ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Extratropical94]

Even if they upgrade, the system looks sheared and mid-level dry air looks to be a problem as it heads west. Also land interaction is another inhibitor. I am glad the NHC finally mentioned some of the inhibitors in the discussion which I have mentioned are there and would hinder development. The GFS and the Euro keep this weak the next 5 days. The HWRF keeps pushing back its CAT 5 prediction. I wouldn’t expect much from this wave or you may be disappointed. There is a chance that once it passes Florida it may become a hurricane but that is questionable looking at the state of the system and the inhibitors ahead.

How can you still call TS Laura a TW?

Probably because the LLC is still very broad, not well-defined at all, the strongest winds are far away from the center, and the 850mb wind shift was nowhere near the area of lowest SLPs. This thing still has a lot of consolidation to do if it wants to strengthen into a solid TS.

[cycloneye]

13L THIRTEEN 200821 1200 17.0N 59.5W ATL 40 1008


We have Laura.

Bang! lol

About time.

Source?

Best Track:

AL, 13, 2020082112, , BEST, 0, 170N, 595W, 40, 1008, TS

http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime ... /al132020/

[gatorcane]

Even if they upgrade, the system looks sheared and mid-level dry air looks to be a problem as it heads west. Also land interaction is another inhibitor. I am glad the NHC finally mentioned some of the inhibitors in the discussion which I have mentioned are there and would hinder development. The GFS and the Euro keep this weak the next 5 days. The HWRF keeps pushing back its CAT 5 prediction. I wouldn’t expect much from this wave or you may be disappointed. There is a chance that once it passes Florida it may become a hurricane but that is questionable looking at the state of the system and the inhibitors ahead.

How can you still call TS Laura a TW?

I should rephrase yes: I wouldn’t expect much from this TS or you may be disappointed. Looks like a sheared wave to me. Are you looking at the same system I am looking at?

[tolakram]

Bang! lol

About time.

Source?

Best Track:

AL, 13, 2020082112, , BEST, 0, 170N, 595W, 40, 1008, TS

http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime ... /al132020/

We'll see if the NHC uses that to upgrade.

[eastcoastFL]

13L THIRTEEN 200821 1200 17.0N 59.5W ATL 40 1008


We have Laura.

Bang! lol

About time.

Source?

Recon- closed low with TS winds

[aspen]

So TD13 did win the race to Laura. Last night, it was really looking like TD14 would take the title.

Laura is now the earliest 12th named storm on record, beating Luis ‘95 by 8 days.

[eastcoastFL]

Even if they upgrade, the system looks sheared and mid-level dry air looks to be a problem as it heads west. Also land interaction is another inhibitor. I am glad the NHC finally mentioned some of the inhibitors in the discussion which I have mentioned are there and would hinder development. The GFS and the Euro keep this weak the next 5 days. The HWRF keeps pushing back its CAT 5 prediction. I wouldn’t expect much from this wave or you may be disappointed. There is a chance that once it passes Florida it may become a hurricane but that is questionable looking at the state of the system and the inhibitors ahead.

How can you still call TS Laura a TW?

I should rephrase yes: I wouldn’t expect much from this TS or you may be disappointed. Looks like a sheared wave to me.

I’ll definitely give you credit for consistency

[tolakram]

Bang! lol

About time.

Source?

Recon- closed low with TS winds

Way too weak IMO, that's where they dropped but not conclusive. We'll see. Plane going for a double check.

[AutoPenalti]

That didn't seem like the center...

[NDG]

TS Laura looks like a legitimate weak TS this morning, much better presentation than last visible satellite pix yesterday.

[eastcoastFL]

Source?

Recon- closed low with TS winds

Way too weak IMO, that's where they dropped but not conclusive. We'll see. Plane going for a double check.

https://i.imgur.com/lux9F6J.png

Ya I don’t disagree on weakness but definitely an improvement from last nights pass. They’ve found TS winds in a few places and last drop was 34kts north of the center. I wouldn’t argue if they kept it a TD or if they went with Laura. In the end it’s semantics really 35mph vs 39mph.

[gatorcane]

Looking at the wide shot, appears to be headed for land interaction with the Greater Antilles:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

[NDG]

Unflagged TS force winds just north of the LLC, which is diving WSW towards Guadeloupe just like the 06z HWRF forecasted to later reform further north.

125300 1636N 05947W 8452 01587 0114 +214 +112 072012 013 034 004 00

[HurricaneEnzo]

Looks like TD13 will actually end up winning the race to TS. Wasn't looking good yesterday but it appears to be the winner in this tortoise vs tortoise race

[AutoPenalti]

Looking at the wide shot, appears to be headed for land interaction with the Greater Antilles:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

If you're looking at the convective ball, sure. Center is just to the east of that.

[NDG]

Plenty of TS force winds just NW the CoC which seems to be trying to reform further NW.

NOAA2 0213A CYCLONE HDOB 27 20200821
125330 1638N 05948W 8402 01635 0112 +216 +112 054016 017 033 004 00
125400 1639N 05950W 8433 01605 0111 +222 +107 060023 024 035 004 00
125430 1640N 05951W 8433 01602 0111 +226 +102 048028 030 034 004 00
125500 1642N 05953W 8433 01604 0106 +229 +097 048034 035 036 001 00
125530 1643N 05954W 8431 01612 0104 +233 +095 046029 031 036 000 00
125600 1644N 05956W 8416 01622 0105 +233 +095 049024 025 034 001 00
125630 1646N 05957W 8415 01627 0105 +231 +098 057026 028 035 001 00
125700 1647N 05959W 8433 01599 0102 +230 +099 072027 028 036 002 00
125730 1649N 06000W 8433 01604 0105 +229 +099 079027 027 039 003 00
125800 1650N 06002W 8433 01603 0102 +228 +103 083030 032 040 004 00
125830 1651N 06003W 8429 01604 0100 +229 +099 101029 030 041 002 00
125900 1653N 06005W 8421 01606 0096 +233 +094 106025 027 041 003 00
125930 1655N 06006W 8432 01599 0098 +232 +092 104027 029 043 001 00
130000 1656N 06008W 8406 01624 0096 +233 +092 102030 030 041 000 00
130030 1658N 06009W 8430 01603 0098 +233 +090 103030 031 035 000 00
130100 1659N 06011W 8433 01594 0096 +230 +096 109031 032 031 000 00
130130 1701N 06013W 8428 01606 0100 +229 +096 113032 032 029 000 03
130200 1703N 06014W 8414 01624 0101 +230 +094 114033 034 027 000 00
130230 1704N 06016W 8422 01611 0098 +231 +093 114033 033 029 000 03
130300 1706N 06017W 8414 01622 0102 +228 +095 112035 035 030 000 00

[SFLcane]

TS with 45 mph!!

[eastcoastFL]

Looking at the wide shot, appears to be headed for land interaction with the Greater Antilles:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

Ya the HWRF which has the best handle on this system so far shows the low moving over one of the islands in about 9 hours

[tolakram]

mmmmm maybe a bit better defined.

[eastcoastFL]

TS with 45 mph!!

It’s official. The euro and gfs are broken at the moment. Great job by the nhc so far. Nothing can replace experienced meteorologists.