Caribbean - Central America Weather

U.S. & Caribbean Weather Discussions and Severe Weather Events

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#1461 Postby Gustywind » Sat Aug 15, 2009 2:15 pm

:eek: You see our new guest on Africa :eek:
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#1462 Postby Gustywind » Sat Aug 15, 2009 2:16 pm

:uarrow:
Looks like an amazing muscled squall line :eek:
0 likes   

caribsue
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 96
Joined: Mon Jul 14, 2008 3:54 pm
Location: Barbados

Re:

#1463 Postby caribsue » Sat Aug 15, 2009 2:20 pm

Gustywind wrote::eek: You see our new guest on Africa :eek:
Image


Left to right.... baby bear.... mamma bear.... PAPA BEAR

I can see how I will be spending my evenings..... after making preps and doing safety talks at work. I know... I need to get a life...lol
0 likes   

User avatar
expat2carib
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 458
Joined: Tue Jul 22, 2008 1:44 pm
Location: Sint Maarten

Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather

#1464 Postby expat2carib » Sat Aug 15, 2009 2:20 pm

Thanks Gusty. Appreciated.

That third wave doesn't look that innocent either.One of the models predict it to go west "all" the way.
0 likes   

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather

#1465 Postby Gustywind » Sat Aug 15, 2009 2:22 pm

expat2carib wrote:Thanks Gusty. Appreciated.

That third wave doesn't look that innocent either.One of the models predict it to go west "all" the way.

Be welcomed my friend :) You're 100% right, absolutely! Hummmm nervous days for some...
0 likes   

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

Re: Re:

#1466 Postby Gustywind » Sat Aug 15, 2009 2:25 pm

caribsue wrote:
Gustywind wrote::eek: You see our new guest on Africa :eek:
Image


Left to right.... baby bear.... mamma bear.... PAPA BEAR

I can see how I will be spending my evenings..... after making preps and doing safety talks at work. I know... I need to get a life...lol

Yeah yeah...for that it"s another sport, MONITORICANE SPORT" :lol: Windwards be careful too, it's a good thing to prepare you... in case of...
0 likes   

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#1467 Postby Gustywind » Sat Aug 15, 2009 2:51 pm

TD3

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
msbee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3027
Joined: Wed Jun 11, 2003 10:11 am
Location: St. Maarten

Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather

#1468 Postby msbee » Sat Aug 15, 2009 3:02 pm

Derek's analysis of TD 3 or what we shall soon call Bill. he got my attention with that 95KT going right over us

500 UTC 8/15/2009 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3 FORECAST #1

For official information, please refer to the National Hurricane Center or local emergency management officials.

Morning visible imagery shows a very well defined circulation with the low SW of the Cape Verde Islands. It is a depression.

The low has been moving south of due west this morning at 15-20KT. Models, for no reason that I can see, immediately slow this down to about 10-12KT. The only model that has a good handle on the current motion is the LBAR. Track is quick to the west for the first 24-36 hours. Thereafter, guidance is showing a weakness in the ridge to the north, which should allow for more of a WNW turn. Unfortunately, it does not appear as if this turn will come soon enough to spare the Leeward Islands an encounter with this cyclone.

Convection has decreased this morning. WV shows some SAL intrusion from the NE. I suspect this will only last until the next wave comes off of Africa as it will take the brunt of the easterly wind surge. No intensification is indicated today. This is expected to be followed by steady intensification. For now, I will keep the cyclone just below category 3 status. However, 95KT should be sufficient to get the attention of everyone.

Initial: 11.5N 33.3W 30KT
12 Hour: 11.2N 36.8W 30KT
24 Hour: 11.3N 40.5W 35KT
36 Hour: 12.0N 43.8W 45KT
48 Hour: 12.7N 47.0W 55KT
72 Hour: 14.5N 53.0W 70KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 16.5N 59.0W 90KT
120 Hour: 18.5N 64.5W 95KT

Next Forecast: 0300 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145318
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather

#1469 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 15, 2009 3:08 pm

Hurricane Statement from the NWS San Juan

TROPICAL STORM ANA LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
101 PM AST SAT AUG 15 2009

...TROPICAL STORM ANA MAY IMPACT THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY MONDAY
EVENING...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
AT THIS TIME...THERE ARE NO TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS
IN EFFECT FOR OUR AREA. HOWEVER...AS THIS EVENT UNFOLDS...THE
ISSUANCE OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY SOON BECOME NECESSARY.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 AM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.3 WEST...OR ABOUT 920 MILES
EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.. THIS IS ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF
SAN JUAN PR...OR ABOUT 1140 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAINT THOMAS
VI. ANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AROUND 16 MPH AND MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 40 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
AT THE PRESENT MOMENT...TROPICAL STORM ANA IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED
BUT THE FORECAST IS FOR THE STORM TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY DURING THE
NEXT TWO DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. AT THIS TIME...IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE EXACT
WIND...RAINFALL...AND SURGE FORECAST VALUES FOR SPECIFIC
LOCATIONS. A GENERAL CONCERN SHOULD BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING SOMEWHERE WITHIN
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EVEN BEFORE THE ISSUANCE OF WATCHES OR WARNINGS...IT MAY BECOME
NECESSARY FOR LOCAL AUTHORITIES TO CLOSE GOVERNMENT
AGENCIES...FERRY SERVICES...AND SCHOOLS. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE
YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

THIS IS A GOOD TIME FOR RESIDENTS TO GO OVER THEIR HURRICANE
DISASTER PLAN. VISITORS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CHECK WITH HOTEL
MANAGEMENT OR WITH LOCAL OFFICIALS REGARDING ANY ACTIONS THEY
SHOULD TAKE.

DO NOT FOCUS ON THE SKINNY BLACK LINE.

A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS NOT A POINT ON A MAP...THE
DANGEROUS EFFECTS OF A STORM CAN EXTEND SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
AWAY FROM THE CENTER. IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE CONE OF
UNCERTAINTY...YOU COULD STILL EXPERIENCE HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL...SERIOUSLY IMPACTING LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THE FOLLOWING ARE SUGGESTED ACTIONS THAT CAN BE TAKEN AT THIS
TIME...

CHECK BATTERIES FOR RADIOS AND FLASHLIGHTS. STOCK UP ON DRINKING
WATER AND CANNED OR DRIED FOOD. ENSURE YOU HAVE A MANUAL CAN
OPENER.

HAVE ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER FOR AT LEAST THREE TO FIVE DAYS PER
PERSON. GATHER MEDICINES...TOILETRIES...AND FIRST AID SUPPLIES.

HAVE A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF CASH ON HAND SINCE CREDIT CARDS AND
AUTOMATED CASH MACHINES DO NOT WORK WITHOUT POWER.

CHECK FUEL LEVELS ON AUTOMOBILES...GENERATORS...AND CHAIN SAWS.

IF YOU NEED TO MAKE A TRIP TO THE HARDWARE STORE...THE GROCERY
STORE...OR THE GAS STATION...DO SO AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE.

PLEASE VISIT http://WWW.READY.GOV FOR A MORE COMPLETE LIST OF ITEMS TO
INCLUDE IN AN EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS KIT.

DETERMINE WHERE YOU SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IF THE STORM APPROACHES
YOUR AREA. CONSIDER WHETHER YOU LIVE IN A POTENTIAL EVACUATION
ZONE. IF SO...IDENTIFY PRESCRIBED EVACUATION ROUTES WHICH LEAD OUT
OF THE THREATENED AREAS. LEARN THE LOCATIONS OF OFFICIAL SHELTERS.
IN ALL CASES...HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH
ANY ORDERS THAT ARE ISSUED.

MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR UNSAFE
CONDITIONS. CONSIDER EARLY STEPS FOR SECURING YOUR CRAFT. IF SMALL
CRAFT MUST GO OUT AND CURRENT CONDITIONS ALLOW...DO NOT VENTURE
FAR FROM PORT AND DO NOT STAY OUT VERY LONG. RETURN TO PORT
QUICKLY IF A WATCH OR WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&
0 likes   

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#1470 Postby Gustywind » Sat Aug 15, 2009 3:10 pm

James Wilson, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Aug. 15, 2009 2:23 pm ET
ATLANTIC

[size=150]Tropical Depression Three has formed in the east-central Atlantic about 740 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

T.D. 3 is still consolidating and will move westward over the open tropical Atlantic over the next few days, steadily gaining strength.

Tropical Depression Two reformed in the Atlantic last night, and has now strengthened to minimal Tropical Storm Ana. This makes it the first named storm of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Ana is located about 920 miles east of the Leeward Islands. Maximum winds are near 40 mph.

Ana is battling some westerly shear. The thunderstorms are off to the east of the exposed center.

The northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba and south Florida all need to monitor the progress of Ana.[/size]

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurri ... om=hp_news
0 likes   

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#1471 Postby Gustywind » Sat Aug 15, 2009 3:13 pm

0 likes   

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

Re:

#1472 Postby Gustywind » Sat Aug 15, 2009 3:13 pm

Gustywind wrote:Seems that Bill is here :eek: :) http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... &TYPE=ssmi

That's not official please go on NHC weather site to confirm this please :D
0 likes   

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#1473 Postby Gustywind » Sat Aug 15, 2009 3:28 pm

Latest from NRL SITE about TS BILL:
20090815.1945.03LBILL.35kts-1004mb-113N-345W.89pc.jpg
0 likes   

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#1474 Postby Gustywind » Sat Aug 15, 2009 3:37 pm

BILL OFFICIALLY


000
WTNT33 KNHC 152033
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 PM AST SAT AUG 15 2009

...TROPICAL STORM BILL...THE SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON
FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS
STRENGTHENED AND HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM BILL..THE SECOND NAME
CYCLONE OF THE SEASON. AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF
THE TROPICAL STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE
35.2 WEST OR ABOUT 820 MILES...1320 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...11.3N 35.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
0 likes   

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#1475 Postby Gustywind » Sat Aug 15, 2009 3:46 pm

Msbee it's for you, please pay attention :roll: with Anna:
000
WTNT32 KNHC 152033
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
500 PM AST SAT AUG 15 2009

...ANA MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE
DUTCH LEEWARD ISLANDS...

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLAND ANTILLES
HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST.
EUSTATIUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THESE AREAS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.0 WEST OR ABOUT
805 MILES...1300 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF ANA NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.4N 50.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145318
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather

#1476 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 15, 2009 3:46 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#1477 Postby Gustywind » Sat Aug 15, 2009 3:52 pm

000
WTNT43 KNHC 152033
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 PM AST SAT AUG 15 2009


SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION IN THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THE CYCLONE IS
LARGE AND HAS NUMEROUS CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS WITH
THE OUTFLOW PRIMARILY ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS
HAVE INCREASED AND SUPPORT UPGRADING THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL STORM
STATUS WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS. BILL IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT SHEAR THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AND BILL IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A HURRICANE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
UPWARD INTENSITY TREND INDICATED BY THE GUIDANCE.

BILL IS IN THE DEEP TROPICS AND IS WELL-EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST OR 265
DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. IN GENERAL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
STEERING CURRENTS IS ANTICIPATED AND BILL SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN A
LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN A DAY OR SO...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD
SPEED. THERE HAS NOT BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE...AND
THE BULK OF THE MODELS HAS BILL AS A HURRICANE JUST NORTH AND VERY
NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/2100Z 11.3N 35.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 16/0600Z 11.2N 37.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 16/1800Z 11.5N 40.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 17/0600Z 12.0N 43.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 17/1800Z 13.0N 46.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 18/1800Z 14.5N 52.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 19/1800Z 17.0N 58.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 20/1800Z 19.5N 63.5W 90 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
0 likes   

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#1478 Postby Gustywind » Sat Aug 15, 2009 4:13 pm

Looks like on this path more closer to Guadeloupe...
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#1479 Postby Gustywind » Sat Aug 15, 2009 4:20 pm

000
FONT13 KNHC 152033
PWSAT3
TROPICAL STORM BILL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
2100 UTC SAT AUG 15 2009

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
11.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME


I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.


- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

VALID TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 2 1 2 1 2 1 1
TROP DEPRESSION 32 12 11 10 8 3 2
TROPICAL STORM 65 77 68 57 47 28 19
HURRICANE 2 9 20 32 43 68 78
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 8 16 25 29 35 28
HUR CAT 2 X 1 3 5 9 19 20
HUR CAT 3 X 1 1 2 3 12 19
HUR CAT 4 X X X X 1 3 9
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X 1
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35KT 45KT 50KT 55KT 60KT 75KT 90KT


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)

CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)

PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10)
PONCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
PONCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11)
SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
SAN JUAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15)
SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15)
SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8)
SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 15(25)
BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10)
BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)

ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 13(22)
ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9)
ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)

GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 11(20)
GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9)
GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14)
AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17)
DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8)
DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)

MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15)
MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8)
MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12)
SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)

SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9)
SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11)
BARBADOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
BARBADOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)

TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)

PORT OF SPAIN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
0 likes   

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#1480 Postby Gustywind » Sat Aug 15, 2009 4:21 pm

Image
0 likes   


Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: utpmg and 32 guests