ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[galaxy401]

Well I just woke up and I didn’t expect to see Milton nearly a Cat 5.

[zal0phus]

Is the Yucatan going to halt intensification? Looks like it'll scrape pretty close.

[LandoWill]

wow they shifted north again and called out the non hurricane models as being not apart of their decision. right? i am in the eye on this new track after it comes through tampa metro

[TomballEd]

Cat 5 forecast. A rare thing.

INIT 07/1500Z 21.7N 91.7W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 21.5N 90.4W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 22.2N 88.3W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 23.6N 86.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 25.5N 84.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 27.7N 82.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 29.2N 80.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 30.8N 71.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/1200Z 31.0N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Approaching the general Tampa area, still a major per NHC.

[FLpanhandle91]

This will be historic pass be the Air Force here. With the drastic warming of the eye, we should see some fairly remarkable FL/SFMR data. I'll go 929 extrap with an SFMR that flirts with 150kt.

[Travorum]

By the way if anyone in Pinellas is thinking or planning on getting sandbags but hasn't yet, act fast. I was at the Dunedin pickup site before they opened and the line was over an hour long.

[NDG]

Glad that at least this forecaster at the NHC mentioned this in their latest discussion:

This forecast is close to a consensus of the latest
GFS, ECMWF and regional hurricane models. Note that this track is
closer to the model fields rather than the model trackers which
appear to be too far south.

[Abdullah]

Will the East Coast be put on Hurricane watch and Tropical Storm watch (for those outside the forecast track) in the next advisory?

[kevin]

Looks like the plane is gonna go for a SW to NE pass. I'll say it's gonna find 928 mb, 155 kt FL, 145 kt SFMR.

[MetroMike]

I cannot believe the Officials in Pinellas Co. have not issued a mandatory evacuation for affected zones as of yet. They see that a direct hit is possible in Tampa Bay metro. This foot dragging will only increase panic by those residents.

[xironman]

Is the Yucatan going to halt intensification? Looks like it'll scrape pretty close.

If there is land interaction it will only make the wind field larger, and the storm still has the loop current in front of it to intensify

[Abdullah]

Milton is comparable in size to peak Andrew right now. Andrew had TS-force winds extending 90 miles away from its center and at the last advisory the NHC said 80 miles radius for Milton.

[Xyls]

I cannot believe the Officials in Pinellas Co. have not issued a mandatory evacuation for affected zones as of yet. They see that a direct hit is possible in Tampa Bay metro. This foot dragging will only increase panic by those residents.

In their defense this not an easy decision to make as we all saw during Rita in Houston in 2005, as the evacuation itself poses it's own risks. However, at this point the decision probably does need to be made and almost certainly will be this afternoon especially as the panic is going to set in after this hits Cat 5.

[drewschmaltz]

Watching this is incredible. Wish there weren't any lives in the way. Yucatan disruption, slow reorganization, and then shear would be quite welcome. Not exactly the forecast, but well within the realm of possibilities. In Orlando, if it's approaching the West Coast of FL as a major, the surge impact is a foregone conclusion. For us more inland, the forecast is quite the nailbiter. There's a big difference between a weakening cat 2/3 60 miles inland and a situation where the shear is less destructive than forecast.

[zal0phus]

Is the Yucatan going to halt intensification? Looks like it'll scrape pretty close.

If there is land interaction it will only make the wind field larger, and the storm still has the loop current in front of it to intensify

Good God I didn't even think about the Loop Current

[GCANE]

IR showing rapid warming of the eye

[hipshot]

I'm noticing that big blob of convection to the NE that is detached from the rest of the storm. Almost Matthew-like.

I wonder if will be absorbed by Milton or just tag along. I might just provide a 1-2 punch with "2" being the real nasty punch!

[decgirl66]

They moved the forecast track pretty far to the north, by twenty-five miles. Now it shows landfall at St. Pete Beach as a Cat 3 just after 8 PM Wednesday.
That would be the worst-case scenario for Tampa Bay.

Correct me if I am wrong, but "landfall" would be when the eye comes ashore? I thought that may be helpful for those who are new to the board, or new to Hurricane living in general.

[TallyTracker]

I’ve been talking to colleagues in Tampa. Some are getting out thankfully. Some are hunkering down but they are outside the surge zones.

For those in the surge zones between Hernando and Lee Counties at least, I’d say plan to get out. If you want to beat the rush, do so today. The surge levels forecast near the center will flood into the second story of many structures. That’s assuming the structure doesn’t collapse.

[kevin]

Some positive pixels in the eye right now on IR.