Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Ntxw]

+PNA will happen after Christmas, it's the Aleutian low pattern. That's the promise for SSW and continue -AO in Jan and Feb. But the question is are the models rushing it? La Ninas do not favor +PNA.

But at the least the models have well underestimated the -NAO/-AO and EPO blocks in the long term. And yes the trend is starting to flatten the PNA ridge.

[Cpv17]

+PNA will happen after Christmas, it's the Aleutian low pattern. That's the promise for SSW and continue -AO in Jan and Feb. But the question is are the models rushing it? La Ninas do not favor +PNA.

But at the least the models have well underestimated the -NAO/-AO and EPO blocks in the long term. And yes the trend is starting to flatten the PNA ridge.

https://i.imgur.com/0jpOsb3.gif

Wouldn’t this set us up for a cold February?

[ThunderSleetDreams]

+PNA will happen after Christmas, it's the Aleutian low pattern. That's the promise for SSW and continue -AO in Jan and Feb. But the question is are the models rushing it? La Ninas do not favor +PNA.

But at the least the models have well underestimated the -NAO/-AO and EPO blocks in the long term. And yes the trend is starting to flatten the PNA ridge.

https://i.imgur.com/0jpOsb3.gif

Wouldn’t this set us up for a cold February?

End of January and most of February

[Iceresistance]

+PNA will happen after Christmas, it's the Aleutian low pattern. That's the promise for SSW and continue -AO in Jan and Feb. But the question is are the models rushing it? La Ninas do not favor +PNA.

But at the least the models have well underestimated the -NAO/-AO and EPO blocks in the long term. And yes the trend is starting to flatten the PNA ridge.

https://i.imgur.com/0jpOsb3.gif

Wouldn’t this set us up for a cold February?

End of January and most of February

My prediction is that in February, the "Big One" will be launched towards here.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[PTrackerLA]

Not to derail the discussion, but I witnessed my first tornado EVER today. My work is not far from where the New Iberia, LA tornado was heading and I was able to make visual confirmation from an overpass just 2 minutes after it crossed the highway. I've never "chased" a tornado in my life as large tornadoes aren't overly common here but something compelled me to jump in the car as soon as the warning went out. Thankfully there were no significant injuries and all family and friends are safe but I observed at least EF2 damage in town. Now i just watched a large tornado move through metro New Orleans...crazy day. Check out this incredible footage as it was captured live in New Iberia by a tower cam:

 https://twitter.com/LanceBlockerWx/status/1603072513613131776




Now back to winter, the 18z GFS is trending the right direction again! Looks like roughly 72 hours of freezing temps down to I-10.

[Ntxw]

+PNA will happen after Christmas, it's the Aleutian low pattern. That's the promise for SSW and continue -AO in Jan and Feb. But the question is are the models rushing it? La Ninas do not favor +PNA.

But at the least the models have well underestimated the -NAO/-AO and EPO blocks in the long term. And yes the trend is starting to flatten the PNA ridge.

https://i.imgur.com/0jpOsb3.gif

Wouldn’t this set us up for a cold February?

End of January and most of February

Yeah, the thing with El Nino patterns (el nino in general) is +PNA sends cool air down, with a STJ it's beneficial with the right timing for snow. But not a great pattern for extreme cold since Canada warms up.

Aleutian low sends heat flux up into the Arctic and reinfornces -AO that further attacks the Strat PV. More -AO late winter.

[Quixotic]

The press has started. I’d rather have a winter of off and on winter precip than a week long cold blast. The blocking at high latitudes has predicted cold. 20 degree lows or 0 doesn’t matter. We are going to be “cold enough”.

[orangeblood]

18z GEFS includes something I’ve personally never seen before…check out P10 on the Ensemble Suite, goes apocalyptic for DFW in week 2

[Itryatgolf]

It's interesting that precipitation disappears when it gets colder

[Itryatgolf]

+PNA will happen after Christmas, it's the Aleutian low pattern. That's the promise for SSW and continue -AO in Jan and Feb. But the question is are the models rushing it? La Ninas do not favor +PNA.

But at the least the models have well underestimated the -NAO/-AO and EPO blocks in the long term. And yes the trend is starting to flatten the PNA ridge.


https://i.imgur.com/0jpOsb3.gif

There is a guy from North Carolina who said today the impressive +EAMT will reinforce the +PNA soon to develop for a while and I think that's a dry pattern

[gpsnowman]

18z GEFS includes something I’ve personally never seen before…check out P10 on the Ensemble Suite, goes apocalyptic for DFW in week 2


https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/gfs-ensemble-all/KDFW/indiv_tmp_min/1671040800/1671040800-qQ7DOogrgqs.png

Hey orangblood, can you explain what that means? I'm unfamiliar with those numbers.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

+PNA will happen after Christmas, it's the Aleutian low pattern. That's the promise for SSW and continue -AO in Jan and Feb. But the question is are the models rushing it? La Ninas do not favor +PNA.

But at the least the models have well underestimated the -NAO/-AO and EPO blocks in the long term. And yes the trend is starting to flatten the PNA ridge.


https://i.imgur.com/0jpOsb3.gif

There is a guy from North Carolina who said today the impressive +EAMT will reinforce the +PNA soon to develop for a while and I think that's a dry pattern

That timeframe is after Christmas IMO.

And depends on the strength of the +PNA. A 1-1.5 sigma or less can keep us wet with an active STJ. When you get stronger than that, yes, we can go dry.

[Ralph's Weather]

18z GEFS includes something I’ve personally never seen before…check out P10 on the Ensemble Suite, goes apocalyptic for DFW in week 2


https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/gfs-ensemble-all/KDFW/indiv_tmp_min/1671040800/1671040800-qQ7DOogrgqs.png

That is wild. The fact that sub zero highs are almost equal chances as 60 degrees is wild.

[Cpv17]

18z GEFS includes something I’ve personally never seen before…check out P10 on the Ensemble Suite, goes apocalyptic for DFW in week 2


https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/gfs-ensemble-all/KDFW/indiv_tmp_min/1671040800/1671040800-qQ7DOogrgqs.png

That’s insane!!

[orangeblood]

18z GEFS includes something I’ve personally never seen before…check out P10 on the Ensemble Suite, goes apocalyptic for DFW in week 2


https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/gfs-ensemble-all/KDFW/indiv_tmp_min/1671040800/1671040800-qQ7DOogrgqs.png

Hey orangblood, can you explain what that means? I'm unfamiliar with those numbers.

They are minimum temperatures during each 6 hr time frame from now thru week 2. One of the members of the GFS ensemble suite is forecasting DFW to barely get above 0 deg F for almost a week straight. Only 1 member and one that probably went off the rails but for any member to depict something like this in day 8-15 is nuts

[Portastorm]

If any of y’all are on Twitter, Philippe Papin (@pppapin) has a great thread about how things are shaping up in the Arctic regions. He explains smaller scale features having large impacts further downstream.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1603215128891359232?s=46&t=Eh0zH2Vh9pOPNSMomFEi9Q

[gpsnowman]

18z GEFS includes something I’ve personally never seen before…check out P10 on the Ensemble Suite, goes apocalyptic for DFW in week 2


https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/gfs-ensemble-all/KDFW/indiv_tmp_min/1671040800/1671040800-qQ7DOogrgqs.png

Hey orangblood, can you explain what that means? I'm unfamiliar with those numbers.

They are minimum temperatures during each 6 hr time frame from now thru week 2. One of the members of the GFS ensemble suite is forecasting DFW to barely get above 0 deg F for almost a week straight. Only 1 member and one that probably went off the rails but for any member to depict something like this in day 8-15 is nuts

Thank you!! I'll take a closer look when I get home from work.

[rwfromkansas]

The conversation seems to be toward this being a shorter cold snap than originally thought with talk of the PNA coming after Christmas instead of the new year etc. Or am I wrong? Does that only impact precip? I thought it would give us some more glancing blows.

[Ntxw]

The conversation seems to be toward this being a shorter cold snap than originally thought with talk of the PNA coming after Christmas instead of the new year etc. Or am I wrong? Does that only impact precip? I thought it would give us some more glancing blows.

When you hear +PNA think of El Nino. Cool to cold, less sunny days but not bitter cold. You need an actual El Nino to make it wet though, a Nina PNA doesn't have a strong STJ.

Past couple of days the models have pushed the ridge into the rockies and east so dry and less cold. But today they have migrated a little more west so more shots of cold air.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

The conversation seems to be toward this being a shorter cold snap than originally thought with talk of the PNA coming after Christmas instead of the new year etc. Or am I wrong? Does that only impact precip? I thought it would give us some more glancing blows.

Not really. We can stay well below normal in a positive state…. That’s more of a function of the AO and EPO. Now extreme cold snap, yeah, you need that neutral or slightly negative PNA to stick.