Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

119.6mm of rain . Our local met says that's how much rain Kingston got today.

Hi. 92L is SSW of Jamaica and is moving slowly WNW so expect more rain until it moves out of your area. Stay safe and dry.

[Caribwxgirl]

119.6mm of rain . Our local met says that's how much rain Kingston got today.

Hi. 92L is SSW of Jamaica and is moving slowly WNW so expect more rain until it moves out of your area. Stay safe and dry.

Thanks. I'm definitely trying to stay safe and dry.

[Caribwxgirl]

="Gustywind"]

Just a quick update. The rain has been very heavy all day from about 3pm most of the street lights near my office came on it was so dark. It's still pouring now I suspect by morning there may be flooding reports.

Hi. Thanks for that precious report from your beautiful island of Jamaica. Be aware and continue to keep us informed.

I'll definitely do that

Thanks to you ! We appreciate sincerely, us who live in the Windwards/ Leewards islands included PR [/quote]

Thank you too for your interest and concern.

[Gustywind]

No problem, it's the caribbean family . You will always find a member of the family to keep you informed as many like me or Cycloneye..., Abajan, Msbee, and the others. Maybe i forgot the others as they're ... los talentos de la casa

By the way, continue to be very prudent and aware. Looks like, very strong showers and tstorms are abatting in your island. Be on your guard and tuned. We will continue to read you carefully.

[cycloneye]

Caribwxgirl,this is your home so to speak to post Jamaica weather related things so don't hesitate to visit this thread when you can.

[Caribwxgirl]

Thanks guys and I will try and post more. I'm on all the time but mostl just read all the posts and not post anything myself.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
958 PM AST TUE AUG 13 2013

.UPDATE...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED ANCHORED ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE EASTERLY
TRADES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ACCOMPANYING A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE NOW MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A LINGERING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS AND PRODUCE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGIONAL WATERS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST...BASED ON THE PRESENT WEATHER CONDITIONS AND THAT
EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECT AS WELL
AS THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER TROUGH...TO ENHANCE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
ELSEWHERE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

[Gustywind]

Thanks guys and I will try and post more. I'm on all the time but mostl just read all the posts and not post anything myself.

that reminds me the my debuts here, as time goes by you will be the first to post everyday and keep informed the others. You have the most exciting board here . Our thread is very informative but thanks especially to Cycloneye to keep it alive everyday without too much rest. I Wonder where he get all this energy each day... maybe he has the answer, wil he give us the secret ?

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather will prevail until Friday when a Tropical Wave will arrive bringing increasing chances of rain.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
434 AM AST WED AUG 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT AXIS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL BUILD OVR
PR LATER TODAY THEN MOVE WWD INTO HISPANIOLA THU. TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 40W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRI. ANOTHER TUTT WILL
ESTABLISH NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MAINLY QUIET TODAY AND THU UNDER UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE ON WEST SIDE OF TUTT. STILL HOWEVER CAN`T
RULE OUT A TSTM OR TWO ACROSS NORTHWEST PR TODAY AND SOUTHWEST PR
THU AS STEERING WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. MODIS AQUA AOD
PRODUCT FROM YESTERDAY SHOWS SOME SAHARAN DUST HAZE ACROSS THE
CNTRL ATLC ATTM AHEAD OF FRIDAY`S WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 40W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRI. THIS WAVE
IS ACCOMPANIED BY DECENT AMOUNT OF 850 MB VORTICITY AND HIGH PW
AIR AS ANALYZED BY GFS AND AS SEEN BY BLENDED TPW PRODUCT. SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL START REACHING ERN PR AND THE USVI
FRI MORNING AND COULD GENERATE SOME SQUALLY WX AS IT ENTERS SAL
OVER PR. WAVE ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE HEAVY RAINS FRI
ESPECIALLY OVR NORTHEAST PR AND THE USVI.


THINGS QUIET DOWN A BIT SAT-SUN BEHIND TROPICAL WAVE AND UNDER
BUILDING SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE THEN TURNING WETTER LATE MON AND TUE
AS ANOTHER WAVE (INVEST 93L) INTERACTS WITH ANOTHER TUTT. WHILE
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS WAVE BECOMING A TC IN THE NEXT 48 HRS THEY
ALSO SHOW WAVE WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE DUE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
AND STRONG SHEAR AS IT INTERACTS WITH TUTT. ANOTHER WAVE STILL OVR
THE AFRICAN CONTINENT HAS A LOT MORE ENSEMBLE SUPPORT TO BECOME A
STRONGER TC IN THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE
ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING WITH INVEST 93L BUT OVERALL
TREND IS FOR MORE ACTIVE WETTER PATTERN EARLY MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MVFR POSBL WED AFT BTWN 14
/17Z-21Z AT TJMZ/TJBQ IN SHRA/TSRA WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS. EAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE VRB UP TO 6 KT AT TJSJ/TJPS/TJMZ AND TJBQ...THEN
AFT 14/12Z E-ESE WINDS AT AROUND 10 TO 20 KTS BLO 2KFT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS. SQUALLY WX
POSSIBLE FRI WITH ARRIVAL OF TROPICAL WAVE. SCEC`S IN EFFECT FOR
MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 81 83 81 / 20 10 10 70
STT 83 82 82 81 / 10 10 10 70

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 14 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD BE
FORMING BETWEEN THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF HONDURAS AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS WHERE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME CONCENTRATED DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS
IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. INTERESTS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
DISTURBANCE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE
LOW WILL BE MOVING TOWARD A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH
COULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Caribwxgirl]

Conditions in Kingston are much improved this morning. Still slightly overcast but no rain. I'm not sure about elsewhere on the island though.

[Gustywind]

Conditions in Kingston are much improved this morning. Still slightly overcast but no rain. I'm not sure about elsewhere on the island though.

Glad to read you and see your posts . We hope sincerely that things will improve quickly in your area. Continue to keep us informed as possible .

[Gustywind]

Here are the discussions concerning the two suspects areas we're following.
The first one is 93L just South of the CV islands, the second is 92L near Cuba but bringing wet weather conditions in vicinity of Jamaica.

000
AXNT20 KNHC 141147
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE W AFRICA EXTENDS FROM 17N20W THROUGH A
1010 MB LOW NEAR 13N21W TO 9N21W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A BROAD AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC CURVATURE COVERS THE AREA WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 18W-
27W. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME IT WILL BE MOVING TOWARD A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT...WHICH COULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5
DAYS.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM CUBA NEAR 22N83W
THROUGH A WEAK 1010 MB LOW NEAR 16N83W TO 12N84W. WAVE IS MOVING
W NEAR 20 KT BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W-NW NEAR 10-15 KT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF
DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A
BROAD AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE COVERS THE
AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 13N-22N
BETWEEN 76W-88W INCLUDING JAMAICA...CUBA...AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL WINDS COULD BE MORE MARGINAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE SYSTEM IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AT THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 14 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE
DISTURBANCE REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON THURSDAY. AFTER
THAT...THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WHERE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE LESS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO SPREAD OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO...AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

2. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
REMAIN WELL ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER
TODAY OR ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AFTER THAT...THE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
BRING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
LATER TODAY AND THURSDAY AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
INTERESTS IN THESE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

FORECASTER AVILA/BRENNAN

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 141735
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED AUG 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N21W TO 18N20W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH A
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FOCUSED ON A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED
NEAR 13N21W. AN EARLY MORNING ASCAT PASS AROUND 14/1122 UTC
INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND THE WAVE
AXIS WITH 20-30 KT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITHIN 210 NM OF
THE SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-14N BETWEEN 18W-30W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N83W TO 23N83W MOVING W-NW AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE CORRESPONDS WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
17N83W. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND PENINSULA AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 12N-23N BETWEEN 80W-87W.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
301 PM AST WED AUG 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY. AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH
THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. VERY WET WEATHER PATTERN
IN STORE FOR NEXT WEEK. STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE WEST NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY. VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS
OBSERVED THROUGH 230 PM AST. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY...WHEN A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
LATEST COMPUTER GUIDANCE INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
RISE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FRIDAY MORNING TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
IS COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZE
CONVERGING..PROMISE TO BRING ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEXT
WEEK...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS POSSIBLE...AS A VERY ACTIVE
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING WITH IT DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. SJU-GFS PROGNOSIS SOUNDINGS
INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER 2.2
INCHES DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS THIS WAVE MOVES
OVER THE AREA. IN ADDITION...STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN
A FAVORABLE POSITION...ENHANCING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

IN THE LONG TERM...A VERY STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED IN THE
FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE MOVE WEST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAY. THIS SYSTEM HAVE A HIGH CHANCE TO BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AT THIS TIME...IS TOO EARLY TO
KNOW THE FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THOUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 21 KNOTS OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 78 88 / 10 10 70 70
STT 82 82 81 89 / 10 10 70 70

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED AUG 14 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH...AND IS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS
TO GALE FORCE IN SQUALLS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ASSOCIATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE
DISTURBANCE REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON THURSDAY. AFTER
THAT...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...WHERE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE LESS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO SPREAD OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND BELIZE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE NEAR THE CENTER OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT A HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
TONIGHT OR ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. AFTER THAT...
THE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...AND IT HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...THE LOW WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BERG/STEWART

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED AUG 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2322 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM
19N22W TO THE LOW NEAR 13N22W. THE SYSTEM REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR ON THURSDAY.
A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 22W-
25W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 07N-15N
BETWEEN 16W-33W. CURRENTLY...THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TO
THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND THURSDAY AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ASSOCIATED WITH A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE. ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM
22N85W TO THE LOW NEAR 17N84W TO 14N84W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 KT. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE
DISTURBANCE REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 14N-24N BETWEEN
79W-90W WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION BEING E OF THE LOW AND S
OF WESTERN CUBA. AFTER THURSDAY...THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHERE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
BELIZE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

[cycloneye]

TD 5 has formed in Eastern Atlantic.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
1100 PM AST WED AUG 14 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE FAR EAST ATLANTIC...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 23.5W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

[cycloneye]

Here are the GFS ensembles that are on a mainly west track so let's continue to watch what happens with TS Five in the next few days.