 in
12/30/2021   86.7 °F   71.6 °F   63.9 °F   71.8 °F   67.8 °F   62.1 °F   98 %   89 %   58 %   7.0 mph   1.4 mph   0.0 mph   29.84 in   29.74 in   0.00 in

[bubba hotep]

Oof

[CaptinCrunch]

Bubba,

Don't get the Heat Miser excited for over fantasy land heat runs.

[Cpv17]

Bubba,

Don't get the Heat Miser excited for over fantasy land heat runs.

Hell, just yesterday I thought things were looking good lol now just one day later and oof. Dang models are like a light switch.

[Iceresistance]

Bubba,

Don't get the Heat Miser excited for over fantasy land heat runs.

H***, just yesterday I thought things were looking good lol now just one day later and oof. Dang models are like a light switch.

Expect the ENS to be another switch again in the next runs . . .

[Ralph's Weather]

I think models are struggling to latch onto the North Pacific pattern change as well as how to handle intermittent North Atlantic blocking. This doesn't look to be a year of sustained cold but I do think January will have a few cold spells. The bigger is, as can be expected in a La Nina, the lack of a southern stream to bring in Pacific moisture.