ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[tolakram]

[northjaxpro]

Hmm.. the windshield wiper effect continues. I am not surprised at all to see GFS shift back west, given the 500 mb analysis I saw from very early Wednesday which showed substantial ridging across the Western and SW Atlantic basin. Hard to see any openings for Erika to turn out to sea within the next 5 days right now.

[tgenius]

That one looks a lot like David in 79.

[ericinmia]

Even with that Ridge... she rides the coast north.... @ 108 hrs

[SouthFLTropics]

With the ridge to the north she may slow down to a crawl while taking the coast.

[gatorcane]

Looks almost identical to the 12Z ECMWF track.

[Hurricaneman]

With the ridge to the north she may slow down to a crawl while taking the coast.

Could even get as far west as Sanford in that run

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[tgenius]

Looks almost identical to the 12Z ECMWF track.

So the million dollar question is does Euro follow GFS in a few hours?

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Again weaker means further west so that is being reflected in this run. I also notice the trough in the Gulf is a tad stronger at 500mb level.

Evening Brian,
looks like a few watch and wait day ahead.

[northjaxpro]

That does remind me of David '79 @ 108 hrs.

[tolakram]

I am literally falling asleep, going to call it a night.

[tolakram]

West and weaker, track very similar to the euro. IMO

link: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=pres_wind&runtime=2015082700&fh=120&xpos=0&ypos=300

[northjaxpro]

With the ridge to the north she may slow down to a crawl while taking the coast.

That is a plausible scenario looking at this particular run if it comes close to fruition.. The storm would be trapped , no where to go with the blocking ridge in place.

[ericinmia]

Erika likes Disney @ 114 hrs

[blp]

Again weaker means further west so that is being reflected in this run. I also notice the trough in the Gulf is a tad stronger at 500mb level.

Evening Brian,
looks like a few watch and wait day ahead.

Yep too many variables in play yet that have to play out to determine the landfall.

The ridge does look stronger but I ask the question if the storm was stronger would the outcome still be different.

[USTropics]

Looks almost identical to the 12Z ECMWF track.

Within miles of each other at the same timeframe:

00z GFS:


12z ECMWF:

[ericinmia]

126 hrs.... moving slowly, and strengthening!

[northjaxpro]

Erika likes Disney @ 114 hrs

Looks more like Vero Beach vicinity on that run.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

I thought the earlier run of the Euro had Erica at least 100 miles off the coast?

[NDG]

Even with that Ridge... she rides the coast north.... @ 108 hrs

Your image shows ridging at the surface not the mid levels, you need to look at the 500mb maps.