Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

[Extremeweatherguy]

Extreme let's how good you are. This arctic air is like the buildup to the Super Bowl. I think your predictions for Houston area are on target. Here in S FL the low here in Boca is 35°F Sun nite and 33°F Mon nite. High mid to upper 50's.

yeah you are about to get very cold down there in Boca. Looks like the coldest air in a few years for you guys. Stay warm!

[JonathanBelles]

send that 32 here

[Extremeweatherguy]

Upon latest check I am now down to 30.7F!!! To verify this too, there was a little water outside that is frozen. With this kind of temperature fall I am expecting lower to mid 20s at my house tonight. I think the reason for my low temperatures are completely calm winds at my house.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Latest Airport updates (11pm):

Hooks = 37F (Dewpoint - 18F; winds - CALM)
IAH = 39F (Dewpoint - 19F; winds - 3mph)
Hobby = 43F (Dewpoint - 16F; winds - 10mph)
Conroe = 33F (Dewpoint - 22F; winds - CALM)

**Expect large temp. drops coming up for areas around Hooks and Conroe as winds in those areas have now gone calm. The dewpoints remain low too, and with radiational cooling the temps. try to reach the dewpoints. Lets hope the dewpoints can raise a bit, or else we may all be for a surprise tomorrow morning when lower 20s become a common sight.**

[Burn1]

Actually Extreme we were in the upper 30's once last year....My house
clocked 37 last January here in Pompano Bch between Boca and Fort Lauderdale.....

Cold for here is when we actually get to around 30 on the coast...upper 20's the most extreme(very rare).....

The rest of my Family lives in Minnesota and Canada...This as cold as I want it however down here....

For me mid 70's for a high, mid 50's for lows with low humidity is just awesome!

I remember the snow down here in Jan 77 and a number of those classic Citrus freezes of the 80's......

Went to School at U of F in Gainesville(north FL)....I remember a good freeze in Jan 85 when we clocked 11, yes 11 degrees in G'ville....I think Tallahassee was at like 5 degrees that night.....

I go snow skiing/boarding every year out west so that is my cold and snow.....

[Extremeweatherguy]

Actually Extreme we were in the upper 30's once last year....My house
clocked 37 last January here in Pompano Bch between Boca and Fort Lauderdale.....

Cold for here is when we actually get to around 30 on the coast...upper 20's the most extreme(very rare).....

The rest of my Family lives in Minnesota and Canada...This as cold as I want it however down here....

For me mid 70's for a high, mid 50's for lows with low humidity is just awesome!

I remember the snow down here in Jan 77 and a number of those classic Citrus freezes of the 80's......

Went to School at U of F in Gainesville(north FL)....I remember a good freeze in Jan 85 when we clocked 11, yes 11 degrees in G'ville....I think Tallahassee was at like 5 degrees that night.....

I go snow skiing/boarding every year out west so that is my cold and snow.....

You guys might get a little cooler than the upper 30s (depending on you location). Boca said he was expecting 33, and I would bet that a few readings in the lower to middle 30s will occur. Inland south FL may even get as low as 29-31F. That snow in 1977 is crazy though. I still can not believe it snowed in Miami. I lived in Orlando for many years and I can not really remember ever seeing snow the whole time I lived there..so to think it has happened in southern FL is crazy.

[Extremeweatherguy]

One last temperature update for tonight (12am):

Hooks = 33F (CALM winds - 20F dewpont). <<My latest Prediction = 21-24F
IAH = 38F (3mph winds - 20F dewpoint) <<My latest Prediction = 26-29F
Hobby = 41F (7mph winds - 17F dewpoint) <<My latest Prediction = 28-32F
Conroe = 29F (CALM winds - 24F dewpoint) <<My latest prediction = 20-23F
My House = In the 20s baby!!!

**looks like a hard freeze for most places north of I-10!**

[wxman22]

Im now at 41.4 at my house.

[Burn1]

Actually Extreme we were in the upper 30's once last year....My house
clocked 37 last January here in Pompano Bch between Boca and Fort Lauderdale.....

Cold for here is when we actually get to around 30 on the coast...upper 20's the most extreme(very rare).....

The rest of my Family lives in Minnesota and Canada...This as cold as I want it however down here....

For me mid 70's for a high, mid 50's for lows with low humidity is just awesome!

I remember the snow down here in Jan 77 and a number of those classic Citrus freezes of the 80's......

Went to School at U of F in Gainesville(north FL)....I remember a good freeze in Jan 85 when we clocked 11, yes 11 degrees in G'ville....I think Tallahassee was at like 5 degrees that night.....

I go snow skiing/boarding every year out west so that is my cold and snow.....

You guys might get a little cooler than the upper 30s (depending on you location). Boca said he was expecting 33, and I would bet that a few readings in the lower to middle 30s will occur. Inland south FL may even get as low as 29-31F. That snow in 1977 is crazy though. I still can not believe it snowed in Miami. I lived in Orlando for many years and I can not really remember ever seeing snow the whole time I lived there..so to think it has happened in southern FL is crazy.

I was walking to middle school that morning in Fort Lauderdale 77'.....Just some real light flurries in FTL. However it did stick to windshields, hoods of cars etc...as far south as Palm Beach

[Tyler]

31 here currently. 28 in Porter. Hit freezing around 11pm...

[Tyler]

EWG...how in the heck did you get down to 32?? I'm north of you and sit in one of the colder spots in Southeast, Texas. I'm only at 37 and dropping very slowly.

Hit freezing yet? I hit freezing at 11pm.

[Extremeweatherguy]

IT IS 22.8F IN MY BACKYARD THIS MORNING!!! everything is frozen solid.

[Furious George]

Despite many jabs from a lot of people on this board, the NWS hit this one on the head. Lows at IAH didn't even get below 30 - leaving many forecasts around here completely busted (I somewhat busted to as I thought upper 20's). Even more surprising - most areas of Houston did not see a hard freeze. IAH saw about 3 hours of below freezing conditions which may qualify - but if your typically warmer than IAH, you did escape a hard freeze. Maybe we all have a lot more to learn about arctic fronts.

Say hello to a high near 60 today with a lot less wind. Will feel a lot better than yesterday!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Despite many jabs from a lot of people on this board, the NWS hit this one on the head. Lows at IAH didn't even get below 30 - leaving many forecasts around here completely busted (I somewhat busted to as I thought upper 20's). Even more surprising - most areas of Houston did not see a hard freeze. IAH saw about 3 hours of below freezing conditions which may qualify - but if your typically warmer than IAH, you did escape a hard freeze. Maybe we all have a lot more to learn about arctic fronts.

Say hello to a high near 60 today with a lot less wind. Will feel a lot better than yesterday!

Im sorry...but last night was called pretty good by Tyler and I. And yes, LOTS of the area did see a hard freeze.. Angleton SOUTH of Hobby hit 24F...that is a hard freeze my friend. At my house I hit 23F (with 9+ hrs. below 32F)...another damaging reading for you. Conroe also hit 23F, and Hooks hit 26-27F. We also do not know if IAH hit the 20s, because that period of 6:53-7:53am does not show up on the reports...we will learn if it did later today when they put out their 6-hr. low. Hobby also hit about 30F, when it was only expecting 31-33F. So now lets compare the NWS forecast to my forecast and see how they compare...hmm..looks like I did a better job..

Conroe

NWS Forecast - 25F (last night), 28F (a few days ago)
Actual - 23F
My prediction was - 21F to 24F (I hit this one right on!)

IAH

NWS Forecast - 28F (last night), 31F (a few days ago)
Actual - at least 30F
My prediction was - 25F to 28F (I busted by 2F..the same as the NWS)

Hooks

NWS Forecast - 26F (last night), 30F (a few days ago)
Actual - at least 27F
My prediction was - 23F to 26F (I busted by 1F...the same as the NWS)

Hobby

NWS Forecast - 31F (last night), 33F (a few days ago)
Actual - at least 30F
My prediction was - 29F to 32F (I hit this one right on!)

[Extremeweatherguy]

Also...here are the freeze lengths:

Conroe = 9 hrs.

My House (a cold pocket in NW Houston) = 9 hrs.

Hooks = 8-9 hrs.

IAH = 3-4 hrs.

Hobby = 2-2.5 hrs.

[Furious George]

Despite many jabs from a lot of people on this board, the NWS hit this one on the head. Lows at IAH didn't even get below 30 - leaving many forecasts around here completely busted (I somewhat busted to as I thought upper 20's). Even more surprising - most areas of Houston did not see a hard freeze. IAH saw about 3 hours of below freezing conditions which may qualify - but if your typically warmer than IAH, you did escape a hard freeze. Maybe we all have a lot more to learn about arctic fronts.

Say hello to a high near 60 today with a lot less wind. Will feel a lot better than yesterday!

Im sorry...but last night was called pretty good by Tyler and I. And yes, LOTS of the area did see a hard freeze.. Angleton SOUTH of Hobby hit 24F...that is a hard freeze my friend. At my house I hit 23F (with 9+ hrs. below 32F)...another damaging reading for you. Conroe also hit 23F, and Hooks hit 26-27F. We also do not know if IAH hit the 20s, because that period of 6:53-7:53am does not show up on the reports...we will learn if it did later today when they put out their 6-hr. low. Hobby also hit about 30F, when it was only expecting 31-33F. So now lets compare the NWS forecast to my forecast and see how they compare...hmm..looks like I did a better job..

Conroe

NWS Forecast - 25F (last night), 28F (a few days ago)
Actual - 23F
My prediction was - 21F to 24F (I hit this one right on!)

IAH

NWS Forecast - 28F (last night), 31F (a few days ago)
Actual - at least 30F
My prediction was - 25F to 28F (I busted by 2F..the same as the NWS)

Hooks

NWS Forecast - 26F (last night), 30F (a few days ago)
Actual - at least 27F
My prediction was - 23F to 26F (I busted by 1F...the same as the NWS)

Hobby

NWS Forecast - 31F (last night), 33F (a few days ago)
Actual - at least 30F
My prediction was - 29F to 32F (I hit this one right on!)

My prediction for IAH was 24-33 (does that mean I'm better than the NWS) since I get to have ranges?

In the end, it shouldn't be argued who is 1 degree closer in predictions. I will say though I did think more of Houston would see a hard freeze. Look at the PWS's at Wunderground. If you take downtown as the center (something crazy I decide to do), a majority of areas did not see freezing conditions for a prolonged period of time. We (like many times) had some great variances in not just low temps (but sustained freezing temps).

[Portastorm]

Now that the Big Freeze of 06 is over, I'm going to tip my hat to the NWS forecasters out of Austin/San Antonio.

They nailed yesterday's high in the low 50s and, in fact, were too cold for last night/this morning ... we hit a low of 30 at Camp Mabry (in the middle of the city) and upper 20s in outlying areas. I think the forecasted low was 24 or 25.

Credit should be given when due ... so, good job NWS!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Despite many jabs from a lot of people on this board, the NWS hit this one on the head. Lows at IAH didn't even get below 30 - leaving many forecasts around here completely busted (I somewhat busted to as I thought upper 20's). Even more surprising - most areas of Houston did not see a hard freeze. IAH saw about 3 hours of below freezing conditions which may qualify - but if your typically warmer than IAH, you did escape a hard freeze. Maybe we all have a lot more to learn about arctic fronts.

Say hello to a high near 60 today with a lot less wind. Will feel a lot better than yesterday!

Im sorry...but last night was called pretty good by Tyler and I. And yes, LOTS of the area did see a hard freeze.. Angleton SOUTH of Hobby hit 24F...that is a hard freeze my friend. At my house I hit 23F (with 9+ hrs. below 32F)...another damaging reading for you. Conroe also hit 23F, and Hooks hit 26-27F. We also do not know if IAH hit the 20s, because that period of 6:53-7:53am does not show up on the reports...we will learn if it did later today when they put out their 6-hr. low. Hobby also hit about 30F, when it was only expecting 31-33F. So now lets compare the NWS forecast to my forecast and see how they compare...hmm..looks like I did a better job..

Conroe

NWS Forecast - 25F (last night), 28F (a few days ago)
Actual - 23F
My prediction was - 21F to 24F (I hit this one right on!)

IAH

NWS Forecast - 28F (last night), 31F (a few days ago)
Actual - at least 30F
My prediction was - 25F to 28F (I busted by 2F..the same as the NWS)

Hooks

NWS Forecast - 26F (last night), 30F (a few days ago)
Actual - at least 27F
My prediction was - 23F to 26F (I busted by 1F...the same as the NWS)

Hobby

NWS Forecast - 31F (last night), 33F (a few days ago)
Actual - at least 30F
My prediction was - 29F to 32F (I hit this one right on!)

My prediction for IAH was 24-33 (does that mean I'm better than the NWS) since I get to have ranges?

In the end, it shouldn't be argued who is 1 degree closer in predictions. I will say though I did think more of Houston would see a hard freeze. Look at the PWS's at Wunderground. If you take downtown as the center (something crazy I decide to do), a majority of areas did not see freezing conditions for a prolonged period of time. We (like many times) had some great variances in not just low temps (but sustained freezing temps).

wunderground is also not that great of a source to get your weather information. I mean who knows where these people keep their weather stations. For all we know they could be right next to a heater. For example, I see a temperature report of 50F right now in Cypress...obviously there is a problem with that. That really is not the point though...the point is that IT DID get colder than the NWS had predicted a few days ago (when Tyler and I were saying it would be). The ONLY reason some places stayed warmer than the 23F I had at my house, or the 24F in Angleton was because they had light 3-4mph winds. Now you said "May be we all have a lot to learn about arctic fronts"; well there really is not much to learn. Temperatures DID fall to their coldest readings of the winter (as I predicted), and many places north of Bush DID see a hard freeze (as well as isolated pockets south of Bush). The whole area WOULD have seen those 23-24F readings had it not been for the light winds. Really not much to learn. In the end, we had a very cold night across the area with even Hobby getting down to 30F. Central Texas was also in on the freeze as Victoria hit 25F, and Corpus Christi hit 27F. HECK! even Sarita in Southern Texas hit 28F. This just goes to show that you do not need a brutally cold airmass or lots of snow cover across the plains to get a hard freeze in Houston (the places that did not see a hard freeze WOULD of if it was not for the winds). Now all we have to worry about is next weekend which also has the potential to be very cold and dare I say snowy? I guess I'll just keep wishing for now..

[ROCK]

Now that the Big Freeze of 06 is over, I'm going to tip my hat to the NWS forecasters out of Austin/San Antonio.

They nailed yesterday's high in the low 50s and, in fact, were too cold for last night/this morning ... we hit a low of 30 at Camp Mabry (in the middle of the city) and upper 20s in outlying areas. I think the forecasted low was 24 or 25.

Credit should be given when due ... so, good job NWS!

Agreed....here were my predictions for last night....Taken from the KHOU board yessterday am.

IAH- 30-32 - on the $
Houston- 33-34 on the $
Pearland- 33-34 on the $
Sugarland- 30-32 bust
Conroe- 28-30 bust
Galveston -34-36 on the $
_________________

[ocracoke]

Despite many jabs from a lot of people on this board, the NWS hit this one on the head. Lows at IAH didn't even get below 30 - leaving many forecasts around here completely busted (I somewhat busted to as I thought upper 20's). Even more surprising - most areas of Houston did not see a hard freeze. IAH saw about 3 hours of below freezing conditions which may qualify - but if your typically warmer than IAH, you did escape a hard freeze. Maybe we all have a lot more to learn about arctic fronts.

Say hello to a high near 60 today with a lot less wind. Will feel a lot better than yesterday!

Im sorry...but last night was called pretty good by Tyler and I. And yes, LOTS of the area did see a hard freeze.. Angleton SOUTH of Hobby hit 24F...that is a hard freeze my friend. At my house I hit 23F (with 9+ hrs. below 32F)...another damaging reading for you. Conroe also hit 23F, and Hooks hit 26-27F. We also do not know if IAH hit the 20s, because that period of 6:53-7:53am does not show up on the reports...we will learn if it did later today when they put out their 6-hr. low. Hobby also hit about 30F, when it was only expecting 31-33F. So now lets compare the NWS forecast to my forecast and see how they compare...hmm..looks like I did a better job..

Conroe

NWS Forecast - 25F (last night), 28F (a few days ago)
Actual - 23F
My prediction was - 21F to 24F (I hit this one right on!)

IAH

NWS Forecast - 28F (last night), 31F (a few days ago)
Actual - at least 30F
My prediction was - 25F to 28F (I busted by 2F..the same as the NWS)

Hooks

NWS Forecast - 26F (last night), 30F (a few days ago)
Actual - at least 27F
My prediction was - 23F to 26F (I busted by 1F...the same as the NWS)

Hobby

NWS Forecast - 31F (last night), 33F (a few days ago)
Actual - at least 30F
My prediction was - 29F to 32F (I hit this one right on!)

My prediction for IAH was 24-33 (does that mean I'm better than the NWS) since I get to have ranges?

In the end, it shouldn't be argued who is 1 degree closer in predictions. I will say though I did think more of Houston would see a hard freeze. Look at the PWS's at Wunderground. If you take downtown as the center (something crazy I decide to do), a majority of areas did not see freezing conditions for a prolonged period of time. We (like many times) had some great variances in not just low temps (but sustained freezing temps).

wunderground is also not that great of a source to get your weather information. I mean who knows where these people keep their weather stations. For all we know they could be right next to a heater. For example, I see a temperature report of 50F right now in Cypress...obviously there is a problem with that. That really is not the point though...the point is that IT DID get colder than the NWS had predicted a few days ago (when Tyler and I were saying it would be). The ONLY reason some places stayed warmer than the 23F I had at my house, or the 24F in Angleton was because they had light 3-4mph winds. Now you said "May be we all have a lot to learn about arctic fronts"; well there really is not much to learn. Temperatures DID fall to their coldest readings of the winter (as I predicted), and many places north of Bush DID see a hard freeze (as well as isolated pockets south of Bush). The whole area WOULD have seen those 23-24F readings had it not been for the light winds. Really not much to learn. In the end, we had a very cold night across the area with even Hobby getting down to 30F. Central Texas was also in on the freeze as Victoria hit 25F, and Corpus Christi hit 27F. HECK! even Sarita in Southern Texas hit 28F. This just goes to show that you do not need a brutally cold airmass or lots of snow cover across the plains to get a hard freeze in Houston (the places that did not see a hard freeze WOULD of if it was not for the winds). Now all we have to worry about is next weekend which also has the potential to be very cold and dare I say snowy? I guess I'll just keep wishing for now..

Yeah, I mean, who knows where you keep your weather station. NWS did not bust this weekend. If you call falling a couple of degrees short a bust, then I guess they did. You do realize that on clear, calm nights the temperature range is bound to be large, right? So what if they didn't nail the forecast to a single degree. Geez, there are some conceited people here. Saying you've done a better job than the National Weather Service when there was no clear cut 'winner' is one thing (and how convienent that certain people ended up in the cool spots); saying you have nothing more to learn about the atmospheric sciences is another story. I didn't see a very detailed analysis at all, just 850 mb temps, and how strong the high pressure was. That takes a lot of talent, doesn't it? There are many more factors to consider, which means, even if you had come close, it would have been dumb luck. What some here are doing isn't really bashing of pro mets; it's actually downright cockyness and an I'm better than you attitude. It's really disturbing.