Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Ralph's Weather]

Texas Tech WRF showing a band of heavy snow moving across DFW with the sounding showing surface temp near 32F. Also, the dry layer was eroded well before this band moves in.

http://www.atmo.ttu.edu/bancell/real_time_WRF/current_run/d02_det_sfc_dbz_f29.png

How does that change to rain later lower rates?

That sounds eerily like February 2010 tbh

It won't change back after it changes.

[Brent]

Texas Tech WRF showing a band of heavy snow moving across DFW with the sounding showing surface temp near 32F. Also, the dry layer was eroded well before this band moves in.

http://www.atmo.ttu.edu/bancell/real_time_WRF/current_run/d02_det_sfc_dbz_f29.png

How does that change to rain later lower rates?

That sounds eerily like February 2010 tbh

It won't change back after it changes.

I know, I'm just saying that's what everyone here basically is predicting

[rwfromkansas]

Delkus just upped DFW snow to 1-2 inches. 3 in spots.

[Ntxw]

Found a little gem digging for some archive maps. January 15-16, 1964. DFW's lesser known footer. Waco got 5-6" out of it. Not saying a foot here but analogous 500mb pattern. Also warmish surface and track of ULL.

[EnnisTx]

Delkus just upped DFW snow to 1-2 inches. 3 in spots.

Then you should expect 6+

[harp]

Found a little gem digging for some archive maps. January 15-16, 1964. DFW's lesser known footer. Waco got 5-6" out of it. Not saying a foot here but analogous 500mb pattern. Also warmish surface and track of ULL.

https://i.imgur.com/PR73C9P.png

https://i.imgur.com/mKBptfp.png

I was a child living in Dallas at the time. I remember it well. We have home movies of it.

[Cerlin]

Just got a notification on my phone. Winter Weather Advisory finally issued for Denton County and probably other counties too.

[Captmorg70]

Just got a notification on my phone. Winter Weather Advisory finally issued for Denton County and probably other counties too.

Looks like Advisories for Denton/Collin/Tarrant/Dallas counties. A few surrounding counties, but not the Red River counties.

Also, the Watches were converted to warnings.

[Brent]

.Winter storm expected across portions of North and Central
Texas on Sunday and into early Monday...

TXZ102-103-118>121-134-100400-
/O.NEW.KFWD.WW.Y.0001.210110T1200Z-210111T1200Z/
Wise-Denton-Tarrant-Dallas-Rockwall-Kaufman-Ellis-
Including the cities of Decatur, Bridgeport, Carrollton, Denton,
Lewisville, Flower Mound, Fort Worth, Arlington, Dallas,
Rockwall, Heath, Terrell, Kaufman, Forney, Waxahachie, Ennis,
and Midlothian
130 PM CST Sat Jan 9 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches
with isolated totals near 3 inches possible.

[rwfromkansas]

Steve McCauley

[bubba hotep]

18z HRRR is nice looking and lingers snow over portions of N. Texas for a long time in association with the upper low.

[cheezyWXguy]

18z HRRR is nice looking and lingers snow over portions of N. Texas for a long time in association with the upper low.

What’s the deal with it switching back to rain for a portion of the event? Is that reasonable?

[Captmorg70]

18z HRRR is nice looking and lingers snow over portions of N. Texas for a long time in association with the upper low.

What’s the deal with it switching back to rain for a portion of the event? Is that reasonable?

It looks like the surface temps are ~ 37-38 degrees when it switches back to rain.

[EnnisTx]

.Winter storm expected across portions of North and Central
Texas on Sunday and into early Monday...

TXZ102-103-118>121-134-100400-
/O.NEW.KFWD.WW.Y.0001.210110T1200Z-210111T1200Z/
Wise-Denton-Tarrant-Dallas-Rockwall-Kaufman-Ellis-
Including the cities of Decatur, Bridgeport, Carrollton, Denton,
Lewisville, Flower Mound, Fort Worth, Arlington, Dallas,
Rockwall, Heath, Terrell, Kaufman, Forney, Waxahachie, Ennis,
and Midlothian
130 PM CST Sat Jan 9 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches
with isolated totals near 3 inches possible.

I'm betting we see some of those purple colors converted to bright pink before it's over.

[rwfromkansas]

18z HRRR is nice looking and lingers snow over portions of N. Texas for a long time in association with the upper low.

What’s the deal with it switching back to rain for a portion of the event? Is that reasonable?

It looks like the surface temps are ~ 37-38 degrees when it switches back to rain.

I thought temps were going to be 32-34 for DFW. That would really limit accumulations if it goes above 35.

[Brent]

18z HRRR is nice looking and lingers snow over portions of N. Texas for a long time in association with the upper low.

What’s the deal with it switching back to rain for a portion of the event? Is that reasonable?

That would annoy me if we get accumulation only to be washed away 30 minutes later

[Cerlin]

What’s the deal with it switching back to rain for a portion of the event? Is that reasonable?

It looks like the surface temps are ~ 37-38 degrees when it switches back to rain.

I thought temps were going to be 32-34 for DFW. That would really limit accumulations if it goes above 35.

With how strong the rates are, there’s no way there’s not thermal cooling. HRRR keeps the temperatures the same despite higher snowfall rates and I really don’t see how temperatures would persist, let alone raise given that.

[cheezyWXguy]

12k nam is pretty great for dfw, with no changeover back to rain

[TropicalTundra]

Can’t remember the last time we had a winter storm warning Thank god it’s on a Sunday, would’ve sucked if this was any weekday lol

[Captmorg70]

What’s the deal with it switching back to rain for a portion of the event? Is that reasonable?

It looks like the surface temps are ~ 37-38 degrees when it switches back to rain.

I thought temps were going to be 32-34 for DFW. That would really limit accumulations if it goes above 35.

I agree with Cerlin that there should be dynamic cooling with the snowfall. Ie I think once it start snowing it shouldn’t switch back over.

Just the HRRR is keeping those surface temps at a spot where cold rain was coming down on that run.