NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[kevin]

Now she's just showing off. 197 kt at 920 mb, that's probably only about 50 - 70 meters above the surface

[zzzh]

Center dropsonde has 909mb 17kt. I'd say 907mb

[Travorum]

https://i.imgur.com/HPPAcFq.png
This is CRAZY

I'm suddenly very interested in seeing the 18z best track.

[chaser1]

Melissa continues to strengthen. And to the delight of all of us, the next recon penetration of Melissa's eye will be in only 8 hours.

I'll never understand why they send in two planes at the same time yet have 8 hour gaps between center fixes. 8 hours between flights is absurd in a situation like this.

I agree. Seems like a combination of inadequate communication or coordination between NOAA and Air Force, possibly exacerbated by one of NOAA's planes being removed from the schedule due to turbulence related equipment/mechanical/safety concerns?

[sasha_B]

Oddly enough the dropsonde doesn't support much additional deepening the way the extrapolated pressure seemed to. 906 hPa extrap. would constitute continued, fairly rapid deepening, but 909 (+/- 1) indicates pretty much steady-state, in line with the gradual decline in ADT estimates.

[Fancy1002]

If it continues it’s upward pace over the next 12 hours, I’m not sure if it will reach Wilma‘s pressure, but I think it’s possible we might finally see another hurricane that either matches or surpasses Allen’s wind speed in the Atlantic.

[Teban54]

Feedback some the recon team itself seems to indicate that an eyewall merger already took place this morning and that the current structure of Melissa shows no indication of a new EWRC.

Melissa will likely continue intensifying for the time being at its current rate of 2 - 3 mb/hr until an EWRC starts. With about 7 hours until the next center pass this means Melissa could reach 884 - 891 mb within that time span which is possible with the current MPI and definitely supported by its satellite appearance. The main question will be whether Melissa can hold off another EWRC for another 7 hours and whether it'll be a race against the clock. I remember a similar case with Milton with people thinking recon missed its peak due to an EWRC only for the place to measure a sub-900mb pressure. One hour later it was already at 'only' 904 mb though due to the ongoing EWRC so it can be a range against the clock.

Andy Hazelton said there's just enough shear to prevent an outer eyewall from even forming
 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1982843734564950258

One of the few times when shear is actually beneficial for the storm (and not for the mankind)?

[aspen]

Now she's just showing off. 197 kt at 920 mb, that's probably only about 50 - 70 meters above the surface

https://i.imgur.com/GHwO5yK.png

These are Dorian-level drops. Might be enough to justify even 155 kt by 2pm or 5pm.

[edu2703]

Honestly, I think Melissa is going to make a run to sub-900.

[Hurricane Mike]

Yeah, I think Melissa is still deepening. Just a violent hurricane. 11am NHC discussion said the NOAA aircraft had to bail out earlier because of the extreme turbulence.

[Tireman4]

Yeah, I think Melissa is still deepening. Just a violent hurricane. 11am NHC discussion said the NOAA aircraft had to bail out earlier because of the extreme turbulence.

I wonder, thinking out loud, when the last time that has happened.

[tolakram]

Saved loop



source (set to skip every other frame): https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-02-200-0-10-2&checked=usint-map&colorbar=undefined

[Beef Stew]

Yeah, I think Melissa is still deepening. Just a violent hurricane. 11am NHC discussion said the NOAA aircraft had to bail out earlier because of the extreme turbulence.

I wonder, thinking out loud, when the last time that has happened.

I don’t think it caused them to leave, but I remember recon got hit with some crazy turbulence (that I believe caused some damage) in Ian.

[kevin]

The latest dropsonde supports 907 mb. Conversion factors from instantaneous FL winds to surface wind are 0.9, 0.8, and 0.75 for 700mb, 850mb and 925mb, respectively. As such, the different measurements from the plane and dropsonde support 145kt, 145 kt, and 148 kt respectively. 907mb/145kt seems like the safest best, but with the 201 kt dropsonde earlier a case could also be made for 150 kt.

[eastcoastFL]

I don't follow the tropics much, but this one is a monster. What are the chances of it clipping the far SW side of the island? It seems to still be mostly going west. No real north turn yet, and each advisory just "moves" the turn just a little bit west. Much further west and it will be wrong again...

Its heading just a tad north of due west. Forward speed has decreased which typically signals that it's beginning to make its turn so I'd bet on it sticking pretty close to the current NHC track. Plus once the trough gets a hold of it, the storm will get pulled to the NE pretty quick.

[zzzh]

Now she's just showing off. 197 kt at 920 mb, that's probably only about 50 - 70 meters above the surface

https://i.imgur.com/GHwO5yK.png

These are Dorian-level drops. Might be enough to justify even 155 kt by 2pm or 5pm.

Stronger than Dorian. Dorian only had mean 150m wind of 177kt. Melissa has 185kt In fact Melissa is the strongest in terms of WL150.

[tolakram]

Reminder, this is the NHC forecast and the one everyone should be paying attention too. The track is pretty much set except for perhaps a few miles left or right. Now is not the time to post, even joking, that this might miss the Jamaica.

[tolakram]

Link: https://youtube.com/watch?v=avcz3q8uAgk

[zzzh]

 https://x.com/DerekOrtt/status/1982847789164810255

[Ubuntwo]

The latest dropsonde supports 907 mb. Conversion factors from instantaneous FL winds to surface wind are 0.9, 0.8, and 0.75 for 700mb, 850mb and 925mb, respectively. As such, the different measurements from the plane and dropsonde support 145kt, 145 kt, and 148 kt respectively. 907mb/145kt seems like the safest best, but with the 201 kt dropsonde earlier a case could also be made for 150 kt.

The most recent eyewall dropsonde actually directly supports 155kt, reduced.