ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[tailgater]

Where is the buoy located?

27.5N 92.4 W or @ 175 south of SW La. coast

[lostsole]

red in the morning sailors warning! The sky here is a bright ominous red, I can feel the moisture and energy in the air. Both exciting and a little unnerving. Hopefully we will not be in the path of a large cane again. Gonna go get some images of the large pounding surf we have rolling in. Just have this feeling we are going to be on the bad end of the storm in a few days.

[dwsqos2]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42360

33 g 44.7 knots; elevation appears to be standard as well.

[O Town]

Looking a lot better this a.m.
LOOP

[tailgater]

Where is the buoy located?

27.5N 92.4 W or @ 175 south Jennings in SW La.

[Sabanic]

red in the morning sailors warning! The sky here is a bright ominous red, I can feel the moisture and energy in the air. Both exciting and a little unnerving. Hopefully we will not be in the path of a large cane again. Gonna go get some images of the large pounding surf we have rolling in. Just have this feeling we are going to be on the bad end of the storm in a few days.

Kind of having that same feeling here too . . .

[tigergirl]

Tropical rains started around 5ish this morning. Not really moving out that quickly either.

[O Town]

Shear continues to relax.

[wxman57]

Surface obs put the center a good degree north of the NHC position on the last advisory. I have it at 27.5N/91.4W. Could even be a tad north of there. Fair rotation on satellite, though I don't think it really qualifies as a TD quite yet. It should get there today as convection continues to increase. Couldn't believe that first track forecast of quickly inland and gone. I had it making a clockwise loop along the mid LA coast for 36 hrs THEN moving off to he NE on Monday. Looks like the NHC has adjusted their track much closer to that scenario. Looks like Louisiana will be dumped on rain-wise, and we'll be burnt to a crisp here in Houston.

Busy day ahead, gotta go.

[tigergirl]

Has anyone ever seen a forecast like this? 6 days of Tropical storm conditions..:
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... n=-90.3745


LOL never mind...3 days

[WeatherGuesser]

red in the morning sailors warning! The sky here is a bright ominous red, I can feel the moisture and energy in the air. Both exciting and a little unnerving. Hopefully we will not be in the path of a large cane again. Gonna go get some images of the large pounding surf we have rolling in. Just have this feeling we are going to be on the bad end of the storm in a few days.

I've got the same red sky and I'm several hundred miles from any coast and our forecast is 'dry' until at least Sunday.

[wxman57]

Has anyone ever seen a forecast like this? 6 days of Tropical storm conditions..:
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... n=-90.3745

Well, 4 days anyway - Fri-Mon. Enjoy your Labor Day weekend rain. How about sharing some with us, or are you planning on keeping it all for yourself?

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
700 AM CDT FRI SEP 02 2011

...CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE
LOUISIANA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 91.6W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.6 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 1
MPH...2 KM/H. A CONTINUED SLOW AND POSSIBLY ERRATIC MOTION TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH IS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA DURING THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. WINDS
OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE ARE BEING REPORTED ON OIL RIGS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE CENTER AT ELEVATIONS OF A FEW HUNDRED FEET.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE FLOW.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 91.6W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

[T-man]

Sky is grey here, different shades of grey. The bayou is up this morning, and will keep piling up untiil it comes over the banks. Hoping for a loop and a western excursion to bring rain to those who need it. What else can I do? Not looking forward to a flooding event.

[Jagno]

None of the models are taking this East right? Are we in the clear in West Florida. Hoping for a nice LAbor Day weekend.

As a Florida resident you should know all too well that you are never 100% clear until the system is well inland. This system is developing so for now, NOone is 100% clear along the Gulf of Mexico.

[KWT]

Looks like its trying to get there, motion is very slow. As expected this system is not moving as fast as the NHC first believed it would and the global mdoels made that obvious.

Suspect we'll get a mod-strong TS, with the outside chance of hurricane strength, esp if it cvan stay just offshore for long enough.

Rainfall totals could be immense, flooding gonna be a problem...

[cyclogenesis]

September 2, 2011
this Friday morning
642 AM CDT



Gang ~~ I have placed 2 NEW writings on to my website, at 621 AM, this Friday morning, 9/2, that details the specifics of your tropical depression & heavy rainfall & flooding threat to Southeast Louisiana. 2 separate writings are on there about the tropical depression/storm & then after that is the dialogue on flooding rain situation. All of it can be found by going to this website weblink provided below at:



http://cvamagic.tripod.com/






-- cyclogenesis

[Jagno]

Our skies are grey and hazy to the north and west but very dark and ominous to the south and east. Comon' Texans, get close enough to the Sabine and I'll throw some over to you, along with the ants, snakes and mosquitoes that always accompany floods.

People all along the Gulf coast need to just keep a close eye out. No one knows what this system is going to do until it actually develops therefore noone is 100% in the clear as we've seen by our aspiring youth meteorologists on the models.LOL

Our biggest problem would be power outages so plan accordingly. In these temperatures it becomes a huge problem for our ill and elderly.

[KWT]

Rain already starting to spread into LA now, some decent showers moving into the area.

1hr total already estimated at close to an inch in the very far SE of the state where the showers have been coming in at a decent clip.