Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ANA LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
741 PM AST SAT AUG 15 2009

...TROPICAL STORM ANA TO IMPACT THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND PUERTO RICO BY MONDAY EVENING...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATERS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
AT THIS TIME...THERE ARE NO TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS
IN EFFECT FOR OUR AREA. HOWEVER...AS THIS EVENT CONTINUES TO UNFOLD
...THE ISSUANCE OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR THE LOCAL AREA MAY BE
REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 8 PM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.4 WEST...OR ABOUT 730 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.. THIS IS ABOUT 975 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAINT CROIX OR ABOUT 1080 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF SAN JUAN. ANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 17 MPH AND MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 40 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
AT THE PRESENT MOMENT...TROPICAL STORM ANA IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. AT THIS TIME...IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE EXACT
WIND...RAINFALL...AND SURGE FORECAST VALUES FOR SPECIFIC
LOCATIONS. A GENERAL CONCERN SHOULD BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND FLASH FLOODING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EVEN BEFORE THE ISSUANCE OF WATCHES OR WARNINGS...IT MAY BECOME
NECESSARY FOR LOCAL AUTHORITIES TO ACTIVATE THEIR TROPICAL
CYCLONE EMERGENCY PLANS. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE YOUR FAVORITE
MEDIA OUTLET FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

THIS IS A GOOD TIME FOR RESIDENTS TO GO OVER THEIR HURRICANE
DISASTER PLAN. VISITORS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CHECK WITH HOTEL
MANAGEMENT OR WITH LOCAL OFFICIALS REGARDING ANY ACTIONS THEY
SHOULD TAKE.

DO NOT FOCUS ON THE SKINNY BLACK LINE.

A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS NOT A POINT ON A MAP...THE
DANGEROUS EFFECTS OF A STORM CAN EXTEND SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
AWAY FROM THE CENTER. IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE CONE OF
UNCERTAINTY...YOU COULD STILL EXPERIENCE HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL...SERIOUSLY IMPACTING LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THE FOLLOWING ARE SUGGESTED ACTIONS THAT CAN BE TAKEN AT THIS
TIME...

CHECK BATTERIES FOR RADIOS AND FLASHLIGHTS. STOCK UP ON DRINKING
WATER AND CANNED OR DRIED FOOD. ENSURE YOU HAVE A MANUAL CAN
OPENER.

HAVE ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER FOR AT LEAST THREE TO FIVE DAYS PER
PERSON. GATHER MEDICINES...TOILETRIES...AND FIRST AID SUPPLIES.

HAVE A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF CASH ON HAND SINCE CREDIT CARDS AND
AUTOMATED CASH MACHINES DO NOT WORK WITHOUT POWER.

CHECK FUEL LEVELS ON AUTOMOBILES...GENERATORS...AND CHAIN SAWS.

IF YOU NEED TO MAKE A TRIP TO THE HARDWARE STORE...THE GROCERY
STORE...OR THE GAS STATION...DO SO AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE.

PLEASE VISIT http://WWW.READY.GOV FOR A MORE COMPLETE LIST OF ITEMS TO
INCLUDE IN AN EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS KIT.

DETERMINE WHERE YOU SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IF THE STORM APPROACHES
YOUR AREA. CONSIDER WHETHER YOU LIVE IN A POTENTIAL EVACUATION
ZONE. LEARN THE LOCATIONS OF OFFICIAL SHELTERS. IN ALL
CASES...HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY
ORDERS THAT ARE ISSUED.

MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR UNSAFE
CONDITIONS. CONSIDER EARLY STEPS FOR SECURING YOUR CRAFT. IF SMALL
CRAFT MUST GO OUT AND CURRENT CONDITIONS ALLOW...DO NOT VENTURE
FAR FROM PORT AND DO NOT STAY OUT VERY LONG. RETURN TO PORT
QUICKLY IF A WATCH OR WARNING IS ISSUED.

[Gustywind]

Looks sheared but fighting again, slight increasing convection...

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 160247
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 15 2009

THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF ANA HAS BEEN PULSATING AND AFTER
AN INCREASE FOR A FEW HOURS...THE LOW LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME
EXPOSED AGAIN. THIS MEANS ANNA IS NOT STRENGTHENING AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS. A NOAA JET FLEW AGAIN TONIGHT AND ONE
OF THE DROPS NEAR THE CENTER MEASURED A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1004 MB
WHICH WAS USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE SHEAR IS NOT VERY STRONG AS
DIAGNOSED BY THE SHIPS MODELS BUT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ANA IS
SIMPLY MOVING TOO FAST. THIS RAPID MOTION IS PROBABLY NOT TOO
CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION. IN FACT...THE ONLY DYNAMICAL MODELS
THAT KEEP ANA ARE THE UK AND THE NOGAPS. THE REST OF THEM WEAKEN
ANA TO A TROPICAL WAVE. I AM TEMPTED TO SHOW WEAKENING BUT FOR
NOW...I AM GOING TO FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SHIPS MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SLOW STRENGTHENING THROUGH 48
HOURS FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AS THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH
HISPANIOLA AND CUBA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/15. ANA IS EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG AND
PERSISTENT TRADE WINDS AND ONLY A SMALL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A LITTLE BIT SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE BUT IS
WELL INSIDE THE ENVELOPE THROUGH 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...SOME MODELS
KEEP A WEAKER ANA SOUTH OF CUBA AND OTHERS BRING THE CYCLONE OVER
CUBA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND FOLLOWS THE NORTHERNMOST GROUP
OF MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0300Z 14.4N 51.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 16/1200Z 14.7N 54.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 17/0000Z 15.5N 57.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 17/1200Z 16.5N 61.2W 45 KT
48HR VT 18/0000Z 17.5N 65.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 19/0000Z 19.5N 73.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 20/0000Z 22.5N 78.9W 35 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT 21/0000Z 25.0N 83.6W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Gustywind]

HEY HEY looks like a direct HIT on Guadeloupe . Cycloneye be carefull seems that given this path you're on the route for a threat too...
Look at that

[cycloneye]

Yes Gusty.Lets see how the track changes in the next advisory.Good night to all and be safe.It will be a long day of preparations tommorow.

[Gustywind]

Yes Gusty.Lets see how the track changes in the next advisory.Good night to all and be safe.It will be a long day of preparations tommorow.

Tkanks my friend. Good night to you and all, yeah waiting for the next advisory. Preparations tommorow busy days ahead for the islands. Keep the faith and be safe!

[Gustywind]

Anna... light burst, still a fighter!

[knotimpaired]

US Coast Guard 9:32pn last night

My layman terms for the x-y-z rule

X-Ray - Prepare your port for approaching storm

Yankee - Leave port to you final destination (in our case the ferries go to San Juan)

Zebra - You really messed up. We told you to leave. Batten down the hatches.



News Release Aug. 15, 2009
Contact: Ricardo Castrodad
(787) 510-7923

Captain of the Port increases ports conditions for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico

“Tropical Storm Ana"

SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico – The Coast Guard Sector San Juan Captain of the Port, Capt. Eduardo Pino, increased port conditions for the ports in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Saturday due to the expectation that gale force winds generated by Tropical Storm Ana will arrive within 48 hours.
Port Conditions for the U.S. Virgin Islands:

The Captain of the Port has set Port Condition X-Ray for the ports in Saint John, Saint Thomas and Saint Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands.

Port Conditions for Puerto Rico:
The Captain of the Port has also set Port Condition X-Ray for the ports of Vieques, Culebra, Fajardo, Yabucoa, San Juan, Ponce, Guayanilla, Guanica and Arecibo, Puerto Rico, and he anticipates setting Port Condition X-Ray for the port of Mayaguez, Puerto Rico by 10 p.m. Saturday.

Waterfront facilities should be removing potential flying debris, hazardous materials and pollutants from dockside areas. All oceangoing commercial vessels greater than 200 gross tons must prepare to depart the port and shall depart immediately upon setting port condition YANKEE, which is anticipated to be set Sunday afternoon. Vessels unable to depart the port must contact the Captain of the Port and submit a safe mooring plan in writing when requesting and prior to receiving permission to remain in port. Inbound vessels that will be unable to depart the port upon the setting of port condition YANKEE are advised to seek an alternate destination.

Ports, facilities and operators should anticipate additional restrictions on inbound and outbound traffic as Tropical Storm Ana approaches.

Mariners should prepare for impending severe weather prior to the anticipated arrival of gale force winds or when an evacuation is in progress.

[knotimpaired]

The NHC says that PR is now under a Tropical Storm Watch.

[knotimpaired]

NWS forecast for Vieques for the next few days

PRZ013-162030-
VIEQUES-
531 AM AST SUN AUG 16 2009

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...

.TODAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. HIGHS 91 LOWER
ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 80 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT.
.
TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN
VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS 82 LOWER
ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 71 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND
15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.
MONDAY...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. MOSTLY CLOUDY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
90 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 80 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 15 MPH INCREASING TO NORTH 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
60 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.

.MONDAY NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 82 LOWER
ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 74 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. NORTHEAST WINDS 50 TO
60 MPH BECOMING SOUTHEAST AND DECREASING TO 40 TO 50 MPH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 80 MPH DECREASING TO 65 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.
TUESDAY...VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS 92 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO
80 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN
40 PERCENT.

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 160928
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
528 AM AST SUN AUG 16 2009

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE DOMINATING THE LOCAL AREA
AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM ANA WILL APPROACH THE
LOCAL REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM BILL IS FORECAST TO
PASS NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES DOMINATING
THE LOCAL AREA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DETECTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR...ACROSS THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS. FEW OF THESE SHOWERS BRUSHED THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER LITTLE ACCUMULATION OF RAINFALL
WAS OBSERVED. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF MOISTURE
EXTENDING FROM A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTH. LATEST MIMIC
TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS INDICATED THAT THIS LINE OF MOISTURE WILL
NOT STAY FOR TOO LONG OVER THE LOCAL AREA. AN AREA OF DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE LATER TODAY FROM THE EAST. HOWEVER...LATEST WV SATELLITE
IMAGES AS WELL AS THE LATEST UPPER SOUNDING FROM TJSJ AT 00Z
INDICATED ENOUGH MOISTURE AT MID TO UPPER LEVEL DUE IN FACT TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS
MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING....WILL BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS STILL
TROPICAL STORM ANA...AND TROPICAL STORM BILL. FIRST AT ALL...LET
START WITH ANA. ANA HAS BEEN STRUGGLING THIS MORNING TO SURVIVE.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED AN EXPOSE CENTER...WITH THE DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. DRIER AIR
INTRUSION LOOKS THE MAIN FACTOR THAT IS AFFECTING ANA AT THIS
MOMENT. ALTHOUGH ANA LOOKS IN BAD SHAPE THIS MOMENT...STILL SOME
POTENTIAL THAT ANA WILL FIND BETTER ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...BEFORE APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA.

IN THE MEANTIME...TROPICAL STORM BILL WHICH IS LOCATED IN THE FAR
EASTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. AFTER...NHC FORECAST TRACK INDICATED THAT BILL WILL
TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...PASSING NEAR 250 MILES NORTHEAST
OF THE LOCAL AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...TRACK ERRORS AT FIVE
DAYS ARE TYPICALLY IN THE ORDER OF 300 NM. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
LARGE SIZE OF THIS STORM WE ALSO NEED TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
THIS STORM. THEREFORE...DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE
INTENSITY OF ANA...AND THE FUTURE TRACK OF BILL...RESIDENTS OF PR
AND THE USVI ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER OVER THE WEEKEND AND GO OVER THEIR
HURRICANE DISASTER PLANS IN CASE THE THREAT FROM THIS TWO TROPICAL
SYSTEMS BECOMES MORE REAL.

[Gustywind]

Things are really heating up today as Anna is approaching the Leewards especially my island of Guadeloupe as the path is showing a direct hit from Anna. Let's hope the things change quickly. Hopefully Anna looks like sheared system without too much bad weather but but let's see what pan's out from this woman, we never knows! The weaker they are the more suspicious they are...near the islands!
Yellow alert has been requiered since yesterday morning, looks like given our Pro Mets of Meteo-France that we could experienced an orange at 12 AM. Us in the islands, continue to monitor this system very very carefully. Msbee, Luis be vigilant today too...the others from the Windwards.

ANNA

Looks sheared but new burst seems to refire steadily,


Does not looking good...




Guadeloupe under a direct threat ...

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 160904
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
500 AM AST SUN AUG 16 2009

AN ASCAT PASS AT 00Z SUGGESTED THAT ANA WAS STILL A TROPICAL STORM
AT THAT TIME...BUT IT CONTINUES MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD WITH VERY
LITTLE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...AND MAY HAVE WEAKENED. FOR NOW
HOWEVER...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED. THE ENVIRONMENT
THROUGH WHICH ANA IS MOVING IS VERY DRY...AND THE SYSTEM HAS HAD
DIFFICULTY MAINTAINING CONVECTION. THERE IS STILL INTENSITY
GUIDANCE SHOWING AT LEAST SOME SHORT TERM INTENSIFICATION...AND SO
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REFLECT THAT. LATER ON...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED DUE TO ANTICIPATED INTERACTION WITH LAND.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. ANA
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW AND THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS WELL CLUSTERED. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS STILL SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0900Z 14.6N 53.8W 35 KT
12HR VT 16/1800Z 15.0N 56.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 17/0600Z 15.9N 60.4W 40 KT
36HR VT 17/1800Z 16.8N 64.6W 40 KT
48HR VT 18/0600Z 17.6N 68.2W 45 KT
72HR VT 19/0600Z 20.0N 76.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 20/0600Z 23.0N 82.0W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 21/0600Z 25.0N 85.0W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN




000
WTNT22 KNHC 160859
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
0900 UTC SUN AUG 16 2009

AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
PUERTO RICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...MONTSERRAT...
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA... T.KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST.
MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ANA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 53.8W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 53.8W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 52.9W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.0N 56.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 15.9N 60.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 16.8N 64.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.6N 68.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 30SE 30SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 20.0N 76.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 23.0N 82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 25.0N 85.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 53.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN



000
WTNT32 KNHC 160859
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
500 AM AST SUN AUG 16 2009

...ANA CONTINUES WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
PUERTO RICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...MONTSERRAT...
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA... T.KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST.
MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ANA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.8 WEST OR ABOUT 560
MILES...900 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF
ANA SHOULD REACH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

ANA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.6N 53.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Gustywind]

Ana...always drifting west as the NHC mentionned... Keep watching Windwards too, be prepared in case of...
000
WTNT32 KNHC 161137
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
800 AM AST SUN AUG 16 2009

...ANA RACING WESTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...MONTSERRAT...
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST. MAARTEN...
SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ANA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.7 WEST OR ABOUT 470
MILES...755 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
CENTER OF ANA SHOULD REACH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

ANA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

...SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.6N 54.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS

[msbee]

good morning everyone

Gusty, it looks worse for you this morning in regards to Ana. Yesterday it looked worse for me.
Don't we all feel like we are bobbing up and down on a yo yo string?
I hope Ana keeps weakening. We all know that even a tropical storm can cause problems for our weak ecosystems on the islands.

Now on to Bill. Am I correct in saying that NHC has its present course going 250 NM North of the islands?
Am I also correct in saying that there is a lot of room for error in this?
so the bottom line, I guess, is we must all keep watching the updates and keep bouncing up and down on a yo yo string.

Barbara

[cycloneye]

Yes Barbara,the yo-yo string continues.Here,even strong waves cause major flooding problems.Bill is my main interest.Lets see how the track will be eventually.

[Gustywind]

good morning everyone

Gusty, it looks worse fo waitr you this morning in regards to Ana. Yesterday it looked worse for me.
Don't we all feel like we are bobbing up and down on a yo yo string?
I hope Ana keeps weakening. We all know that even a tropical storm can cause problems for our weak ecosystems on the islands.

Now on to Bill. Am I correct in saying that NHC has its present course going 250 NM North of the islands?
Am I also correct in saying that there is a lot of room for error in this?
so the bottom line, I guess, is we must all keep watching the updates and keep bouncing up and down on a yo yo string.

Barbara

Good Morning Barbara, yeah it's a yoyo string i'm wearing it for this morning lol Anna wants to pass in vicinity of Guadeloupe, let's wait and see. Seems weak but we should not let our guard down as an orange code is anticipated at 12 AM.
For Bill it's another story our Pro Mets say that Bill could be near Guadeloupe as a CANE or just near the Leewards and Northern Leew Wednesday night to Thursday, let's hope the best for us after a difficult year ( historical strike in Guadeloupe).

[Gustywind]

Yes Barbara,the yo-yo string continues.Here,even strong waves cause major flooding problems.Bill is my main interest.Lets see how the track will be eventually.

Absolutely Luis, you're right that could be very suspicious in our island. Bill is our main interrest in Guadeloupe as our Pro Met are already forecastibg this thing to be hurricane near the Leewards or just east of them next week (Wednesday night/Thursday). H
ey hey, we should keep an eye on the latest wave emerging of Africa seems that the models want to developP it to in the heels of Bill...and moving on a west direction but let's see what pan's out with Anna first and Bill after.
Stay safe an be prudent.

[msbee]

Yes Barbara,the yo-yo string continues.Here,even strong waves cause major flooding problems.Bill is my main interest.Lets see how the track will be eventually.

I know just what you mean. After that strong thunderstorm last week, we had minor flooding.
A really strong wave or even a weak storm could cause us all flooding problems

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 161030
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
630 AM AST SUN AUG 16 2009

NUMEROUS SHOWERS PASSED AROUND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT
BUT ONLY A FEW DAMPENED THE ISLANDS. SAINT THOMAS AT CHARLOTTE
AMALIE RECORDED TWO ONE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. THOUGH NONE WERE
OBSERVED IN FREDERIKSTED...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR NOTED
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE ISLAND OF SAINT CROIX. SKIES
WERE PARTLY CLOUDY AND LOW TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AT 5 AM AST...TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6
NORTH...53.8 WEST OR ABOUT 560 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST FROM THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND IS MOVING WEST AT 20 MPH. ANA IS FORECAST TO
TRACK VERY CLOSE TO OR DIRECTLY OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ALSO AS OF 5 AM AST...TROPICAL STORM BILL WAS NEAR 11.4
NORTH...37.2 WEST OR ABOUT 1640 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
TROPICAL STORM BILL IS ALSO FORECAST TO TRACK JUST NORTHEAST OF
THE LOCAL AREA ON THURSDAY...AND THEREFORE SHOULD BE MONITORED
CLOSELY BY THE PUBLIC. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN
WILL ISSUE MORE ON THESE SYSTEMS AND THE RAINFALL EXPECTED FROM
THEM WHEN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE BETTER
KNOWN.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGED TO MAKE PRELIMINARY
PREPARATIONS FOR INCLEMENT WEATHER.

SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...UNTIL
MONDAY...AT WHICH TIME SEAS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE ONSET
OF TROPICAL STORM ANA.
$$