ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[thetruesms]

I wish I wasn't moving this weekend so I could participate more than just reading through quickly to keep up to date

[deltadog03]

Now, there could** be a new center under the new blow up, but low level CU and good inflow are still getting to that LLC

[shah8]

Nah...models on crack cocaine would be like the CMC last year. Models on crack cocaine would be like HWRF last year.

NAM's just dropped a little Xsty and it will be fine in a moment...

[Aric Dunn]

Now, there could** be a new center under the new blow up, but low level CU and good inflow are still getting to that LLC

yeah that is pretty darn close..

there is something going on that the models are not doing very well with.

1. the ull over DR maybe inducing some effects on danny causing this slow eratic motion and almost westerly motion tonight.
2. the ull over LA is clearly not moving and is holding back the trough that is supposed to pick up danny in 48 hours. That is going to be the big player, if it holds and completely cuts off the forecast will have to change.

[Aric Dunn]

models really still do not have a handle on it ..

[Aric Dunn]

ummm... this buoy makes no sense with a center where they say it is..
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41047

[Sanibel]

[btangy]

8/27/09 00Z GFS: GFS appears to initialize the upper level flow satisfactorily and has good continuity with the 12Z run. By this time tomorrow night, the GFS has the upper level flow over Danny improving markedly provided the center does not reform too far to the NE putting it in a higher shear zone.

Though upper levels never look ideal, it should allow for a more rapid pace of strengthening as convection should be able to consolidate closer to the LLC for a more sustained period of time. By 48 hours, the GFS begins to smear the vorticity of Danny as the upper level low near the GOM ejects NE-ward and increases the shear over Danny yet again. GFS does this much more quickly than the NAM and without looking at the older 12Z guidance, is probably a fast outlier. It does drop the shortwave out of the plains faster as well and deeper than the NAM and 21Z SREF ensemble at the core of the trough which might be the cause of the faster progression. After 48 hours, Danny is clearly becoming extratropical with a frontal like structure in the vorticity fields trailing the storm. Slight E-ward shift in track as the storm is accelerating NE.

[vbhoutex]

ummm... this buoy makes no sense with a center where they say it is..
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41047

Why not? What am I missing? It is N of the center and the wind is out of the East.

[btangy]

00Z CMC: In short, weaker and further W with Danny initially. Still goes bonkers after passing NC's latitude, but not as crazy as 12Z run. Still, quite overdone.

A bit slower with the upper level low near the GOM and quite a bit slower than the 00Z GFS. Upper low a bit more amplified and negatively tilted (perhaps because of the beginnings of baroclinic interaction with a stronger Danny). Handles Midwest trough timing comparably but perhaps not as deep/fast as the GFS.

[Aric Dunn]

ummm... this buoy makes no sense with a center where they say it is..
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41047

Why not? What am I missing? It is N of the center and the wind is out of the East.

the buoy is wsw of the center..

oooppps wrong buoy.. lol

[Aric Dunn]

00Z CMC: In short, weaker and further W with Danny initially. Still goes bonkers after passing NC's latitude, but not as crazy as 12Z run. Still, quite overdone.

A bit slower with the upper level low near the GOM and quite a bit slower than the 00Z GFS. Upper low a bit more amplified and negatively tilted (perhaps because of the beginnings of baroclinic interaction with a stronger Danny). Handles Midwest trough timing comparably but perhaps not as deep/fast as the GFS.

cmc.. clearly taking current synoptics are taking into account a little more in this run since the ull over LA still has no moved or showed even the slightest sign of opening up actually may have become more defined. this is reflected in the more westward motion initially with the cmc.

[tailgater]

In my very amateur opinion I can see 2 things happening,
1 The trough currently diving SSE off the coast of North Carolina could pick up Danny's mild level circ. and shoot it off to the NNE and the LLC drifting westward.
2 Current trough north off Danny completely misses and Danny's Mid and Low level circulations align as he drifts in a general westward motion from a building high over the Carolinas until the trough (hopefully) finally draws him northward
The due NW motion of the latest NHC forecast seems unlikely to me, which is probably why my title reads Very Amatuer

[tailgater]

What
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41047
Se winds, strange system

humm I guess the LLC reformed well to north or it's pretty much a surface trough.

[Derek Ortt]

URNT15 KNHC 270508
AF307 0405A DANNY HDOB 25 20090827
045900 2555N 07222W 8427 01582 0108 +176 +082 166008 009 008 001 03
045930 2556N 07221W 8432 01578 0110 +175 +084 140008 009 004 002 00
050000 2558N 07221W 8429 01579 0111 +175 +085 142008 008 006 001 00
050030 2600N 07221W 8429 01580 0109 +175 +086 152008 008 006 001 00
050100 2602N 07221W 8432 01578 0109 +175 +086 150006 007 004 002 00
050130 2603N 07221W 8429 01582 0108 +176 +085 157006 007 007 000 00
050200 2605N 07221W 8429 01580 0107 +180 +085 150007 008 004 001 00
050230 2607N 07221W 8430 01578 0107 +175 +086 155005 006 002 002 00
050300 2608N 07221W 8429 01578 0105 +180 +087 168005 005 006 001 00
050330 2610N 07221W 8429 01578 0104 +180 +087 173005 006 004 001 00
050400 2612N 07221W 8429 01577 0102 +180 +088 177006 006 010 002 00
050430 2613N 07221W 8429 01575 0101 +183 +088 177008 008 002 004 03
050500 2615N 07220W 8426 01582 0107 +173 +089 168006 007 010 002 03
050530 2616N 07219W 8432 01575 0108 +175 +089 174006 006 017 001 00
050600 2617N 07218W 8429 01579 0106 +177 +089 180006 006 015 002 00
050630 2618N 07216W 8429 01579 0108 +176 +090 159007 007 015 001 00
050700 2620N 07215W 8430 01578 0106 +179 +090 160008 008 015 001 00
050730 2621N 07214W 8430 01578 0105 +177 +090 165009 009 010 002 00
050800 2622N 07212W 8428 01579 0106 +175 +091 161008 009 006 002 00
050830 2623N 07211W 8430 01573 0103 +175 +092 161007 007 006 002 00
$$
;

URNT15 KNHC 270518
AF307 0405A DANNY HDOB 26 20090827
050900 2624N 07210W 8430 01573 0101 +180 +091 170007 008 008 001 00
050930 2626N 07208W 8429 01574 0103 +173 +092 157006 006 015 001 00
051000 2627N 07207W 8426 01576 0101 +175 +092 154006 007 015 001 00
051030 2628N 07206W 8430 01572 0101 +173 +092 147005 005 012 001 00
051100 2629N 07205W 8429 01572 0101 +175 +092 145004 005 017 000 00
051130 2630N 07203W 8430 01571 0100 +175 +092 156004 005 012 001 00
051200 2631N 07202W 8429 01573 0099 +175 +092 168007 008 013 001 00
051230 2633N 07201W 8429 01571 0096 +179 +091 176009 009 006 003 00
051300 2634N 07159W 8432 01568 0097 +177 +091 178010 010 014 000 00
051330 2635N 07158W 8428 01573 0098 +176 +092 175009 010 011 001 03
051400 2636N 07156W 8424 01576 0100 +171 +093 186007 008 006 003 03
051430 2636N 07154W 8432 01568 0100 +173 +094 195007 007 007 002 00
051500 2636N 07152W 8430 01569 0099 +175 +094 204007 007 004 003 00
051530 2636N 07151W 8430 01571 0099 +175 +094 210006 007 008 000 00
051600 2636N 07149W 8430 01569 0097 +176 +095 222007 007 006 001 00
051630 2636N 07147W 8430 01569 0094 +181 +095 217007 007 010 000 00
051700 2636N 07145W 8429 01569 0094 +180 +096 218007 009 005 002 00
051730 2636N 07143W 8429 01571 0094 +180 +097 219010 010 009 000 00
051800 2636N 07141W 8430 01569 0096 +177 +098 229007 009 004 001 00
051830 2636N 07139W 8429 01569 0094 +179 +099 234008 009 002 002 00
$$
;

URNT15 KNHC 270528
AF307 0405A DANNY HDOB 27 20090827
051900 2636N 07137W 8429 01569 0094 +180 +100 229010 010 010 000 00
051930 2636N 07135W 8430 01568 0092 +181 +100 227012 012 008 001 00
052000 2636N 07134W 8430 01568 0092 +182 +100 231011 011 007 002 00
052030 2636N 07132W 8429 01571 0090 +187 +101 230012 012 005 002 00
052100 2636N 07130W 8430 01571 0094 +180 +102 227012 013 008 001 00
052130 2636N 07128W 8431 01569 0095 +180 +103 209013 014 011 000 00
052200 2636N 07126W 8430 01571 0095 +181 +104 204015 017 017 000 00
052230 2636N 07124W 8428 01572 0092 +186 +103 203017 018 008 001 00
052300 2636N 07122W 8429 01572 0089 +189 +103 205017 018 014 000 00
052330 2636N 07120W 8430 01571 0090 +188 +103 201018 019 017 000 00
052400 2636N 07118W 8429 01571 0089 +189 +103 201021 022 017 002 00
052430 2637N 07116W 8430 01569 0090 +190 +103 202023 023 021 001 00
052500 2637N 07114W 8429 01569 0089 +188 +104 205025 025 021 001 00
052530 2637N 07112W 8430 01571 0088 +192 +104 203025 025 022 002 00
052600 2637N 07111W 8430 01571 0088 +192 +104 199026 027 024 000 00
052630 2637N 07109W 8429 01572 0091 +187 +106 200027 028 023 001 00
052700 2637N 07107W 8429 01573 0093 +185 +108 200027 028 025 000 00
052730 2637N 07105W 8433 01568 0093 +185 +109 199027 028 026 000 00
052800 2638N 07103W 8430 01571 0091 +187 +109 197027 028 026 000 00
052830 2638N 07101W 8429 01573 0094 +183 +110 195028 029 023 002 03
$$
;

URNT15 KNHC 270539
AF307 0405A DANNY HDOB 28 20090827
052900 2639N 07059W 8428 01574 0093 +183 +110 191028 028 999 999 03
052930 2640N 07058W 8432 01571 0094 +185 +111 190028 028 027 002 00
053000 2642N 07057W 8429 01572 0091 +186 +111 190028 029 030 000 00
053030 2644N 07056W 8429 01572 0093 +184 +111 190029 029 029 000 03
053100 2646N 07056W 8431 01568 0090 +186 +111 190029 029 029 001 00
053130 2647N 07056W 8429 01568 0085 +189 +111 188029 029 029 001 00
053200 2649N 07055W 8430 01565 0081 +190 +111 189030 030 030 001 00
053230 2651N 07055W 8429 01567 0085 +190 +112 190030 030 029 002 00
053300 2653N 07054W 8429 01569 0087 +188 +112 190031 031 029 002 00
053330 2655N 07054W 8432 01568 0090 +185 +113 189032 032 029 002 00
053400 2657N 07053W 8428 01571 0091 +183 +113 192032 033 030 000 00
053430 2659N 07053W 8430 01569 0095 +178 +114 192032 033 028 001 00
053500 2700N 07052W 8429 01572 0096 +179 +113 188033 033 027 002 00
053530 2702N 07052W 8430 01569 0097 +177 +111 185033 034 026 002 00
053600 2704N 07051W 8432 01570 0096 +179 +110 183033 033 024 002 00
053630 2706N 07051W 8428 01572 0095 +176 +109 181033 033 027 000 00
053700 2708N 07050W 8432 01570 0100 +173 +108 176033 033 023 002 00
053730 2710N 07050W 8429 01573 0106 +163 +108 172032 032 022 001 00
053800 2712N 07049W 8430 01568 0102 +166 +107 172034 035 023 002 00
053830 2713N 07049W 8428 01574 0099 +175 +105 171034 035 027 004 00
$$
;

URNT15 KNHC 270548
AF307 0405A DANNY HDOB 29 20090827
053900 2715N 07048W 8430 01571 0101 +172 +104 168034 034 029 005 00
053930 2717N 07048W 8418 01585 0108 +162 +105 162029 031 030 009 00
054000 2719N 07047W 8422 01583 0120 +145 +105 146038 044 041 019 00
054030 2721N 07047W 8423 01577 0115 +149 +101 147033 036 052 021 03
054100 2723N 07046W 8433 01570 0122 +142 +096 135037 039 051 024 00
054130 2724N 07046W 8425 01578 0123 +143 +091 133043 046 047 018 00
054200 2726N 07046W 8429 01577 0120 +149 +088 138040 045 044 012 03
054230 2728N 07045W 8425 01581 0119 +154 +085 143037 039 035 006 03
054300 2729N 07044W 8437 01570 0114 +163 +083 144039 041 035 004 00
054330 2731N 07043W 8424 01584 0119 +160 +082 142043 044 036 004 00
054400 2732N 07042W 8429 01579 0119 +161 +082 144040 041 036 003 00
054430 2734N 07041W 8427 01584 0119 +161 +083 146039 040 037 002 00
054500 2735N 07040W 8430 01582 0119 +165 +084 141041 041 037 002 00
054530 2736N 07039W 8429 01583 0120 +165 +086 139039 040 037 002 00
054600 2738N 07037W 8430 01583 0120 +165 +088 139040 041 037 002 00
054630 2739N 07036W 8432 01583 0122 +163 +090 138041 042 038 004 00
054700 2741N 07035W 8429 01584 0122 +161 +093 132041 042 039 002 00
054730 2742N 07034W 8429 01585 0125 +160 +095 134042 046 039 002 00
054800 2743N 07033W 8431 01584 0127 +159 +095 136040 042 040 003 00
054830 2745N 07032W 8429 01587 0125 +163 +096 132040 041 038 003 00
$$
;

URNT15 KNHC 270558
AF307 0405A DANNY HDOB 30 20090827
054900 2746N 07031W 8426 01591 0129 +158 +097 131045 047 038 002 00
054930 2747N 07030W 8429 01589 0122 +170 +098 133043 043 040 000 00
055000 2749N 07029W 8429 01590 0123 +172 +098 133045 046 038 002 00
055030 2750N 07028W 8429 01593 0127 +166 +100 136049 051 037 001 00
055100 2752N 07027W 8433 01587 0131 +162 +102 139052 053 040 002 00
055130 2753N 07026W 8428 01595 0133 +160 +103 140053 054 036 004 00
055200 2754N 07025W 8427 01596 0134 +156 +103 140053 055 037 001 00
055230 2756N 07024W 8427 01595 0134 +156 +103 139054 055 035 002 03
055300 2756N 07024W 8427 01595 0133 +156 +103 137054 054 999 999 03
055330 2759N 07025W 8429 01594 0138 +152 +104 133052 053 034 004 03
055400 2759N 07027W 8433 01589 0138 +154 +104 134051 052 038 002 00
055430 2800N 07029W 8429 01594 0135 +156 +104 135047 050 039 002 00
055500 2800N 07031W 8429 01592 0133 +160 +104 131043 043 040 001 00
055530 2800N 07034W 8429 01592 0132 +160 +104 131043 044 039 001 00
055600 2801N 07036W 8432 01589 0124 +169 +104 133041 042 040 002 00
055630 2801N 07038W 8426 01594 0120 +174 +105 132041 041 042 002 00
055700 2801N 07040W 8426 01592 0122 +172 +106 129041 041 042 000 00
055730 2801N 07042W 8421 01604 0132 +163 +108 125042 043 042 002 00
055800 2802N 07045W 8429 01598 0138 +158 +111 123045 046 042 001 00
055830 2802N 07048W 8428 01596 0137 +159 +114 122045 047 041 001 00
$$
;

URNT11 KNHC 270600
97779 05514 50279 70400 15200 14051 16109 /2523
RMK AF307 0405A DANNY OB 08
SWS = 39 KTS
NE endpoint
;

URNT15 KNHC 270609
AF307 0405A DANNY HDOB 31 20090827
055900 2802N 07050W 8429 01599 0134 +165 +116 119043 044 044 001 00
055930 2803N 07053W 8429 01595 0135 +163 +118 115044 045 045 000 00
060000 2803N 07056W 8430 01595 0134 +163 +121 109046 047 044 002 00
060030 2804N 07059W 8430 01594 0131 +165 +122 103044 046 044 000 00
060100 2804N 07101W 8428 01598 0132 +165 +123 103043 044 044 000 00
060130 2804N 07104W 8433 01593 0131 +167 +124 102041 041 042 002 00
060200 2805N 07107W 8428 01598 0129 +169 +125 102040 041 043 002 00
060230 2805N 07110W 8430 01595 0131 +165 +126 102039 039 044 000 00
060300 2805N 07112W 8429 01595 0131 +168 +127 106040 041 042 002 00
060330 2806N 07115W 8428 01599 0132 +167 +128 105041 041 041 000 00
060400 2806N 07118W 8429 01595 0131 +169 +128 107041 041 041 001 00
060430 2806N 07120W 8431 01594 0132 +165 +129 107041 042 040 002 00
060500 2807N 07123W 8429 01599 0134 +164 +129 109042 043 039 001 00
060530 2807N 07126W 8431 01596 0136 +162 +129 104043 044 039 001 00
060600 2807N 07129W 8428 01600 0137 +162 +130 103042 042 040 000 00
060630 2808N 07131W 8428 01603 0140 +158 +130 100041 041 038 001 00
060700 2808N 07134W 8431 01598 0140 +156 +130 098042 042 038 001 00
060730 2809N 07137W 8432 01596 0139 +158 +129 098042 043 036 003 00
060800 2809N 07140W 8431 01598 0141 +158 +129 097041 042 038 001 00
060830 2809N 07142W 8431 01599 0142 +153 +129 095042 044 037 002 00
$$
;

URNT15 KNHC 270618
AF307 0405A DANNY HDOB 32 20090827
060900 2810N 07145W 8430 01600 0139 +158 +128 097042 043 037 005 00
060930 2810N 07148W 8432 01598 0142 +159 +125 093041 042 036 002 00
061000 2810N 07151W 8430 01600 0143 +160 +123 089040 040 035 002 00
061030 2811N 07153W 8429 01601 0143 +156 +124 090039 039 035 000 00
061100 2811N 07156W 8429 01600 0144 +155 +125 090039 040 032 003 00
061130 2811N 07159W 8437 01593 0143 +155 +124 090037 038 031 003 00
061200 2812N 07201W 8425 01604 0143 +155 +124 089038 040 031 003 00
061230 2812N 07204W 8429 01601 0142 +159 +123 094036 037 031 002 00
061300 2812N 07206W 8433 01596 0143 +156 +122 092038 039 034 003 00
061330 2813N 07209W 8430 01600 0144 +156 +121 089039 040 031 004 00
061400 2813N 07211W 8428 01601 0144 +155 +120 092038 039 032 003 00
061430 2813N 07214W 8430 01599 0146 +151 +119 093038 038 032 003 00
061500 2813N 07216W 8429 01600 0146 +150 +119 090039 040 031 003 00
061530 2814N 07219W 8430 01599 0144 +153 +118 086040 041 032 003 00
061600 2814N 07221W 8430 01599 0143 +155 +117 083043 043 032 003 00
061630 2814N 07224W 8429 01600 0143 +154 +116 083043 044 032 003 00
061700 2815N 07226W 8429 01600 0144 +152 +116 085044 045 031 003 00
061730 2815N 07229W 8429 01601 0143 +157 +116 085041 043 032 002 00
061800 2815N 07231W 8429 01601 0145 +154 +116 086040 041 033 000 00
061830 2816N 07234W 8430 01601 0147 +153 +116 087042 043 031 003 00
$$
;

URNT15 KNHC 270628
AF307 0405A DANNY HDOB 33 20090827
061900 2816N 07236W 8430 01603 0149 +152 +116 086041 042 030 003 00
061930 2816N 07239W 8431 01601 0147 +155 +115 086038 038 031 003 00
062000 2817N 07241W 8429 01604 0148 +155 +115 085039 040 032 003 00
062030 2817N 07244W 8430 01605 0150 +155 +116 085037 038 032 003 00
062100 2817N 07246W 8426 01609 0149 +155 +115 085036 038 030 003 00
062130 2817N 07249W 8431 01604 0149 +156 +115 084036 036 032 002 00
062200 2818N 07251W 8432 01604 0151 +155 +115 083036 036 032 001 00
062230 2818N 07254W 8429 01607 0152 +155 +115 085036 036 031 003 00
062300 2818N 07256W 8430 01609 0153 +154 +116 082035 036 033 003 00
062330 2819N 07259W 8428 01610 0153 +153 +116 082034 035 032 003 00
062400 2819N 07301W 8428 01610 0153 +154 +115 081035 036 030 003 00
062430 2819N 07304W 8430 01607 0155 +152 +115 078034 035 028 003 00
062500 2819N 07306W 8429 01609 0152 +156 +115 080031 032 028 003 00
062530 2820N 07309W 8433 01604 0153 +155 +115 078032 032 027 003 00
062600 2820N 07311W 8433 01605 0155 +153 +115 080033 034 028 003 00
062630 2820N 07314W 8432 01606 0153 +155 +115 081034 034 030 001 00
062700 2821N 07316W 8431 01610 0156 +152 +114 083033 033 030 002 00
062730 2821N 07318W 8438 01599 0151 +156 +114 082032 032 029 002 00
062800 2821N 07321W 8428 01610 0151 +152 +113 086032 034 029 002 00
062830 2821N 07323W 8434 01599 0143 +163 +110 084032 032 028 000 00
$$
;

URNT15 KNHC 270638
AF307 0405A DANNY HDOB 34 20090827
062900 2822N 07325W 8432 01601 0144 +159 +109 082030 030 030 000 00
062930 2822N 07327W 8433 01598 0144 +158 +108 082029 031 026 002 00
063000 2822N 07329W 8422 01610 0145 +155 +109 082028 029 026 002 00
063030 2822N 07331W 8424 01611 0150 +155 +109 079028 028 030 000 00
063100 2823N 07333W 8430 01605 0151 +155 +110 078028 028 029 000 00
063130 2823N 07335W 8430 01604 0148 +158 +110 077027 028 026 002 00
063200 2823N 07337W 8429 01605 0149 +155 +109 076028 029 024 001 00
063230 2823N 07339W 8430 01603 0151 +152 +110 077029 030 025 002 03
063300 2822N 07341W 8432 01601 0148 +158 +110 074027 028 999 999 03
063330 2820N 07341W 8430 01603 0146 +160 +108 081027 028 021 003 03
063400 2819N 07340W 8430 01605 0148 +159 +108 085025 026 025 002 00
063430 2818N 07339W 8430 01604 0147 +156 +109 083025 026 026 001 00
063500 2817N 07337W 8430 01606 0148 +158 +109 086024 024 026 000 00
063530 2816N 07336W 8430 01605 0149 +157 +109 086025 025 024 001 00
063600 2815N 07335W 8429 01605 0148 +158 +109 085025 025 024 002 00
063630 2814N 07334W 8430 01604 0146 +160 +109 084024 024 025 001 00
063700 2813N 07333W 8430 01603 0144 +161 +109 081024 024 024 002 00
063730 2812N 07331W 8429 01604 0144 +161 +110 085024 025 025 000 00
063800 2811N 07330W 8430 01603 0144 +159 +110 086025 026 024 000 00
063830 2809N 07329W 8431 01601 0143 +160 +110 086026 027 020 003 00
$$
;

URNT11 KNHC 270640
97779 06354 50283 7360/ 15300 09024 1611/ /2537
RMK AF307 0405A DANNY OB 10
SWS = 23 KTS
NW Entry Pt
;

URNT15 KNHC 270648
AF307 0405A DANNY HDOB 35 20090827
063900 2808N 07328W 8427 01604 0144 +157 +111 085026 027 022 002 00
063930 2807N 07327W 8429 01601 0143 +159 +112 085026 026 022 002 00
064000 2806N 07325W 8431 01600 0142 +161 +111 086026 027 020 003 00
064030 2805N 07324W 8428 01602 0139 +162 +111 082028 031 020 004 00
064100 2804N 07323W 8422 01610 0149 +147 +112 073023 024 029 007 00
064130 2803N 07322W 8432 01596 0141 +157 +112 072022 023 026 004 00
064200 2802N 07320W 8429 01601 0139 +160 +109 072024 025 022 003 00
064230 2801N 07319W 8432 01598 0136 +165 +107 074024 024 023 002 00
064300 2800N 07318W 8428 01600 0133 +168 +108 071024 024 024 003 00
064330 2759N 07317W 8433 01594 0137 +160 +109 073024 025 023 004 00
064400 2758N 07315W 8428 01599 0134 +161 +111 073024 025 025 002 00
064430 2757N 07314W 8429 01594 0132 +163 +112 070024 025 025 003 00
064500 2755N 07313W 8429 01595 0132 +163 +112 069024 025 025 002 00
064530 2754N 07312W 8429 01596 0132 +164 +113 072026 026 024 003 00
064600 2753N 07310W 8431 01593 0133 +161 +114 072024 024 026 002 00
064630 2752N 07309W 8427 01596 0132 +162 +115 069023 023 024 003 00
064700 2751N 07308W 8428 01596 0130 +165 +115 070026 027 024 004 00
064730 2750N 07307W 8430 01593 0128 +169 +115 070026 026 026 002 00
064800 2749N 07306W 8432 01592 0129 +165 +116 071026 027 026 003 00
064830 2748N 07304W 8429 01589 0124 +165 +116 070026 026 025 003 00
$$
;

URNT15 KNHC 270658
AF307 0405A DANNY HDOB 36 20090827
064900 2747N 07303W 8429 01584 0119 +165 +117 068027 028 024 003 00
064930 2746N 07302W 8428 01584 0113 +173 +117 068028 029 026 003 00
065000 2745N 07301W 8429 01582 0112 +173 +118 067028 029 026 001 00
065030 2744N 07259W 8429 01583 0114 +170 +118 065026 028 026 003 00
065100 2742N 07258W 8433 01578 0114 +169 +119 066024 024 025 003 00
065130 2741N 07257W 8429 01583 0113 +169 +119 069023 024 026 002 00
065200 2740N 07255W 8432 01576 0115 +163 +121 069022 023 024 003 00
065230 2739N 07254W 8432 01578 0117 +161 +120 072022 023 026 002 00
065300 2738N 07253W 8429 01581 0117 +160 +120 070023 024 026 002 00
065330 2737N 07252W 8429 01579 0115 +160 +119 066024 025 025 004 00
065400 2736N 07250W 8433 01574 0114 +161 +118 065022 023 024 003 00
065430 2735N 07249W 8429 01579 0113 +160 +117 065025 027 025 002 00
065500 2734N 07248W 8429 01577 0112 +160 +116 069026 027 022 003 00
065530 2733N 07246W 8429 01577 0111 +163 +115 066021 024 025 003 00
065600 2732N 07245W 8433 01573 0109 +166 +114 062021 023 027 002 00
065630 2731N 07244W 8430 01573 0108 +168 +115 059020 021 028 004 00
065700 2730N 07242W 8431 01573 0108 +165 +115 059021 022 026 002 00
065730 2729N 07241W 8427 01578 0108 +165 +116 058022 024 027 003 00
065800 2728N 07240W 8429 01574 0105 +167 +116 055023 024 023 004 00
065830 2726N 07239W 8432 01572 0106 +167 +117 055024 024 023 002 00
$$
;

URNT15 KNHC 270708
AF307 0405A DANNY HDOB 37 20090827
065900 2725N 07237W 8429 01576 0105 +170 +118 052024 024 024 001 00
065930 2724N 07236W 8429 01574 0101 +171 +119 049023 023 023 002 00
070000 2723N 07235W 8429 01573 0102 +170 +121 049022 022 022 002 00
070030 2722N 07233W 8430 01571 0099 +171 +122 048022 022 022 002 00
070100 2721N 07232W 8429 01571 0099 +172 +123 047020 021 022 001 00
070130 2720N 07231W 8430 01567 0095 +174 +123 045019 020 023 001 00
070200 2719N 07229W 8430 01567 0092 +177 +124 039020 020 024 000 00
070230 2718N 07228W 8429 01567 0091 +176 +125 039019 019 023 002 00
070300 2717N 07226W 8430 01566 0090 +176 +126 036018 018 022 002 00
070330 2715N 07225W 8426 01568 0088 +180 +126 035017 017 022 002 00
070400 2714N 07224W 8430 01563 0087 +181 +127 033016 017 021 001 00
070430 2713N 07222W 8430 01563 0081 +187 +127 030018 019 018 003 00
070500 2712N 07221W 8429 01565 0080 +188 +128 031016 017 015 003 03
070530 2711N 07219W 8430 01561 0074 +195 +129 025017 017 020 002 00
070600 2710N 07218W 8429 01562 0072 +198 +130 025015 016 020 000 00
070630 2710N 07216W 8432 01560 0070 +201 +131 027012 013 019 001 00
070700 2709N 07214W 8430 01561 0072 +196 +134 019011 012 017 003 00
070730 2708N 07213W 8431 01559 0075 +192 +136 017009 009 021 000 00
070800 2707N 07211W 8430 01560 0074 +191 +137 012008 009 016 001 03
070830 2707N 07209W 8429 01561 0074 +191 +138 010005 006 008 002 03
$$
;

URNT15 KNHC 270718
AF307 0405A DANNY HDOB 38 20090827
070900 2706N 07208W 8429 01560 0073 +192 +138 013004 005 002 003 03
070930 2706N 07206W 8429 01560 0070 +197 +138 013004 005 001 003 00
071000 2706N 07204W 8430 01559 0069 +197 +138 301002 003 003 002 00
071030 2706N 07202W 8432 01557 0067 +201 +139 291003 003 004 001 03
071100 2705N 07201W 8422 01565 0069 +197 +139 264004 004 999 999 03
071130 2703N 07200W 8432 01557 0069 +197 +140 243003 004 000 003 03
071200 2702N 07158W 8429 01561 0069 +198 +140 255003 003 001 002 00
071230 2701N 07157W 8429 01559 0071 +191 +140 230006 007 001 002 00
071300 2700N 07156W 8430 01559 0069 +196 +141 218006 007 001 002 00
071330 2658N 07155W 8429 01561 0067 +200 +140 215006 007 001 002 00
071400 2657N 07153W 8430 01559 0069 +200 +140 218011 013 000 004 00
071430 2656N 07152W 8427 01562 0071 +196 +140 222014 015 000 003 00
071500 2655N 07151W 8430 01561 0073 +193 +140 220016 017 000 003 00
071530 2654N 07149W 8429 01561 0072 +194 +139 211018 018 000 002 03
071600 2653N 07148W 8429 01562 0074 +195 +139 216018 019 004 001 00
071630 2651N 07147W 8430 01561 0078 +188 +138 213018 019 003 002 00
071700 2650N 07146W 8432 01561 0080 +185 +138 212018 019 000 002 00
071730 2649N 07144W 8429 01563 0078 +185 +137 214019 019 001 002 00
071800 2648N 07143W 8429 01562 0079 +190 +136 214019 020 001 002 00
071830 2647N 07142W 8432 01561 0080 +189 +135 207019 020 001 002 00
$$
;

URNT15 KNHC 270728
AF307 0405A DANNY HDOB 39 20090827
071900 2646N 07141W 8429 01565 0083 +186 +134 212019 019 001 002 00
071930 2644N 07139W 8429 01565 0086 +179 +135 210018 019 002 002 00
072000 2643N 07138W 8430 01565 0081 +187 +134 212019 020 007 002 00
072030 2642N 07137W 8429 01567 0084 +183 +133 211019 019 014 002 00
072100 2641N 07135W 8429 01566 0085 +181 +133 211019 020 017 001 00
072130 2640N 07134W 8429 01566 0087 +180 +133 207020 020 017 001 00
072200 2639N 07133W 8429 01567 0090 +178 +132 210022 023 020 000 00
072230 2638N 07132W 8429 01568 0091 +177 +131 211023 023 013 002 00
072300 2636N 07130W 8432 01567 0094 +175 +130 213023 024 018 000 00
072330 2635N 07129W 8430 01568 0094 +174 +130 208022 023 020 000 00
072400 2634N 07128W 8430 01569 0095 +175 +129 206022 022 020 001 00
072430 2633N 07127W 8429 01569 0093 +176 +128 213023 024 020 000 00
072500 2632N 07125W 8429 01569 0094 +177 +127 215023 023 020 000 00
072530 2631N 07124W 8428 01573 0094 +175 +126 214023 023 016 002 00
072600 2630N 07123W 8429 01571 0097 +174 +126 210022 022 019 000 00
072630 2629N 07122W 8429 01571 0099 +170 +127 210022 023 021 000 00
072700 2627N 07121W 8431 01568 0096 +172 +126 205023 024 019 000 00
072730 2626N 07119W 8432 01568 0098 +170 +126 203023 024 017 001 00
072800 2625N 07118W 8428 01573 0098 +172 +126 208023 024 018 002 00
072830 2624N 07117W 8430 01569 0097 +171 +125 206024 024 021 001 00
$$
;

URNT15 KNHC 270738
AF307 0405A DANNY HDOB 40 20090827
072900 2623N 07116W 8430 01571 0100 +170 +125 206025 025 024 000 00
072930 2622N 07114W 8431 01569 0100 +170 +125 209024 025 022 001 00
073000 2621N 07113W 8426 01574 0100 +170 +125 210025 025 023 000 00
073030 2619N 07112W 8429 01571 0098 +172 +125 209026 026 022 001 00
073100 2618N 07111W 8432 01568 0098 +175 +125 211026 026 020 002 00
073130 2617N 07110W 8429 01572 0098 +175 +125 211026 027 023 000 00
073200 2616N 07108W 8429 01572 0099 +171 +125 212027 029 024 002 00
073230 2615N 07107W 8429 01573 0099 +172 +126 218027 027 026 001 00
073300 2614N 07106W 8428 01573 0101 +169 +126 213025 026 025 000 00
073330 2613N 07105W 8432 01571 0102 +168 +127 203024 025 021 002 00
073400 2612N 07103W 8429 01574 0103 +170 +126 205024 025 023 001 00
073430 2610N 07102W 8429 01574 0101 +173 +126 205026 027 023 003 00
073500 2609N 07101W 8425 01579 0108 +161 +127 207027 028 029 006 00
073530 2608N 07100W 8429 01574 0105 +166 +126 207028 029 027 003 00
073600 2607N 07058W 8428 01575 0105 +168 +124 205029 030 026 002 00
073630 2606N 07057W 8429 01574 0105 +169 +122 204029 030 029 002 00
073700 2605N 07056W 8429 01575 0106 +168 +122 203029 029 030 001 00
073730 2604N 07055W 8429 01574 0105 +169 +122 204028 029 031 000 00
073800 2603N 07054W 8429 01575 0105 +170 +123 201028 029 029 001 00
073830 2601N 07053W 8430 01573 0104 +170 +123 200028 029 027 002 00
$$
;

URNT15 KNHC 270748
AF307 0405A DANNY HDOB 41 20090827
073900 2600N 07051W 8430 01573 0104 +170 +124 197027 028 027 002 00
073930 2559N 07050W 8428 01577 0104 +170 +124 200028 029 027 003 00
074000 2558N 07049W 8428 01575 0104 +169 +125 202028 029 026 003 00
074030 2557N 07048W 8429 01574 0104 +168 +125 202029 029 027 003 00
074100 2556N 07047W 8429 01574 0104 +170 +125 202028 029 029 003 00
074130 2555N 07045W 8429 01577 0108 +166 +125 203028 030 029 002 00
074200 2554N 07044W 8428 01578 0110 +165 +125 203030 031 026 003 00
074230 2553N 07043W 8432 01573 0107 +169 +125 202031 031 026 003 00
074300 2552N 07042W 8430 01575 0108 +168 +125 197033 034 027 003 00
074330 2550N 07041W 8423 01582 0100 +162 +125 196032 034 027 005 03
074400 2549N 07040W 8034 01961 0090 +133 +124 194030 032 999 999 03
074430 2548N 07038W 7633 02399 0073 +130 +118 205027 028 999 999 03
074500 2547N 07037W 7310 02767 0067 +115 +111 219024 026 999 999 03
074530 2546N 07036W 7023 03100 0064 +102 +102 225020 021 999 999 03
074600 2544N 07036W 6963 03198 0095 +091 +091 226020 021 025 003 00
074630 2542N 07036W 6962 03205 0098 +093 +092 226021 022 025 002 00
074700 2540N 07037W 6970 03195 0101 +092 +089 227021 022 026 002 00
074730 2538N 07037W 6961 03206 0100 +092 +087 223021 022 026 002 00
074800 2535N 07037W 6969 03198 0103 +092 +087 216021 022 024 003 00
074830 2535N 07037W 6969 03198 0102 +093 +085 219019 020 023 004 00
$$
;

URNT12 KNHC 270749
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052009
A. 27/07:10:30Z
B. 27 deg 06 min N
072 deg 02 min W
C. 850 mb 1488 m
D. 29 kt
E. 306 deg 92 nm
F. 081 deg 30 kt
G. 306 deg 93 nm
H. 1007 mb
I. 17 C / 1524 m
J. 20 C / 1523 m
K. 14 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF307 0405A DANNY OB 11
MAX FL WIND 55 KT NE QUAD 05:52:00Z
MAX SFC WIND 45KT NE QUAD 05:59:00Z
;

URNT11 KNHC 270751
97779 07434 50259 70700 15300 20032 17128 /2506
RMK AF307 0405A DANNY OB 13
SWS = 27 KTS
SW endpoint
;

URNT15 KNHC 270758
AF307 0405A DANNY HDOB 42 20090827
074900 2531N 07038W 6966 03201 0101 +094 +084 221019 020 022 003 00
074930 2529N 07038W 6966 03203 0102 +095 +083 223020 020 022 003 00
075000 2527N 07038W 6967 03200 0099 +095 +083 225020 020 025 002 00
075030 2524N 07038W 6968 03200 0099 +095 +083 223020 021 023 003 00
075100 2522N 07039W 6969 03200 0099 +095 +082 227020 020 024 003 00
075130 2520N 07039W 6967 03203 0099 +095 +082 229020 021 023 002 00
075200 2518N 07039W 6969 03200 0100 +095 +081 231021 021 022 003 00
075230 2516N 07039W 6967 03203 0103 +095 +081 227020 021 023 002 00
075300 2513N 07040W 6967 03203 0103 +095 +081 225019 019 023 002 00
075330 2511N 07040W 6963 03204 0094 +096 +081 226019 019 021 003 00
075400 2509N 07040W 6767 03431 0074 +090 +079 235018 019 021 002 00
075430 2507N 07040W 6510 03748 0069 +068 +068 231016 017 021 002 00
075500 2505N 07041W 6235 04098 9990 +045 +999 225016 016 026 000 01
075530 2503N 07041W 5979 04431 9990 +030 +999 225016 017 020 002 01
075600 2501N 07041W 5765 04724 9990 +015 +999 231015 016 019 003 01
075630 2459N 07041W 5526 05061 9990 -006 +999 229015 015 020 002 01
075700 2457N 07041W 5312 05376 0252 -022 +999 238014 014 999 999 05
075730 2455N 07042W 5109 05682 0270 -046 +999 233015 016 999 999 05
075800 2454N 07042W 4912 05993 0289 -069 +999 219015 016 999 999 05
075830 2452N 07042W 4748 06258 0307 -076 +999 220010 013 999 999 05
$$
;

URNT15 KNHC 270808
AF307 0405A DANNY HDOB 43 20090827
075900 2450N 07042W 4622 06471 0322 -087 +999 217009 009 014 003 05
075930 2448N 07042W 4512 06656 0331 -099 +999 225010 011 019 002 01
080000 2446N 07043W 4389 06863 0343 -109 +999 232010 010 018 002 01
080030 2444N 07043W 4293 07041 0360 -123 +999 230009 009 013 003 01
080100 2442N 07043W 4279 07071 0365 -125 +999 228008 008 011 003 01
080130 2440N 07043W 4256 07106 0364 -129 -233 233009 009 011 002 00
080200 2438N 07044W 4156 07287 0373 -143 -380 220007 008 010 003 00
080230 2436N 07044W 4048 07480 0383 -159 -447 194008 010 013 003 00
080300 2434N 07044W 3925 07718 0399 -172 -481 156006 007 009 004 00
080330 2432N 07044W 3853 07857 0408 -178 -499 155007 008 011 003 00
080400 2430N 07045W 3785 07990 0418 -187 -511 153008 009 015 003 00
080430 2427N 07045W 3759 08045 0424 -189 -517 143011 011 011 003 00
080500 2425N 07045W 3760 08045 0426 -194 -478 141008 010 015 003 00
080530 2423N 07045W 3757 08052 0428 -200 -254 147006 006 019 001 01
080600 2420N 07046W 3757 08056 0430 -202 +999 137005 005 020 001 01
080630 2420N 07046W 3757 08056 0431 -204 -218 141004 004 019 002 00
080700 2415N 07046W 3759 08051 0432 -205 -249 168003 003 021 001 00
080730 2412N 07046W 3758 08053 0432 -206 -271 204001 002 018 002 00
080800 2409N 07047W 3760 08049 0431 -208 -241 220001 002 020 002 00
080830 2407N 07047W 3759 08051 0431 -210 -220 262002 003 019 002 00
$$
;

URNT15 KNHC 270818
AF307 0405A DANNY HDOB 44 20090827
080900 2404N 07047W 3759 08051 0430 -209 -253 246003 004 014 002 00
080930 2401N 07047W 3759 08048 0427 -206 -268 226005 006 999 999 03
081000 2359N 07046W 3760 08043 0426 -210 -262 223007 007 009 001 03
081030 2356N 07045W 3759 08047 0427 -206 -265 213007 007 009 002 00
081100 2354N 07043W 3759 08044 0426 -205 -280 228007 008 015 000 00
081130 2352N 07041W 3758 08049 0426 -206 -286 233007 008 008 002 00
081200 2350N 07040W 3761 08044 0426 -206 -285 225007 008 010 001 00
081230 2348N 07038W 3758 08049 0426 -210 -287 217010 010 005 002 00
081300 2346N 07036W 3761 08042 0425 -207 -278 217011 011 002 002 00
081330 2343N 07034W 3758 08048 0425 -207 -276 225012 012 008 001 00
081400 2341N 07032W 3759 08043 0425 -206 -284 230015 015 006 001 00
081430 2339N 07031W 3758 08048 0425 -205 -289 226015 015 000 004 00
081500 2337N 07029W 3758 08044 0424 -205 -293 230016 018 007 000 00
081530 2335N 07027W 3761 08042 0425 -205 -296 229018 019 005 001 00
081600 2333N 07025W 3758 08047 0426 -205 -298 218020 021 000 002 00
081630 2331N 07024W 3758 08047 0426 -205 -305 215020 020 000 002 00
081700 2329N 07022W 3758 08047 0426 -205 -305 217020 020 000 002 00
081730 2326N 07020W 3759 08047 0426 -204 -301 218021 021 000 002 03
081800 2324N 07018W 3759 08045 0426 -200 -305 217022 023 999 999 03
081830 2322N 07017W 3760 08045 0426 -198 -318 222023 023 999 999 03
$$
;

URNT11 KNHC 270818
97779 08064 50243 7080/ 76200 99005 7173/ /5759
RMK AF307 0405A DANNY OB 14
;

URNT15 KNHC 270828
AF307 0405A DANNY HDOB 45 20090827
081900 2320N 07015W 3760 08045 0425 -202 -326 232022 023 999 999 03
081930 2318N 07014W 3758 08045 0424 -197 -316 237023 025 999 999 03
082000 2315N 07012W 3758 08050 0427 -188 -290 226021 022 999 999 03
082030 2313N 07011W 3758 08051 0427 -191 -270 225026 029 999 999 03
082100 2310N 07010W 3759 08048 0427 -197 -276 223029 030 999 999 03
082130 2308N 07009W 3758 08049 0427 -197 -290 216026 026 999 999 03
082200 2306N 07007W 3759 08048 0428 -200 -288 205026 027 999 999 03
082230 2304N 07005W 3757 08053 0430 -199 -265 207027 028 999 999 03
082300 2303N 07003W 3759 08050 0431 -199 -252 210029 030 999 999 03
082330 2301N 07001W 3758 08054 0432 -202 -256 217025 026 999 999 03
082400 2259N 06959W 3757 08059 0432 -198 -251 211027 028 999 999 03
082430 2257N 06957W 3761 08049 0431 -199 -252 207026 027 999 999 03
082500 2255N 06955W 3758 08052 0431 -199 -275 211026 027 999 999 03
082530 2253N 06953W 3758 08055 0432 -197 -293 207026 028 999 999 03
082600 2251N 06951W 3758 08055 0432 -192 -304 200029 030 999 999 03
082630 2249N 06949W 3758 08051 0431 -190 -319 201029 030 999 999 03
082700 2247N 06948W 3760 08050 0432 -189 -333 207027 028 999 999 03
082730 2245N 06946W 3761 08050 0432 -193 -343 196026 026 999 999 03
082800 2243N 06944W 3757 08058 0434 -193 -346 195026 027 999 999 03
082830 2241N 06943W 3758 08055 0433 -190 -338 199026 026 999 999 03
$$

[Thunder44]

What
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41047
Se winds, strange system

humm I guess the LLC reformed well to north or it's pretty much a surface trough.

LLC reformed further north. The plane fixed a center at 27.1N 72W

[Thunder44]

BT has this storm 50kts, at 0z and 6z:


AL, 05, 2009082700, , BEST, 0, 260N, 709W, 50, 1006, TS,
AL, 05, 2009082706, , BEST, 0, 271N, 717W, 50, 1005, TS,

[tailgater]

What
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41047
Se winds, strange system

humm I guess the LLC reformed well to north or it's pretty much a surface trough.

LLC reformed further north. The plane fixed a center at 27.1N 72W

Thanks I didn't know they were flying a mission this early.

[Thunder44]

000
WTNT45 KNHC 270841
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009
500 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2009

DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41047 AND THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
HAVE BEEN CRITICAL IN LOCATING THE BROAD AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION
OF DANNY THIS MORNING...WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE MADE ANOTHER
NORTHWARD REFORMATION. THE AIR FORCE PLANE FOUND 55 KT WINDS AT 850
MB AND DROPSONDE AND RELIABLE SFMR WINDS OF ABOUT 45 KT. AN EARLIER
NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOWED 12000 FT WINDS OF 66 KT AND
RELIABLE SFMR VALUES OF 45-50 KT. THE NOAA SFMR DATA ALSO
REASONABLY FIT A 2254 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS WHICH HAD A FEW 50 KT WIND
BARBS. THEREFORE...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 50 KT. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT DANNY DOES NOT HAVE A TYPICAL TROPICAL CYCLONE
STRUCTURE AND HAS MOST OF THE STRONG WINDS LOCATED WELL NORTH AND
EAST OF THE CENTER.

WITH ALL THE CENTER REFORMATIONS...THE INITIAL MOTION IS JUST ABOUT
IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE...BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 315/9. DESPITE
THE INITIAL UNCERTAINTY...THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS DANNY MOVES BETWEEN A RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE STORM SHOULD THEN ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO INCREASING FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGER TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED EASTWARD BECAUSE
OF THE CENTER REFORMATION AND THE GOOD TRACK MODEL AGREEMENT.
HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST
TRACK WOULD BRING DANNY CLOSER TO THE U.S. EAST COAST.

WHILE SHEAR IS RELATIVELY LIGHT NEAR DANNY FOR THE TIME BEING...
GLOBAL MODELS INCREASE THE SHEAR WITHIN A DAY OR SO. DESPITE THIS
PATTERN CHANGE...ALL OF THE RELIABLE INTENSITY MODELS MAKE DANNY A
HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
THE SYSTEM INTENSIFYING DESPITE THE SHEAR. SOME OF THIS INCREASE IN
STRENGTH COULD BE DUE TO BAROCLINIC INFLUENCES AS THE GLOBAL MODELS
ARE SHOWING A RATHER DIFFLUENT PATTERN NEAR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITH STRONG JET DYNAMICS. HOWEVER...THIS WOULD ARGUE MORE FOR A
STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE RATHER THAN A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL SHOWS THIS SYSTEM TO BE A HURRICANE IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS BUT GIVEN THE SEEMINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...
THE NHC FORECAST IS LOWER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE AND MAKES DANNY
EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/0900Z 27.4N 72.1W 50 KT
12HR VT 27/1800Z 28.4N 73.1W 50 KT
24HR VT 28/0600Z 30.0N 74.0W 55 KT
36HR VT 28/1800Z 32.3N 74.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 29/0600Z 35.7N 72.9W 65 KT
72HR VT 30/0600Z 44.0N 66.5W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 31/0600Z 50.0N 55.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 01/0600Z 53.0N 40.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[littlevince]

Last NHC discussion:

TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009
500 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2009

DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41047 AND THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
HAVE BEEN CRITICAL IN LOCATING THE BROAD AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION
OF DANNY THIS MORNING...WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE MADE ANOTHER
NORTHWARD REFORMATION. THE AIR FORCE PLANE FOUND 55 KT WINDS AT 850
MB AND DROPSONDE AND RELIABLE SFMR WINDS OF ABOUT 45 KT. AN EARLIER
NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOWED 12000 FT WINDS OF 66 KT AND
RELIABLE SFMR VALUES OF 45-50 KT. THE NOAA SFMR DATA ALSO
REASONABLY FIT A 2254 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS WHICH HAD A FEW 50 KT WIND
BARBS. THEREFORE...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 50 KT. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT DANNY DOES NOT HAVE A TYPICAL TROPICAL CYCLONE
STRUCTURE AND HAS MOST OF THE STRONG WINDS LOCATED WELL NORTH AND
EAST OF THE CENTER.

WITH ALL THE CENTER REFORMATIONS...THE INITIAL MOTION IS JUST ABOUT
IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE...BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 315/9. DESPITE
THE INITIAL UNCERTAINTY...THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS DANNY MOVES BETWEEN A RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE STORM SHOULD THEN ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO INCREASING FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGER TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED EASTWARD BECAUSE
OF THE CENTER REFORMATION AND THE GOOD TRACK MODEL AGREEMENT.
HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST
TRACK WOULD BRING DANNY CLOSER TO THE U.S. EAST COAST.

WHILE SHEAR IS RELATIVELY LIGHT NEAR DANNY FOR THE TIME BEING...
GLOBAL MODELS INCREASE THE SHEAR WITHIN A DAY OR SO. DESPITE THIS
PATTERN CHANGE...ALL OF THE RELIABLE INTENSITY MODELS MAKE DANNY A
HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
THE SYSTEM INTENSIFYING DESPITE THE SHEAR. SOME OF THIS INCREASE IN
STRENGTH COULD BE DUE TO BAROCLINIC INFLUENCES AS THE GLOBAL MODELS
ARE SHOWING A RATHER DIFFLUENT PATTERN NEAR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITH STRONG JET DYNAMICS. HOWEVER...THIS WOULD ARGUE MORE FOR A
STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE RATHER THAN A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL SHOWS THIS SYSTEM TO BE A HURRICANE IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS BUT GIVEN THE SEEMINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...
THE NHC FORECAST IS LOWER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE AND MAKES DANNY
EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/0900Z 27.4N 72.1W 50 KT
12HR VT 27/1800Z 28.4N 73.1W 50 KT
24HR VT 28/0600Z 30.0N 74.0W 55 KT
36HR VT 28/1800Z 32.3N 74.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 29/0600Z 35.7N 72.9W 65 KT
72HR VT 30/0600Z 44.0N 66.5W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 31/0600Z 50.0N 55.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 01/0600Z 53.0N 40.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

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