ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

GFDL is out there on its own as the left outlier. Sure makes for scary entertainment though.

[ConvergenceZone]

Am I the only one that thinks this run is not a fluke?

If timed as such, it is very reasonable. However, timing will be important at several steps along the way. Also the strength of the initial low will be key (otherwise it gets bogged down in Central America like, say, Ida 2009).

It seems 65°W and 85°W are the goalposts right now.

I agree with Crazy. And everything would have to line up perfectly from a timing perspective in order for the GFS scenario to verify, and that's highly doubtful to happen

[jason1912]

Am I the only one that thinks this run is not a fluke?

I hope so too, but I dont want to imagine what Staten Island would endure... If this occurred

My god I remember the damage done there from Sandy.. Just wild

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Not NW or north. A true WNW at 114, 120 and 126 hours.

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF straight north along 74 west from hour 120 to 126...shoots the gap between Cuba and Haiti.

[tolakram]

Am I the only one that thinks this run is not a fluke?

What part of the run? past 120 hours or a little longer there is very little chance of verification. It may have the general pattern correct, close to the east coast, but it might have also made a mistake back at 100 hours that will move the track hundreds of miles. This is why you see so many people get upset when folks react to 220 hour plots as if there's a chance of it happening. At that extended range only upper air patterns can be looked at in my opinion, not small features like a storm. Heck, the GFS didn't even have the cutoff low in the Ohio valley 2 days ago.

[CrazyC83]

As for the central and western Gulf, how does it get there? Wouldn't it make landfall in central America before it can make the turn if it is that far west? What could turn it west a second time with a trough approaching?

[meriland23]

HWRF has it skirting up similar to GFS at 126hrs & 959mb

[SouthFLTropics]

Looking at the 500MB chart on the HWRF I don't think it gets too much farther north after 126 hours without bending back to the NW. Further runs will be very interesting.

[stormreader]

Not NW or north. A true WNW at 114, 120 and 126 hours.

WNW you say?!

[gatorcane]

18Z GFDL with a CAT 5 SW of Jamaica (Jamaica is upper-right side of screen) turning NW/N. Looks like a buzzsaw

https://s11.postimg.org/dwigt3wqb/gfdl_ ... 7_L_22.png

Not NW or north. A true WNW at 114, 120 and 126 hours.

WNW you say?!

Yes WNW not NW or N, my mistake. It is hard to tell with the GFDL close-up but GFDL-P animation below:

[Ken711]

Because it's complete nonsense, almost like the GFS wants to win a popularity contest by showing something dramatic out in fantasy land. The GFS skill at that range is a little better than a blindfolded kid throwing darts at a map.

Nonetheless, it's the trend westward that shouldn't be ignored. First, the Euro showing it dangerously close to Miami, and now this? I'd say we better start paying attention just in case

Though a ~920 mb hurricane hitting near OBX/VA Beach is quite crazy. It's just another model run without a closed center to initialize far out in time. The mesoscale/hurricane models especially have trouble interpreting the disturbance and nearby conditions of our ocean/atmosphere without this feat accomplished yet. Remember the HWRF with Hermine? It did fairly well, once it was a TD/TS that is.

I've had a feeling a NC/VA border hit since the beginning.

Disclaimer:
My posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be treated as such. They are of my opinion and current knowledge and should NOT be used as an official forecast. For official information, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

[TheStormExpert]

HWRF straight north along 74 west from hour 120 to 126...shoots the gap between Cuba and Haiti.

Basically a carbon copy of the 18z GFS.

[stormreader]

Might sound funny, but what with the model spread and the large shifts we've already seen, I just think that the Northern Gulf Coast really has to keep an eye on this.

[meriland23]

Just, really digging that narrow space between Cuba and Haiti eh?

[Recurve]

That GFDL run is interesting, when was the last time that strong a storm went right across the Caribbean? Gilbert ran from Antilles to Central America in early September like that, and I remember there was one other year (which one?) when several majors stayed south, but nothing since then.

[GeneratorPower]

Might sound funny, but what with the model spread and the large shifts we've already seen, I just think that the Northern Gulf Coast really has to keep an eye on this.

Northern Gulf Coast definitely should watch. I am sticking with Yucatán Channel into the Gulf of Mexico. Just an amateur opinion.

[wxman57]

I'm still thinking east of Florida, to possibly include the east coast of Florida. 12Z EC ensembles had a bit of a shift eastward.

[CrazyC83]

That GFDL run is interesting, when was the last time that strong a storm went right across the Caribbean? Gilbert ran from Antilles to Central America in early September like that, and I remember there was one other year (which one?) when several majors stayed south, but nothing since then.

Dean and Felix in 2007 did just those. But such a track is unlikely into October.

[stormlover2013]

10 days out we shall see