ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[gboudx]

I'm waiting for tonight's 0Z model runs. After the gulfstream plane data from the Gulf of Mexico comes in this evening, we will have our first super-reliable model runs with much greater consistency--hopefully, and then I will make plans about what to do.

The Gulfstream data willl be in for the 0z runs? I saw the flight plan had 29/0z, but I assumed that meant the timeframe they would be airborne.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The GFS keeps it weak, which no doubt effects the steering, don't trust the model placement of the storm.


The good news, IIRC, the Gulfstream departs in less than an hour on the upper air data mission, and the 0Z models tonight should benefit from more/better data over the Gulf.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'm waiting for tonight's 0Z model runs. After the gulfstream plane data from the Gulf of Mexico comes in this evening, we will have our first super-reliable model runs with much greater consistency--hopefully, and then I will make plans about what to do.

The Gulfstream data willl be in for the 0z runs? I saw the flight plan had 29/0z, but I assumed that meant the timeframe they would be airborne.

Airborne 1730, IIRC, or less than an hour...

[Brent]

I'm waiting for tonight's 0Z model runs. After the gulfstream plane data from the Gulf of Mexico comes in this evening, we will have our first super-reliable model runs with much greater consistency--hopefully, and then I will make plans about what to do.

The Gulfstream data willl be in for the 0z runs? I saw the flight plan had 29/0z, but I assumed that meant the timeframe they would be airborne.

Airborne 1730, IIRC, or less than an hour...

3. REMARKS: G-IV MISSION SCHEDULED FOR 28/1730Z TAKEOFF
CANCELED BY NHC AT 28/1300Z.

[gboudx]

Thanks Ed. I need a crash course on how to read those cryptic flight plans.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'm waiting for tonight's 0Z model runs. After the gulfstream plane data from the Gulf of Mexico comes in this evening, we will have our first super-reliable model runs with much greater consistency--hopefully, and then I will make plans about what to do.

The Gulfstream data willl be in for the 0z runs? I saw the flight plan had 29/0z, but I assumed that meant the timeframe they would be airborne.

Airborne 1730, IIRC, or less than an hour..

3. REMARKS: G-IV MISSION SCHEDULED FOR 28/1730Z TAKEOFF
CANCELED BY NHC AT 28/1300Z.

Now why did they go do that?

[gboudx]

Yeah, Brent's right. Looks like it's rescheduled.

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES. A
G-IV TAKEOFF FOR 30/1730Z. WP-3 MISSIONS EVERY 12 HRS.

[KWT]

Hmmm surprised they cancelled that given how poor the models have been.

[rockyman]

12z HWRF shows 918mb Gustav nearing central LA coast in about 120 hours, after reaching 898mb in central Gomex

At 126 hours (end of run)--Gustav is moving WNW right off the west central LA coast with pressure of 925

[Weatherfreak000]

Its not too bad...the later we get those model runs the better to help us prepare come Saturday and people need to start Evacuations.

[93superstorm]

hWRF:

[Ed Mahmoud]

New Iberia bound...

Code: Select all

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 28.08.2008



        TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV     ANALYSED POSITION : 18.2N  75.5W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072008



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 12UTC 28.08.2008  18.2N  75.5W   MODERATE

 00UTC 29.08.2008  17.8N  75.8W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 29.08.2008  18.9N  77.9W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 30.08.2008  19.2N  79.6W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 30.08.2008  20.2N  81.3W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 31.08.2008  21.5N  83.4W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 31.08.2008  23.4N  85.2W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 01.09.2008  24.9N  86.4W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 01.09.2008  26.4N  88.0W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 02.09.2008  27.9N  89.3W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 02.09.2008  28.8N  90.8W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 03.09.2008  29.4N  92.0W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 03.09.2008  30.1N  93.0W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE



        TROPICAL STORM HANNA      ANALYSED POSITION : 20.5N  58.3W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082008



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 12UTC 28.08.2008  20.5N  58.3W     WEAK

 00UTC 29.08.2008  22.0N  60.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 29.08.2008  23.4N  63.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 30.08.2008  24.6N  66.2W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 30.08.2008  25.6N  68.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 31.08.2008  27.1N  70.1W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 31.08.2008  27.9N  71.8W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 01.09.2008  28.0N  71.8W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 01.09.2008  28.3N  72.2W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 02.09.2008  27.3N  72.3W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 02.09.2008  26.4N  73.9W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 03.09.2008  24.6N  75.3W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

 12UTC 03.09.2008  23.3N  77.3W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE





[HouTXmetro]

What model shows New Iberia? I have family there.

[Brent]

What model shows New Iberia? I have family there.

Believe that's the HWRF.

Looks like it turns WNW very close to the coast as a very very strong hurricane which would make things even worse.

[Sabanic]

New Iberia bound...

Code: Select all

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 28.08.2008



        TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV     ANALYSED POSITION : 18.2N  75.5W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072008



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 12UTC 28.08.2008  18.2N  75.5W   MODERATE

 00UTC 29.08.2008  17.8N  75.8W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 29.08.2008  18.9N  77.9W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 30.08.2008  19.2N  79.6W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 30.08.2008  20.2N  81.3W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 31.08.2008  21.5N  83.4W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 31.08.2008  23.4N  85.2W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 01.09.2008  24.9N  86.4W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 01.09.2008  26.4N  88.0W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 02.09.2008  27.9N  89.3W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 02.09.2008  28.8N  90.8W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 03.09.2008  29.4N  92.0W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 03.09.2008  30.1N  93.0W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE



        TROPICAL STORM HANNA      ANALYSED POSITION : 20.5N  58.3W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082008



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 12UTC 28.08.2008  20.5N  58.3W     WEAK

 00UTC 29.08.2008  22.0N  60.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 29.08.2008  23.4N  63.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 30.08.2008  24.6N  66.2W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 30.08.2008  25.6N  68.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 31.08.2008  27.1N  70.1W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 31.08.2008  27.9N  71.8W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 01.09.2008  28.0N  71.8W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 01.09.2008  28.3N  72.2W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 02.09.2008  27.3N  72.3W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 02.09.2008  26.4N  73.9W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 03.09.2008  24.6N  75.3W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

 12UTC 03.09.2008  23.3N  77.3W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE





Ed the line "New Iberia Bound" at the beginning of your post might not be too wise to post. Folks new to the board may take it as gospel, when in reality we have no idea at this time. Just my 2 cents worth.

[HouTXmetro]

What model shows New Iberia? I have family there.

Believe that's the HWRF.

Looks like it turns WNW very close to the coast as a very very strong hurricane which would make things even worse.

I can't keep up with models run to run, this is slightly further West from the last run right?

[KWT]

Some models are really starting to toy with the idea that it heads WNW around 120hrs, will need to see what other models do.

We shall have to see, LA seems to be honed in though by the models...

[rockyman]

GFDL shows landfall at Pascagoula, MS in 102 hours

[AL Chili Pepper]

didn't see the GFDL data posted.

WHXX04 KWBC 281734

CHGQLM

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER



NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR



TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV 07L



INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 28



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 17.9 75.8 245./ 2.9

6 17.7 76.3 255./ 5.0

12 18.0 76.9 291./ 5.9

18 18.4 77.6 299./ 8.3

24 18.9 78.8 296./12.0

30 19.4 79.8 293./10.9

36 19.8 80.7 293./ 9.6

42 20.1 81.9 288./11.1

48 20.7 82.7 304./10.2

54 21.6 83.4 326./10.9

60 22.7 84.2 322./13.2

66 23.6 85.1 313./12.2

72 24.6 85.8 328./12.2

78 25.7 86.3 337./11.6

84 26.9 86.8 334./12.9

90 28.0 87.4 334./11.9

96 29.3 87.9 337./13.2

102 30.4 88.5 332./12.2

108 31.4 89.0 334./10.8

114 32.2 89.6 322./ 9.8

120 33.0 90.1 332./ 9.2

126 33.6 90.3 333./ 6.0

[Nimbus]

Hmmm surprised they cancelled that given how poor the models have been.

A mission today would give information that would help predict the position and strength of Gustov on Saturday. We already know he will be near the Yucatan channel then.

What we need to know is what the upper air pattern is doing Saturday so we get a better idea of Where Gustov will be on Tuesday and environmental factors just before landfall.