Are Recent Trends Offering Winter Hints?

[donsutherland1]

As of 3 pm, a wild storm continued to rake the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley states northward and much of Ontario, Quebec, and New Brunswick with high winds--those venturing outside would probably argue that severe blowing hair warnings should also be in effect.

In parts of Quebec, showers and rain have now changed to snow and moderate to heavy snow will likely move into the Montreal and Quebec City areas as the afternoon and evening progress. Some areas could pick up beaucoup de neige. Parts of northern New England should receive an appreciable snowfall.

As of 3 pm, some conditions included:

Boston: 51 Partly Sunny (29.16S)--Gusts to 35 mph
Burlington: 41 Light Sleet (28.97F)--Gusts to 31 mph
New York City: 47 Partly Sunny (29.45R)--Gusts to 49 mph
Richmond: 52 Partly Sunny (29.86R)--Gusts to 36 mph


This <b>amplification</b>, which was foreseen by a number of us--<b>King of Weather</b>, for example--signals what I believe is the start of a transitional period.

To be sure, after the brief cold shot in the wake of today's storm (Friday and Saturday will be the coldest days), milder weather will return. I expect another amplification perhaps 5-6 days down the road followed by another shot of cold air.

This next cold shot continues to draw reasonable support from the Canadian Ensembles.

In addition, the turn to negative for the NAO on which I was keying has just occurred. I anticipate that it will remain negative for at least the next week to ten days, though not necessarily strongly negative.

Hence, I continue to believe that the 11/19-21 cold shot will be decent, with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s from Washington, DC to Boston (colder outside the big cities, of course).

This cold shot will not mark the start of a new pattern, however. In fact--and I can hear the curses cascading at me--I believe a ridge along or off the East Coast will try to make a comeback following this cold shot. Hence, readings are likely to climb to above normal to much above normal levels for a spell afterward. At this time, I am confident that 60s are likely at the peak of the warmth in both New York City and Boston.

Finally, there remain hints that maybe--just maybe--a more important change to a colder regime could begin to unfold around 11/27-29, possibly following another important storm. However, there are arguments against this, most notably indications that the Pacific jet could again strengthen around that timeframe.

[Tip]

I have heard a few long range forecasters mention the PAC Jet being energized or as some say roaring. This conclusion leads them to a warmer than normal East Coast November and maybe December since a any attempt at a west coast ridge will be beaten down by the jet. Without an even weak EL NINO to fuel the PAC jet or as sometimes referred to as the Pineapple Express in El Nino years, there must be something else involved. The only thing that stands out in the SST anomoly map is some higher than normal temps around the Bering Sea and off the NE coast. So I not sure why the EPAC jet would have an overwhelming influence on any long term weather pattern. Maybe I'm missing something? Thanks for any comments.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/c ... anomv2.gif

Oh by the way this latest Quebec Bomb has created one of the worst windstorms in central Jersey in recent history. Still around 980 mil with another trough spinning around the main storm entering western NY at this time
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/weather/difax/3096.gif

[donsutherland1]

Tip,

With regard to the Pacific Jet, my reference refers to a possible new up pulse that would be temporary. I am not suggesting that the Pacific jet will dominate for much of the winter ala a modate El Nino (W) and apologize for any confusion I might have created. In fact, I believe that the Pacific signals will be fairly weak this winter even with a possible borderline El Nino (N/W-). Warm anomalies should also be greater in 3.4 than 1+2.

Overall, I'm believe the odds more strongly favor a return of cold to the East starting in the 11/27-29 period.

[Tip]

Don,

Sorry for the confusion. I wasn't specially referring to you forecasting a prolonged PAC Jet. When you mentioned it in you post the thought of other references to it just came to mind. With the indicies lining up (-NAO,+PNA and -AO in the next two weeks, we will see if the east turns colder and snowier. However, from my experience with the 2000-2001 nigntmare winter, it is not always a lock lol.

[donsutherland1]

With regard to two possible opportunities for colder weather, I had previously </b>noted</b> prospects for the 11/19-21 period.

The latest data indicates that any chill behind a possible mid-week storm will not be impressive. In fact, it could be minimal.

See the 850 mb temperature evolution for the past 4 days:

<img src="http://www5.wright-weather.com/bb/attachment.php?s=&postid=127479">

Cold air is retreating from the eastern U.S. In addition, it is unlikely that the slowly advancing cold air in western Canada will come into the eastern U.S. this week.

Hence, based on this information, the strongest push of cold air now appears to be that which should occur starting during the 11/27-29 period. The Pacific Jet will need to be watched, as it could help blunt or delay this push of cold, as well.

[WEATHER53]

Also showing up in last few days are precipitation shield that were forecasted to make it into DC metro instead sliding south. As we discussed in our outlook issued in late Sept we expcect a lot of supressive low movement this year, thru Virginia and North Carolina split between lows moving over or west of applchns, like they have been doing for 6 weeks, and Very little up the coast moves. A cold storm around 11/20 with possible snow for mid atlantic is getting kicked around- I do not see that and think in fact it will be another west of applchns mover, but I am still on for something of real interest, and a rarity for this season I believe, which is coastal action in 11/29-12/2 time frame.

[LehighValleyForcaster]

I've been saying this from the beginning.

I still think we will have a late start with winter and a early spring.

I also know we will have cold snaps and maybe a storm or two before winter ends.

I also said that the Northeast may not even see any snow because of the mild temps.

I did say we may even see some snow showers here, now and then, but nothing that will stick around or brag about.

Jan and Feb will be our only hope with the possibility of another El Nino developing that can change things for the better or the worse.

All we can do is wait and watch and maybe we will be lucky.

As of now.......the cold snaps will come and go and some snow activity possibly that will not stick around long.


____________________________________________________________

Such variability could lead to unseasonable severe weather outbreaks and big snows all in the same week ... sometimes from the same system ...

IF November is bringing us any precursor, it's going to be quite a roller coaster ride this winter, with probably no real prolonged WARM or COLD situations.

SF

[donsutherland1]

Weather53,

Your seasonal forecast is doing very well, so far. I don't agree with the speculation of a cold storm for 11/20 and as the 850 mb chart showed, the cold air will almost certainly be lacking for that storm.

The latter storm you're describing, if it verifies, should be a real coup for you, as you have been mentioning it for some time now.

[Guest]

Weather53,

Your seasonal forecast is doing very well, so far. I don't agree with the speculation of a cold storm for 11/20 and as the 850 mb chart showed, the cold air will almost certainly be lacking for that storm.

The latter storm you're describing, if it verifies, should be a real coup for you, as you have been mentioning it for some time now.

Yea the storm towards the end of the month has alot of peoples intrest and has some backing anyways as far as the NAO,PNA etc suggest..........The storm for 11/20 looks to a big rain maker atleast for quite a few and as well a big severe producer for tomorrow into Tuesday......................Higher elevation snows at best for now from this storm..................

[donsutherland1]

Just a quick update...

In terms of the idea for temperature extremes for the November 16-30 period, the following ideas had been provided:

Estimated November 16-30, 2003 Extremes:
Boston: 63-23
New York City: 64-26
Washington, DC: 67-26

The following highs have so far been achieved:
Boston: 60
New York City: 64
Washington, DC: 70

At this time, the lowest temperatures are far off the initial ideas--so far, in fact, that the initial ideas appear out of sight.

But, there should be two opportunities to trim the prodigious gap between the actual lows and the forecast idea:

1) Tuesday night-Wednesday night
2) Near the very end of the month

The idea that "readings will probably average near normal to somewhat above normal in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions" still looks good. What looks less well is the idea that central and northern New England could see readings near normal to somewhat below normal.

The NAO is also behaving pretty much as anticipated at this point.

The snowfall estimates for the month are also looking all right, when one examines the most recent model guidance.

For now, there's no need to think of snowfall. The unseasonably mild weather will continue through Monday before more seasonable air returns for the aforementioned Tuesday-Wednesday period.

[Tip]

The current indice for the PNA is astonishingly negative, about as negative as I've ever seen it.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip ... index.html

This indicator seems to verify the power of the pattern now in place and may take quite awhile to dislodge.

[WEATHER53]

To me the storm in 11/29-12/2 time frame is looking more, and not less, possible and althou it will be rain, it will be very cool with temps in DC in low 40's.

[WEATHER53]

I am not a model follower but the guys at WWBB are starting to clamour about the storm system for the weekend shown on the models.

[Guest]

Well 53 first off the storm looks to be on Thursday-Friday timeframe IMO. Secondly i wouldnt encourage anyone going overthere unless they plan on taking a beating (Flamed) or such.

After thinking long and hard about it the last couple of days all i can say is it is a very unpleasent and especially a very UN-PROFESSIONAL atmosphere at WWBB. And to really sum it up i would have to say that you can get the same quality info here at Storm2K (If not better and more broader) verses WWBB.
IMHO if those guys (Few btw) are so good then why all the disagreements over there and as well if they were so good then they could try and prove it here in a more civilized atmosphere???? RNS,DON,SF,Tip, And a few others both Pro (Who shall remain namless unless they want the credit), and amature's (As good as anyone on wwbb) can do it! Why cant they??????? Lastly unlike wwbb we have great contributers (Pro's & Great Amatures) from Coast to Coast and over seas! That not even wwbb can even come close to!!!!

Have a good day!

[Upslope]

King,

You are so right about the WWBB! Ihad my first run in with DT over there and I HAD to resort to letting him have it!

It's ridiculous that they have to try to tear down what others have to say. Even weeks before the events take place. Truely sad and pathetic!

Thos on this board seem to be very courteous and wel mannered! Not to mentioned with a ton of weather knowledge! My kind of place!

[Stephanie]

Welcome Upslope!!!

I think that the pro and amatuer forecasters that are really serious about giving a good forecast and having some good discussions end up over here. We are by far the winners!

[cycloneye]

Welcome to storm2k and the winter forum where you will not see a repetition of WWBB but here we have great discussions where everyone has an opinion and are all respected.And we also have great anaylisis and forecasts from the experts in winter weather so this is the place to be in the net when you want to know what winter will be like this season and how much snow will fall in your neck of the woods.

[NEwxgirl]

I've been saying this from the beginning.

I still think we will have a late start with winter and a early spring.

I also know we will have cold snaps and maybe a storm or two before winter ends.

I also said that the Northeast may not even see any snow because of the mild temps.

I did say we may even see some snow showers here, now and then, but nothing that will stick around or brag about.

Jan and Feb will be our only hope with the possibility of another El Nino developing that can change things for the better or the worse.

All we can do is wait and watch and maybe we will be lucky.

As of now.......the cold snaps will come and go and some snow activity possibly that will not stick around long.

Lehighvalleyforecaster, I'm sorry but i would have to disagree, what you are saying here (from what you wrote) is that you expect little if any snowfall here in the northeast, along the lines of 2001/02. This is not only unlikey, but there is there is absolutely no support for it.

Lets stop a second here and look at 2001-02 verses what we have going on this year>>>

First of all there is the eastern pacific signal.

SSTA analysis for 11/24/01>>>

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 4.2001.gif

Notice the very cold water in the gulf of Alaska, and no signs of warmer SSTA surrounding the west coast of north america, Alaska or russia. We also have very warm SSTA northwest of hawaii. the combination of the cold water in the gulf of alaska and the warm water northwest of hawaii helped to create a very strong pacific low centered in the gulf of alaska, and anchored in place by the warm water to the west northwest of hawaii which is a very strong ridging signal. overall though the very warm water to the northwest of hawaii and the cold water in the gulf of alaska practically screams the signal for a presistently positive EPO.

500 hPa heights in november 2001>>>

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/Composi ... reate+Plot

with a very strong pacific low, located in the gulf of alaska, downstream ridging developed across north america which is common when the pacific low is located in this position. the height pattern which you see in the figure above corresponds very will with a strongly positive EPO.

500 hPa height and 2m AGL temperatures in correlation with a positive EPO>>>



This Fall the EPO has been negative>>>



The North Atlantic and Arctic oscillations.

The ATC in 2001-02 was within the long term strong cycle (more even heat distribution betwen the tropics and polar regions, decreased horizontal thermal gradient with warm water in the tropics and north atlantic and cold water in the middle making up the atlantic tripole) with a very well established SSTA gradient. we also had cold water off the west coast of europe and surrounding scandinavia>>>>

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 4.2001.gif

based on this information, you would easily be able to pick out the fact that the atlantic signal would favor a neutral to negative NAO in the means throughout the winter. Due to the high solar activity, and the influence the corresponding geomagnetic activity, the icelandic low was allowed to strengthen (which is consistent with this type of activity). because of this, the NAO was mostly positive, whereas otherwise without the solar activity, it would not have been.

the cold SSTA west of europe and near scandinavia would have lead to below normal heights and presistent troughing, in those locations, teleconnecting to a trough in the eastern united states, should those factors been allowed to dominate.

This fall the AO and NAO have seen strong negative periods in october>>>

Cross-section of the Northern hemispheric PV and 1000mb Arctic oscillation observation>>>



The NAO has also seen a similarly negative Period>>>



notice the verification for october. and interestingly enough the ensembels are forecasting the NAO to tank after the first of december again.

The ENSO.

2001-02 was an ENSO neutral west QBO winter following a La Nina east winter. from a historical point of view, ENSO Neutral - west winters following a la Nina east winter are normally milder than normal.

this winter will be a neutral (weak El Nino) transitional QBO winter (east to west) following a moderate El Nino west to east QBO. since ENSO neutral winters or weak El nino winters following an El nino year most of the time behave like the El nino before, the same patters a re likely to re-occur. of course other factors though can overcome this, and result in different conditions (as we are seeing in the pacific this fall).

the solar cycle.

probably the nost influential factor here on the 2001-02 winter is the solar cycle. very high solar flux and geomagnetic activity re-developed in late fall 2001 as the sun reached a second maximum. the chemical reactions produced by the effects of the flux activity forced above normal heights in the lower and middle latitudes, while the geomagnetic activity cuased the strengthening of the icelandic low and lowering heights in the arctic. the above normal heights across the tropics and middle latitudes combined with the below normal heights surrounding the pole, caused the jet to strengthen and a zonal flow to develop, lasting much of the winter, virtually without any prolonged break in the pattern.

so while there were other factors influencing the warm winter of 2001-02 it was due mostly to the high solar activity. had that activity not been present, the outcome might have been different. the other factors such as the eastern paciifc signal and the ENSO, just made things worse.

these factores which shaped 2001-02 are much different that what we are dealing with this fall, and some such as the solar factor are not even present, (aside from the slight surge we had a few weeks ago, and at the end of october). so any comparisons to 2001-02 are nearly unrealistic.

I'm not sure but the CDC map link might not be working (they are updating their hardware again, lol.), it worked when i made the map but there have been periods when the composite page went down for prolonged periods of time this afternoon, so im not too sure if its going to work.

[WEATHER53]

Also showing up in last few days are precipitation shield that were forecasted to make it into DC metro instead sliding south. As we discussed in our outlook issued in late Sept we expcect a lot of supressive low movement this year, thru Virginia and North Carolina split between lows moving over or west of applchns, like they have been doing for 6 weeks, and Very little up the coast moves. A cold storm around 11/20 with possible snow for mid atlantic is getting kicked around- I do not see that and think in fact it will be another west of applchns mover, but I am still on for something of real interest, and a rarity for this season I believe, which is coastal action in 11/29-12/2 time frame.

This Friday night-Saturday event seems all over the plce prediction wise as far as location, duration and intensity. We have had two other events in last 30 days that were much more intense that originally thought, will this be the third.

[Guest]

Hey 53 see the Thanksgiving thread! Very good call btw!!!!!Gonna be very intresting out this way for sure!!!!