2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SFLcane]

[DunedinDave]

Usually over the next two weeks, if you fly out over the Atlantic you would hear “Whoop there it is” playing for all the new storms popping up.

This year, it feels like “The Sound of Silence” is playing.

[MGC]

This thread reminds me of August 2022 when ZERO TC formed. September that year was a blockbuster. September is the money month for the Atlantic.....MGC

[chris_fit]

This thread reminds me of August 2022 when ZERO TC formed. September that year was a blockbuster. September is the money month for the Atlantic.....MGC

Yup. Exactly.

[BobHarlem]

This thread reminds me of August 2022 when ZERO TC formed. September that year was a blockbuster. September is the money month for the Atlantic.....MGC

Yup. Exactly.

https://i.imgur.com/0JZDUsr.png

2022 August 26th 12z GFS ** 2022 ** For Sep 03, 2022


Same Sep 3 frame but with today's 6z:


Not quite the same setup.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

This thread reminds me of August 2022 when ZERO TC formed. September that year was a blockbuster. September is the money month for the Atlantic.....MGC

Yup. Exactly.

https://i.imgur.com/0JZDUsr.png

2022 August 26th 12z GFS ** 2022 ** For Sep 03, 2022
https://i.imgur.com/46AAUFH.png

Same Sep 3 frame but with today's 6z:
https://i.imgur.com/6bVzFD3.png

Not quite the same setup.

That says it all, really. I don’t doubt that activity will pick up eventually but there is no sign that it is imminent and certainly no sign that the season is going to “make up for lost time” with an exceptionally active second half.

[LarryWx]

This thread reminds me of August 2022 when ZERO TC formed. September that year was a blockbuster. September is the money month for the Atlantic.....MGC

Yup. Exactly.

https://i.imgur.com/0JZDUsr.png

2022 August 26th 12z GFS ** 2022 ** For Sep 03, 2022
https://i.imgur.com/46AAUFH.png

Same Sep 3 frame but with today's 6z:
https://i.imgur.com/6bVzFD3.png

Not quite the same setup.

However, the various 0Z/6Z ensembles unfortunately suggest it isn’t as simple as looking at the 6Z GFS due to a *potential* TCG within the next week or so.

[Weathertracker96]

I am not sure how to post images but the 12z Icon on pivotal weather is showing activity.

[WaveBreaking]

I am not sure how to post images but the 12z Icon on pivotal weather is showing activity.

You can upload the image to Imgur and copy and paste the BBCode link from the “Get Share Links” button to post an image btw.

12z ICON

[wxman57]

I am not sure how to post images but the 12z Icon on pivotal weather is showing activity.

Yeah, I like that west Gulf low on the icon along a strong cold front. Dew points in the low to mid-60s in Houston. Better get my coat out.

[aspen]

I am not sure how to post images but the 12z Icon on pivotal weather is showing activity.

You can upload the image to Imgur and copy and paste the BBCode link from the “Get Share Links” button to post an image btw.

12z ICON
https://i.imgur.com/K9eQbWl.gif

There’s the AI-Euro’s MDR system on that run. Wonder if maybe it’ll finally appear on the operational GFS and Euro given how active their ensembles were earlier today.

[Category5Kaiju]

This thread reminds me of August 2022 when ZERO TC formed. September that year was a blockbuster. September is the money month for the Atlantic.....MGC

Yup. Exactly.

https://i.imgur.com/0JZDUsr.png

2022 August 26th 12z GFS ** 2022 ** For Sep 03, 2022
https://i.imgur.com/46AAUFH.png

Same Sep 3 frame but with today's 6z:
https://i.imgur.com/6bVzFD3.png

Not quite the same setup.

Oh yeah, I remember that quite well haha. In 2022, the models had this thing where they would develop something, only for that system to drastically lose support closer to the projected timeframe. Now THAT was the sign of an heavily unfavorable environment.

[LarryWx]

I am not sure how to post images but the 12z Icon on pivotal weather is showing activity.

You can upload the image to Imgur and copy and paste the BBCode link from the “Get Share Links” button to post an image btw.

12z ICON
https://i.imgur.com/K9eQbWl.gif

There’s the AI-Euro’s MDR system on that run. Wonder if maybe it’ll finally appear on the operational GFS and Euro given how active their ensembles were earlier today.

Ironically the AI-Euro abandoned its MDR system after having it in a very similar position/timeframe on 23 runs in a row that went through the 18Z run of two days ago. Since the 0Z run of yesterday (last 6 runs), it hasn’t returned even while the ensembles and ICON have been showing an increased chance for a TCG matching those 23 AI-Euro runs. Is that weird?

[ConvergenceZone]

I was talking to a good friend of mine who use to work for the NHC over 15 years ago, and we both agreed that forecasting a certain amount of storms is dumb. I really wish they would stop doing it. It's much better just to say that it will be an average, or below average or above average year. Trying to predict the exact amount of storms like they do is like those who try and predict the stock market over the next year. Predicting an exact number of storms doesn't make sense, as it's pretty much unpredictable, just as we are seeing this year. Way too many variables.

['CaneFreak]

Looks like support is growing for at least one tropical development in the area bounded by 10 N 60 W and 10 N and 20 W. That's a wall of ensemble members showing something going on. We should have something to track here within the next week I would imagine. ITCZ has shifted south to 10 N now and things are changing out there quickly.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2024082612/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_atl_28.png

[toad strangler]

I was talking to a good friend of mine who use to work for the NHC over 15 years ago, and we both agreed that forecasting a certain amount of storms is dumb. I really wish they would stop doing it. It's much better just to say that it will be an average, or below average or above average year. Trying to predict the exact amount of storms like they do is like those who try and predict the stock market over the next year. Predicting an exact number of storms doesn't make sense, as it's pretty much unpredictable, just as we are seeing this year. Way too many variables.

Disagree. The prediction is a range, not an exact amount. And it absolutely makes sense to attempt as it furthers the science of forecasting whether it's a bust or verifies. IMO of course.

[LarryWx]

I was talking to a good friend of mine who use to work for the NHC over 15 years ago, and we both agreed that forecasting a certain amount of storms is dumb. I really wish they would stop doing it. It's much better just to say that it will be an average, or below average or above average year. Trying to predict the exact amount of storms like they do is like those who try and predict the stock market over the next year, it's absolutely useless and unpredictable, just as we are seeing this year.

1. NOAA imho kind of already does that with their very wide ranges.

2. 12Z GEFS: almost as active as 6Z with the lead wave we’ve been discussing along with some members developing the followup MDR wave.

3. 12Z UKMET: no TCG

[cheezyWXguy]

12z gfs looks like it actually develops the wave with ensemble support. The catch is, it doesn’t develop it until 336hr when it’s approaching the southern gulf. It also briefly develops a system near Cabo Verde and a third in the central Atlantic, all pretty weak through 336hr though.

12z gefs starts to pick up on the signal for the first wave around hour 114, fairly strong signature a day or so later

[LarryWx]

12z gfs looks like it actually develops the wave with ensemble support. The catch is, it doesn’t develop it until 336hr when it’s approaching the southern gulf. It also briefly develops a system near Cabo Verde and a third in the central Atlantic, all pretty weak through 336hr though.

12z gefs starts to pick up on the signal for the first wave around hour 114, fairly strong signature a day or so later

Also, the 12Z CMC has a weak reflection of this same AEW at the surface (stronger than 0Z run) that moves WNW to S Bahamas at 240. Could be a warning of sorts. I think a bear watch may need to be issued soon.

[ConvergenceZone]

I was talking to a good friend of mine who use to work for the NHC over 15 years ago, and we both agreed that forecasting a certain amount of storms is dumb. I really wish they would stop doing it. It's much better just to say that it will be an average, or below average or above average year. Trying to predict the exact amount of storms like they do is like those who try and predict the stock market over the next year. Predicting an exact number of storms doesn't make sense, as it's pretty much unpredictable, just as we are seeing this year. Way too many variables.

Disagree. The prediction is a range, not an exact amount. And it absolutely makes sense to attempt as it furthers the science of forecasting whether it's a bust or verifies. IMO of course.

Because it IS a range, that's exactly why it's better to just say "normal" or "above activity" or "below activity". They do this with temperatures and precipitation all the time. They forecast either normal temps or precipitation or above/below etc for the upcoming seasons ahead. They never give a temp range or precip range, because they know you just can't predict that. As they say, guess we will just have to agree to disagree