Texas Spring 2025

[wxman22]

Enhanced Risk issued tomorrow here for wind.

...Northwest TX into OK...
Very strong instability will develop south of the boundary, and east
the dryline over the South Plains. MLCAPE over 4000 J/kg is likely,
complete with steep midlevel lapse rates over 8.5 C/km. Initial
storms development near the southern Panhandle portion of the
boundary is likely to be supercellular producing very large hail.
Activity should quickly grow upscale into an MCS, proceeding to
produce damaging wind over much of northwest TX and southern to
central Oklahoma. Significant severe gusts over 65 kt will be
possible.

[wxman22]

An Enhanced Risk was also issued in OK today.

[wxman22]

CSU shows an Enhanced Risk on Memorial Day now. Wouldnt be surprised to see an upgrade.

[captainbarbossa19]

Enhanced Risk issued tomorrow here for wind.

https://i.ibb.co/33DVVv2/TX-swody2.png

https://i.ibb.co/4n5YKbxk/TX-swody2-WIND.png

https://i.ibb.co/QFMWGkxT/image-2025-05-24-130226986.png

https://i.ibb.co/SD36wFnD/image-2025-05-24-130333275.png

...Northwest TX into OK...
Very strong instability will develop south of the boundary, and east
the dryline over the South Plains. MLCAPE over 4000 J/kg is likely,
complete with steep midlevel lapse rates over 8.5 C/km. Initial
storms development near the southern Panhandle portion of the
boundary is likely to be supercellular producing very large hail.
Activity should quickly grow upscale into an MCS, proceeding to
produce damaging wind over much of northwest TX and southern to
central Oklahoma. Significant severe gusts over 65 kt will be
possible.

The modeled soundings definitely support the potential for large hail with plenty of CAPE and moisture. Freezing level is well below 500mb with the tropopause above 200mb.

[rwfromkansas]

Monday appears to be maybe morning MCS so that could be a problem for later severe. Plus heavy rain.

[HockeyTx82]

Monday appears to be maybe morning MCS so that could be a problem for later severe. Plus heavy rain.

Are you saying reducing our severe threat later on Monday evening here in the north Texas area?

[rwfromkansas]

Monday appears to be maybe morning MCS so that could be a problem for later severe. Plus heavy rain.

Are you saying reducing our severe threat later on Monday evening here in the north Texas area?

Yeah at least what others are showing the morning activity might limit later.

But will see.

[Brent]

Over 5 inches of rain here since yesterday

I think it's gradually gonna shift south more into Texas after this. Maybe

Hasn't been a lot of severe weather mostly flooding so far

[wxman22]

Busy evening expected. SPC mentions the possibility of numerous severe winds also.

...Southern High Plains into the ArkLaTex this Afternoon through
Tonight...
A low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough over northern Mexico this
morning will move northeastward across the southern High Plains by
this afternoon/evening. Ahead of this feature, ample daytime heating
will likely aid in the development of moderate to strong instability
by mid afternoon amid a moist low-level airmass. A surface front
will extend from eastern NM across northwest TX and the TX Panhandle
into parts of western/central OK, with a dryline extending southward
from the front across west TX. Both of these surface boundaries will
likely prove instrumental, in combination with modest large-scale
ascent associated with the shortwave trough, to focus intense
thunderstorm development later today. While mid/upper-level winds
are not expected to be overly strong, veering and gradual
strengthening with height should support around 30-45 kt of
deep-layer shear. Stronger shear is forecast near the front.
Convective temperatures will likely be reached by 20-22Z, and
explosive thunderstorm development is expected in this time frame
across west/northwest TX along the front and dryline.

A mix of supercells and clusters will likely form and spread
east-northeastward across the southern High Plains through the late
afternoon and early evening. Very large hail (2-3 inches in
diameter) will be possible with any initial supercells given
favorably steep mid-level lapse rates and relatively long/straight
hodographs at mid/upper levels. By early evening, consolidation into
a bowing complex appears likely across northwest TX and vicinity. An
increasing threat for scattered to numerous severe winds will exist
with this cluster as it develops generally eastward into western
north TX and southwest OK through the evening. Given steepened
low-level lapse rates and the presence of strong to locally extreme
instability, some wind gusts of 75+ mph appear possible with the
bowing cluster. The potential for supercells to develop separately
farther east along the front in western/central OK remains unclear.
If thunderstorms can form here, they would likely become severe
quickly, and pose a threat for very large hail. Some risk for a few
tornadoes may also exist this evening (either embedded with the bow
or with semi-discrete supercells) as a southerly low-level jet and
related 0-1 km SRH gradually strengthens. A continued threat for
severe/damaging winds may continue into the early overnight hours
across parts of OK and north/central TX. Severe probabilities have
been expanded southward some to account for latest guidance trends
showing the potential for the bow to persist with some intensity
farther south/east in TX.

[snownado]

Monday appears to be maybe morning MCS so that could be a problem for later severe. Plus heavy rain.

Are you saying reducing our severe threat later on Monday evening here in the north Texas area?

Yeah at least what others are showing the morning activity might limit later.

But will see.

Definitely looking like another leapfrog for DFW.

EDIT: Severe weather-wise (obviously, it will rain).

[Cpv17]

Are you saying reducing our severe threat later on Monday evening here in the north Texas area?

Yeah at least what others are showing the morning activity might limit later.

But will see.

Definitely looking like another leapfrog for DFW.

EDIT: Severe weather-wise (obviously, it will rain).

It doesn’t really seem like any severe weather threat to DFW has verified in a long time or maybe that’s just what it seems like to me.

[Ntxw]

Think this will mostly a flooding issue for north Texas and southern Oklahoma. Very heavy rains on tap with NW flow.

[wxman22]

[snownado]

Yeah at least what others are showing the morning activity might limit later.

But will see.

Definitely looking like another leapfrog for DFW.

EDIT: Severe weather-wise (obviously, it will rain).

It doesn’t really seem like any severe weather threat to DFW has verified in a long time or maybe that’s just what it seems like to me.

There was 3/5/25 (a late night QLCS with some embedded quick spin-ups), but since then, not really.

[South Texas Storms]

Latest WRF, HRRR, and RFFS look very reasonable to me. Most of the thunderstorm complexes over the next few days develop across north and central Texas and then track southeastward largely missing the Hill Country and SA. Par for the course.

Good thing is these complexes are hard to predict so hopefully they're wrong and areas that need rain the most can cash in at least one day this week.

[Ntxw]

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
124 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

TXZ091>095-103>107-118>123-133>135-145-146-260230-
/O.NEW.KFWD.FA.A.0006.250526T0300Z-250527T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Denton-Collin-Hunt-Delta-
Hopkins-Tarrant-Dallas-Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Johnson-
Ellis-Henderson-Hill-Navarro-
Including the cities of Denton, Hillsboro, Terrell, Dallas,
Sherman, Van, Plano, Greenville, Bonham, Frisco, Corsicana,
Heath, Waxahachie, Athens, Canton, Rockwall, Paris, Ennis, Bowie,
Grand Saline, Emory, Point, Gainesville, Sulphur Springs,
McKinney, East Tawakoni, Flower Mound, Cleburne, Edgewood, Fort
Worth, Nocona, Kaufman, Carrollton, Commerce, Lewisville,
Denison, Wills Point, Allen, Gun Barrel City, Midlothian,
Burleson, Cooper, Forney, and Arlington
124 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and northeast Texas, including
the following counties, in north central Texas, Collin, Cooke,
Dallas, Denton, Ellis, Fannin, Grayson, Hill, Hunt, Johnson,
Kaufman, Montague, Navarro, Rockwall and Tarrant. In northeast
Texas, Delta, Henderson, Hopkins, Lamar, Rains and Van Zandt.

* WHEN...From 10 PM CDT this evening through Tuesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
Flooding may occur in poor-drainage and urban areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches, with isolated higher
amounts up to 6 inches.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

Darrah

Noted last week this event could be in tandem with a developing EPAC system which usually is a good sign somebody in the state gets ample rainfall. Unfortunate not everyone but someone. Hopefully it can be more widespread over time.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun May 25 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles south of the
coast of southern Mexico remain disorganized. Conditions appear
favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form in a few days while the system moves generally
west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

[wxman22]

[wxman22]

Supercells developing.

[HockeyTx82]

Apparently POW Ponder posted something about a mesoscale complex moving through woth 70 plus mile an hour winds and some graphic. My brother just sent it to me. I think it looks like it came from Facebook, maybe...

Hype Machine

[wxman22]