Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Portastorm]

aggiecutter, was snow in your forecast yesterday or last night?

Thanks for sharing the photo. You're one of the prize-winners today!

[Yukon Cornelius]

Hope this pic works. This was taken this morning at around 8:45

[Ntxw]

Euro has a mammoth 1059mb high in Western Canada in about 48hrs and sinks to Montana at 1056mb in 72 yet its trying to hold up the cold air. I smell bust left and right with temperatures, the NAM looks better to me at the surface drilling the dense air mass. Im with wxman57 the front will be down to the Yucatan not stop at Brownsville.

[Ntxw]

And then the Euro now sees another arctic blast to follow with another big high. #alaskanridge

[ronyan]

And then the Euro now sees another arctic blast to follow with another big high. #alaskanridge

Noticed that, it has a ~1050mb high entering Montana on the 4th. The 12z GFS and its parallel run also have this feature on the 4th-5th, bears watching.

[Rgv20]

Euro has a mammoth 1059mb high in Western Canada in about 48hrs and sinks to Montana at 1056mb in 72 yet its trying to hold up the cold air. I smell bust left and right with temperatures, the NAM looks better to me at the surface drilling the dense air mass. Im with wxman57 the front will be down to the Yucatan not stop at Brownsville.

All three global models 12zGFS, GFS Parallel, ECMWF are out to lunch with the Arctic Front...We shall see how much they bust the 2m Temperature forecast.

[TwisterFanatic]

I didn't get anything, but I saw some 4-5 inch pictures up here in Oklahoma. This came outta nowhere.

[northjaxpro]

I know you all have probably analyzed and seen this already, but the GFS 96 hour run is very impressive. 1051 mb Arctic High shown over western Nebraska with the arctic air draining directly down through Texas. You guys are in for a prolonged cold spell from Old Man Winter.

[orangeblood]

Euro has a mammoth 1059mb high in Western Canada in about 48hrs and sinks to Montana at 1056mb in 72 yet its trying to hold up the cold air. I smell bust left and right with temperatures, the NAM looks better to me at the surface drilling the dense air mass. Im with wxman57 the front will be down to the Yucatan not stop at Brownsville.

I've been tracking the source region....it's Siberian Air currently sitting north of Alaska/Near the Arctic Circle (some -25 to -30 F Deg Vodka Air) poised to rush southeast into NW Canada, straight down into the Plains. With plenty of snow cover all the way down into Colorado/Northern Kansas, I don't see a lot of modification and have a hard time believing the temp model output....BIG bust potential

[WacoWx]

About 3" here just south of Shawnee, OK.

[Tireman4]

I am with Ntxw..I am thinking there are going to be some serious busts here. Our local station (KTRK)

as mid 40's for highs...New Years Day

[Portastorm]

Forecast and temp bust today at the PWC. Currently sitting at 42 and NWS said 46-47 by now. Five degree bust. Hmm ... wonder what happens next week.

[TexasF6]

Those poor guys are model hugging until they have to change their forecasts. Whatever happened to the good old fashioned art of making of a forecast based on what you see/have experienced/analogs and not just the models??? There are more busts to come methinks.........Bring on the cold and snow!!!

[KatDaddy]

50F in Conroe and 77F in Pearland. A 27F temp difference across the Houston area. A line of thunderstorms across Houston have intensified some during the past hour but nothing severe.

Its cold up here in Roanoke N of Ft Worth. Currently 37F but no Winter precip though The Winter precip was 2 counties to the NW. I am hoping next week will much more interesting for NTX.

[Ralph's Weather]

I got up to 48 earlier but siren to 43 now. Hopefully everyone is ready for sub freezing highs next week because that high looks very strong. Hong we can get some moisture, but no ice.

[Stormnut]

Are any of the models trending colder yet? What about the crazy Canadian?

[KatDaddy]

A few excepts from this afternoon's TX AFDs

Dallas-Ft Worth AFD:

THE ENERGY OUT
WEST IS STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF CLOSING OFF OVER ARIZONA BY
WEDNESDAY...BUT A LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA
AND INDUCE ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH MODELS DIFFERING SOMEWHAT ON
ENVIRONMENTAL PROFILES...PRECIP TYPES...AND OVERALL TEMPERATURES.
SO CONFIDENCE ON THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF ANY WINTER WEATHER
LATER IN THE WEEK REMAINS LOW...BUT APPEARS SOME CHANCE OF A MIX
WILL BE THERE WITH CHILLY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

San Antonio-Austin AFD:

A THREAT FOR
WINTER TYPE PRECIPITATION EXISTS OVER FAR NORTHERN PARTS AND
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
CURRENTLY...NO ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. WARMER AIR ALOFT
MIXES INTO THE LOWER LEVELS KEEPING THEM ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT MINIMAL DAILY TEMPERATURE RANGES
MID INTO LATE WEEK DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WITH READINGS
MAINLY WELL BELOW AVERAGE. OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...MODELS HAVE
CHANGED WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE FEATURES FOR THIS COMING WEEK.
STAY TUNED FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH
NEW YEARS EVE PLANNING.

[ndale]

When DFW says, " THE ENERGY OUT WEST IS STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF CLOSING OFF OVER ARIZONA BY WEDNESDAY", do they mean they expect the system to stall and not move thru here until the cold air modifys and what signs are they basing that on, the models only. Does anyone have any thoughts on that?

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

38 degrees now in Addison.

[somethingfunny]

:uarrow: When DFW says, " THE ENERGY OUT WEST IS STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF CLOSING OFF OVER ARIZONA BY WEDNESDAY", do they mean they expect the system to stall and not move thru here until the cold air modifys and what signs are they basing that on, the models only. Does anyone have any thoughts on that?

Yes. In an ideal situation for snow, the upper level low doesn't close off until it reaches West Texas.