Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[Brent]

When will we have all the midnight models in? are they already run? Does someone have a good graphic of the spread?

Most of them are out... the globals will be awhile.

From the last page:

http://img436.imageshack.us/img436/3626/al2420052na.jpg

[CronkPSU]

oh

now that i see this in the discussion and have seen several references to it re:Hazel and stuff

what do they mean by phasing?

[Brent]

oh

now that i see this in the discussion and have seen several references to it re:Hazel and stuff

what do they mean by phasing?

Phasing=MASSIVE storm. It essentially merges with the trough and creates a powerful extratropical(probably) storm.

[THead]

Windfield has really expanded, TS force 230 miles out from the center........ And hurricane force out 70 miles.

[krysof]

oh

now that i see this in the discussion and have seen several references to it re:Hazel and stuff

what do they mean by phasing?

Phasing=MASSIVE storm. It essentially merges with the trough and creates a powerful extratropical(probably) storm.

Such a massive storm could have hurricane force winds for the entire northeast coast, and horrible flooding even if it moves rapidly, storm surge would also be a problem.

[CronkPSU]

oh

now that i see this in the discussion and have seen several references to it re:Hazel and stuff

what do they mean by phasing?

Phasing=MASSIVE storm. It essentially merges with the trough and creates a powerful extratropical(probably) storm.

excuse my newbieness...i know people probably cringe by me saying this....like the perfect storm?

[Brent]

oh

now that i see this in the discussion and have seen several references to it re:Hazel and stuff

what do they mean by phasing?

Phasing=MASSIVE storm. It essentially merges with the trough and creates a powerful extratropical(probably) storm.

excuse my newbieness...i know people probably cringe by me saying this....like the perfect storm?

Similar.

I'm trying to get some info on it right now.

[Brent]

Here's Hazel:





Just merged.



Phased.

[CronkPSU]

whoa...thanks brent

that would really be scary with a system with such power as this

[6SpeedTA95]

hmmm the orlando CBS weatherman, TOm Sorrells (a very nice man, member of the Y i work at) said it will only be a cat 1 at landfall, is that right?

Whats that guy smoking?

That doesnt' seem too far fetched. Have you seen the SST and TCHP for the area around the florida peninsula? The far southern tip could see a major hurricane cat3 or so. but really the more north you get the environment gets less friendly and there's significant shear forcasted starting friday night into saturday morning.

[THead]

hmmm the orlando CBS weatherman, TOm Sorrells (a very nice man, member of the Y i work at) said it will only be a cat 1 at landfall, is that right?

Whats that guy smoking?

That doesnt' seem too far fetched. Have you seen the SST and TCHP for the area around the florida peninsula? The far southern tip could see a major hurricane cat3 or so. but really the more north you get the environment gets less friendly and there's significant shear forcasted starting friday night into saturday morning.

I agree its going to weaken, only thing though is its going to be moving right along. If it was moving slower would have more of a chance to weaken.

[n o o d l z]

hmmm the orlando CBS weatherman, TOm Sorrells (a very nice man, member of the Y i work at) said it will only be a cat 1 at landfall, is that right?

Whats that guy smoking?

That doesnt' seem too far fetched. Have you seen the SST and TCHP for the area around the florida peninsula? The far southern tip could see a major hurricane cat3 or so. but really the more north you get the environment gets less friendly and there's significant shear forcasted starting friday night into saturday morning.

I agree, I think it will make landfall as a Cat 2 or 3, but a cat 1 is much more viable than people saying its going to make landfall as a 4/5

[mtm4319]

Here's Hazel:





Just merged.



Phased.

As a comparison, Hazel moved 1107 miles in 24 hours through the eastern US and Canada -- an average speed of 46.1 mph over a 24-hour period. That's even faster than the '38 cane.

[jkt21787]

I don't want to alarm everybody and I certainly don't want to downplay the situation for FL, but I am really concerned with some of these models and the possibility of a MAJOR Northeast/New England impact. Some of you have mentioned past names, so there is no need to say them again, but folks should be closely monitoring these scenarios and prepare for a POSSIBLE, repeat POSSIBLE impact from Wilma or a by-product of it by early next week.

Given the recent flooding (historic in its own right) across this region, any impact could be quite dangerous. Again, people in the northeast need to monitor all future forecasts from your local NWS and NHC.

[THead]

I don't want to alarm everybody and I certainly don't want to downplay the situation for FL, but I am really concerned with some of these models and the possibility of a MAJOR Northeast/New England impact. Some of you have mentioned past names, so there is no need to say them again, but folks should be closely monitoring these scenarios and prepare for a POSSIBLE, repeat POSSIBLE impact from Wilma or a by-product of it by early next week.

Given the recent flooding (historic in its own right) across this region, any impact could be quite dangerous. Again, people in the northeast need to monitor all future forecasts from your local NWS and NHC.

Exactly, and there's not going to be much time after it gets by florida, if it does in fact head toward the NE coast, it'll be there in a big hurry.

[THead]

I have a question about wind shear. Lets say the direction of the shear is coming from the west, and the hurricane is moving to the east at the same speed. Does that negate the shear effect or is it more complicated than that, like everything else in meteorology?

[Derek Ortt]

Hurricane Warnings for New England likely will be required when the storm is way down near Key West

[krysof]

Hurricane Warnings for New England likely will be required when the storm is way down near Key West

probably hurricane warnings and watches up and down the northeast

[artist]

this is from Derek's weblog in the Pensacola News Journal regarding the wobble that has been going on -

Wilma appears to have turned more to the NW as expected, though it continues to wobble back and forth. The reason for this is that the inner eye is rotating around an outer eye. One should not pay attention to these wobbles as they are not representative of the circulation as a whole. Instead, focus on the overall storm motion. Wilma should continue turning more to the north and pass just east of the Yucatan, though category 3 conditions are quite possible at Cozemul and Cancun. The eye wall should miss western Cuba as well, though hurricane winds are likely here. South Florida landfall is expected now on Sunday, with a possible Mass landfall on Monday.

Wilma should fluctuate between cat 4 and 5 intensity while in the Caribbean. Any deviation of the track to the west would bring these very severe conditions over the Yucatan and any deviation to the east would bring them over Cuba. Weakening due to increasing wind shear is expected once in the Gulf of Mexico; however, Wilma should remain as a major hurricane until making landfall in Florida. At the possible New England landfall, Wilma likely will be a category 1 hurricane.

Continue to comply with all orders. Residents of the Florida Keys must know that staying behind will likely result in the loss of their lives, if this passes nearby as a major hurricane, as is the forecast.

The greatest impacts to Pensacola appear to be heavy surf and high waves along the beaches.
0 comments

Earlier Model Runs Likely Bad
posted at 6:11 PM

The 12Z GFS, which caused the dramatic shift in the GFDL likely was a bad run. There were no GPS dropsondes used in the initialization of the model, leading the model to guess as to what the atmosphere was doing at the initial time. Therefore, one should not make any decision based upon that model.

Wilma remains as a dangerous category 5 hurricane, though the latest aircraft data indicates that the winds may have decreased to the very strong category 4 level. That said, because the pressure remains at 892mb, once the eye wall replacement cycle is completed, Wilma should quickly regain category 5 status. Once it moves into the Gulf of Mexico, it should weaken, but remain as a dangerous major hurricane until reaching Florida landfall. Any landfall in New England would likely be as a category 1 hurricane.

Not much change to the forecast track thinking. The confusion came from a bad model. The latest GFS appears more realistic in bringing the hurricane across south Florida on Sunday without stalling it over the Yucatan. Latest satellite imagery is suggesting that the track is shifting to the NW from WNW; however, this needs to be monitored for the next few hours to make sure this is not a wobble. A landfall still is not expected over the Yucatan; however, it should move close enough to bring hurricane conditions to the eastern portions, including Cozemul and Cancun.

Continue to comply with all orders given by local emergency management officials. Residents in the Florida Keys who may be reading this, please know that if you stay, you may very well die.

The effects in Pensacola should be limited to high waves on the beaches.
1 comments

http://www.pensacolanewsjournal.com/blo ... ndex.shtml

[6SpeedTA95]

hmmm the orlando CBS weatherman, TOm Sorrells (a very nice man, member of the Y i work at) said it will only be a cat 1 at landfall, is that right?

Whats that guy smoking?

That doesnt' seem too far fetched. Have you seen the SST and TCHP for the area around the florida peninsula? The far southern tip could see a major hurricane cat3 or so. but really the more north you get the environment gets less friendly and there's significant shear forcasted starting friday night into saturday morning.

I agree its going to weaken, only thing though is its going to be moving right along. If it was moving slower would have more of a chance to weaken.

Thats exactly right. If it moves fast teh SST content is plenty high to support a 3 at landfall but it'll really have to haul some ass. If it doddles along at 8 or 10 mph it'll probably make landfall as a 2, if it goes as far north as tampa possibly a 1. I still think it'll make landfall as a 2 but the guy isn't on crack for saying it could make landfall as a 1