NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[rwfromkansas]

I don't follow the tropics much, but this one is a monster. What are the chances of it clipping the far SW side of the island? It seems to still be mostly going west. No real north turn yet, and each advisory just "moves" the turn just a little bit west. Much further west and it will be wrong again...

[michelinj]

Given the current plane took off from Curacao, could we get one more pass in on it's way back south? Or will it just land wherever is closest to it's current position?

[Ubuntwo]

Melissa continues to strengthen. And to the delight of all of us, the next recon penetration of Melissa's eye will be in only 8 hours.

The current flight has a 17:30z fix requirement, so they're good for another pass. The next fix requirement is 23:30z. That's still a 6 hour gap but not quite as bad.

[mrbagyo]

Given the current plane took off from Curacao, could we get one more pass in on it's way back south? Or will it just land wherever is closest to it's current position?

looks like the AF plane made a turn inside the eye and went north then west. Might go for one last NW-SE pass before heading home to Curacao

[kevin]

Feedback some the recon team itself seems to indicate that an eyewall merger already took place this morning and that the current structure of Melissa shows no indication of a new EWRC.

Melissa will likely continue intensifying for the time being at its current rate of 2 - 3 mb/hr until an EWRC starts. With about 7 hours until the next center pass this means Melissa could reach 884 - 891 mb within that time span which is possible with the current MPI and definitely supported by its satellite appearance. The main question will be whether Melissa can hold off another EWRC for another 7 hours and whether it'll be a race against the clock. I remember a similar case with Milton with people thinking recon missed its peak due to an EWRC only for the place to measure a sub-900mb pressure. One hour later it was already at 'only' 904 mb though due to the ongoing EWRC so it can be a range against the clock.

[zzzh]

This is CRAZY

[Fancy1002]

Based on recon, Melissa is already as strong or stronger than Katrina at her peak, and she still has excellent conditions over the next 18 to 24 hours to strengthen even more. The only thing that can stop her now is an eyewall replacement cycle.

[Iceresistance]

Feedback some the recon team itself seems to indicate that an eyewall merger already took place this morning and that the current structure of Melissa shows no indication of a new EWRC.

Melissa will likely continue intensifying for the time being at its current rate of 2 - 3 mb/hr until an EWRC starts. With about 7 hours until the next center pass this means Melissa could reach 884 - 891 mb within that time span which is possible with the current MPI and definitely supported by its satellite appearance. The main question will be whether Melissa can hold off another EWRC for another 7 hours and whether it'll be a race against the clock. I remember a similar case with Milton with people thinking recon missed its peak due to an EWRC only for the place to measure a sub-900mb pressure. One hour later it was already at 'only' 904 mb though due to the ongoing EWRC so it can be a range against the clock.

Andy Hazelton said there's just enough shear to prevent an outer eyewall from even forming
 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1982843734564950258

[kevin]

Now she's just showing off. 197 kt at 920 mb, that's probably only about 50 - 70 meters above the surface

[zzzh]

Center dropsonde has 909mb 17kt. I'd say 907mb

[Travorum]

https://i.imgur.com/HPPAcFq.png
This is CRAZY

I'm suddenly very interested in seeing the 18z best track.

[chaser1]

Melissa continues to strengthen. And to the delight of all of us, the next recon penetration of Melissa's eye will be in only 8 hours.

I'll never understand why they send in two planes at the same time yet have 8 hour gaps between center fixes. 8 hours between flights is absurd in a situation like this.

I agree. Seems like a combination of inadequate communication or coordination between NOAA and Air Force, possibly exacerbated by one of NOAA's planes being removed from the schedule due to turbulence related equipment/mechanical/safety concerns?

[sasha_B]

Oddly enough the dropsonde doesn't support much additional deepening the way the extrapolated pressure seemed to. 906 hPa extrap. would constitute continued, fairly rapid deepening, but 909 (+/- 1) indicates pretty much steady-state, in line with the gradual decline in ADT estimates.

[Fancy1002]

If it continues it’s upward pace over the next 12 hours, I’m not sure if it will reach Wilma‘s pressure, but I think it’s possible we might finally see another hurricane that either matches or surpasses Allen’s wind speed in the Atlantic.

[Teban54]

Feedback some the recon team itself seems to indicate that an eyewall merger already took place this morning and that the current structure of Melissa shows no indication of a new EWRC.

Melissa will likely continue intensifying for the time being at its current rate of 2 - 3 mb/hr until an EWRC starts. With about 7 hours until the next center pass this means Melissa could reach 884 - 891 mb within that time span which is possible with the current MPI and definitely supported by its satellite appearance. The main question will be whether Melissa can hold off another EWRC for another 7 hours and whether it'll be a race against the clock. I remember a similar case with Milton with people thinking recon missed its peak due to an EWRC only for the place to measure a sub-900mb pressure. One hour later it was already at 'only' 904 mb though due to the ongoing EWRC so it can be a range against the clock.

Andy Hazelton said there's just enough shear to prevent an outer eyewall from even forming
 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1982843734564950258

One of the few times when shear is actually beneficial for the storm (and not for the mankind)?

[aspen]

Now she's just showing off. 197 kt at 920 mb, that's probably only about 50 - 70 meters above the surface

https://i.imgur.com/GHwO5yK.png

These are Dorian-level drops. Might be enough to justify even 155 kt by 2pm or 5pm.

[edu2703]

Honestly, I think Melissa is going to make a run to sub-900.

[Hurricane Mike]

Yeah, I think Melissa is still deepening. Just a violent hurricane. 11am NHC discussion said the NOAA aircraft had to bail out earlier because of the extreme turbulence.

[Tireman4]

Yeah, I think Melissa is still deepening. Just a violent hurricane. 11am NHC discussion said the NOAA aircraft had to bail out earlier because of the extreme turbulence.

I wonder, thinking out loud, when the last time that has happened.

[tolakram]

Saved loop



source (set to skip every other frame): https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-02-200-0-10-2&checked=usint-map&colorbar=undefined