ATL: IAN - Models

[Michele B]

12z EPS
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1573391408882409472?s=20&t=lNUTjzPyho-PLvK2beDlag

Don't know how many know....Tampa has a "myth" that says Tampa doesn't get many hurricanes. That they go away from it.

Further, Sarasota claims it is PROTECTED from hurricanes - for some unknown (to me) reason.

I guess we're about to see....

[Nimbus]

https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/1573441399038660614

This is why the GFS is further west than the Euro, which is rare. I believe that the same bias it showed with storms like IRMA could be at play here. The GFS progresses troughs much quicker than the Euro does, but in this case, that results in the system being "left behind," which untimely results in a much more western outcome. Same biases are in play with both models as usual it seems.

Exactly:
If you compare the 168 hour 12z Euro run frame from yesterday with the 144 hour 12Z Euro run frame today there is the 1033 mb moving east over Ohio but the trough off the east coast is closing off in todays 12Z Euro.

The possibility that this is a trend that will continue because the Euro needs to play catch up with the trough evolution should be considered.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS simulated IR loop:

[Abdullah]

18Z GFS simulated IR loop:

https://i.postimg.cc/1zQBZj7q/gfs-ir-watl-fh1-115.gif

Daaaang that's crazy
Do any other models have this feature?

[Iceresistance]

18Z GFS simulated IR loop:

https://i.postimg.cc/1zQBZj7q/gfs-ir-watl-fh1-115.gif

Daaaang that's crazy
Do any other models have this feature?

The HWRF does on TT.

[pcolaman]

GFS won't correct until it figures out the 500mb pattern. Right now it sees 9 left behind and crawling north. Pretty much same as last run, a tad left, but for this far our hardly any significant change from the 12Z in my opinion.

65 miles to the west is a good bit . What's concerning is the pressure drop.

[somethingfunny]

12z EPS
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1573391408882409472?s=20&t=lNUTjzPyho-PLvK2beDlag

Don't know how many know....Tampa has a "myth" that says Tampa doesn't get many hurricanes. That they go away from it.

Further, Sarasota claims it is PROTECTED from hurricanes - for some unknown (to me) reason.

I guess we're about to see....

Well, at least one of those two places won't get a direct hit so maybe there's something to it

[Abdullah]

18Z HWRF is trending slower and farther east

[Keldeo1997]

I'm not liking how the HWRF is trying to from a Pinhole here

[johngaltfla]

12z EPS
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1573391408882409472?s=20&t=lNUTjzPyho-PLvK2beDlag

Don't know how many know....Tampa has a "myth" that says Tampa doesn't get many hurricanes. That they go away from it.

Further, Sarasota claims it is PROTECTED from hurricanes - for some unknown (to me) reason.

I guess we're about to see....

The Sarasota "theory" relates to the burial mounds of a powerful Indian chieftain and his tribe.

As long as it is undisturbed, we should be immune.

However, Donna and Irma would like to chime in.

[aspen]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1022688973581201488/1023013203573223445/unknown.png

I'm not liking how the HWRF is trying to from a Pinhole here

Look at all those bands, though. The HWRF is slow to intensify Ian because it has a very messy structure with so many competing bands and difficulty getting a solid eyewall. If this verifies, Ian may not bomb out into a Cat 4+ as many have feared.

[ConvergenceZone]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1022688973581201488/1023013203573223445/unknown.png

I'm not liking how the HWRF is trying to from a Pinhole here

Look at all those bands, though. The HWRF is slow to intensify Ian because it has a very messy structure with so many competing bands and difficulty getting a solid eyewall. If this verifies, Ian may not bomb out into a Cat 4+ as many have feared.

I know HWRF has been good when it comes to strength, but have there also been times where it has been way off in terms of strength?

[ronjon]

I don't buy the GFS. Its had a west bias all season.

Until the Euro makes a big move I ain't buying it.

There isn't a big move coming from South to North. It's a minimal longitude move from Ft. Myers to Tampa when traversing that way. Trust me, I know. I was in the path of Charley until a minimal jog occured

I hear ya brother. Watched and bit my nails with Charlie and Irma but the magical tampa deflector shield popped up at the last minute.

[caneman]

12z EPS
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1573391408882409472?s=20&t=lNUTjzPyho-PLvK2beDlag

Don't know how many know....Tampa has a "myth" that says Tampa doesn't get many hurricanes. That they go away from it.

Further, Sarasota claims it is PROTECTED from hurricanes - for some unknown (to me) reason.

I guess we're about to see....

The Sarasota "theory" relates to the burial mounds of a power Indian chieftain and his tribe.

As long as it is undisturbed, we should be immune.

However, Donna and Irma would like to chime in.

Yep the same for Pinellas county, we have Indian burial grounds in Safety Harbor and Indian Rocks Beach. The theory being that they selected this land because they believe it protected them from storms.

[caneman]

I don't buy the GFS. Its had a west bias all season.

Until the Euro makes a big move I ain't buying it.

There isn't a big move coming from South to North. It's a minimal longitude move from Ft. Myers to Tampa when traversing that way. Trust me, I know. I was in the path of Charley until a minimal jog occured

I hear ya brother. Watched and bit my nails with Charlie and Irma but the magical tampa deflector shield popped up at the last minute.

I did get hammered hard though brother on Indian Rocks beach with Irma. Winds measured up to 100 mph. Lost lots of trees, fencing and no power for 5 or 6 days. My neighbor came through with a front loader to clear the streets. We alway get it bad near the beach. Same with Frances and Jeanne. It was weird, I drove to Tampa after Irma and didn't see nearly as much damage

[OuterBanker]

Is Wxman leaning toward GFS or Euro?

[SouthFLTropics]

Is Wxman leaning toward GFS or Euro?

So far he's been all in on the Euro... Said the GFS is out to lunch.

[Abdullah]

A few months back I saw this website (I'm pretty sure from this forum somewhere) that showed a list of all the model runs and their specific times along with whether they'd started, were initializing, and so on and so forth. It was just a white background, times new roman font text, and was very expansive. Does anyone on here know of this website?

[otowntiger]

18Z HWRF is trending slower and farther east

Looks like it actually ends up further west to me, or at the very least where it was before.

[otowntiger]

A few months back I saw this website (I'm pretty sure from this forum somewhere) that showed a list of all the model runs and their specific times along with whether they'd started, were initializing, and so on and so forth. It was just a white background, times new roman font text, and was very expansive. Does anyone on here know of this website?

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