Florida Weather

[northjaxpro]

You will begin to see the pendulum turn by Friday I believe within the 7-10 day period Gatorcane. I say by January 8-10 period would be my guess on when the big potential cold spell will come. My gut is telling me this.

I have noticed some lag time with the teleconnections, and I am suspecting that the NAO will experience that. I think we will have a decent tank of the NAO beginning at New Year's Day. We will see!

Hey, I have been on here on this very forum taking the GFS over EURO on several occasions over the years and the GFS hss come away shining bright. Just saying....

[NDG]

For New Year's eve the Euro now has high temps only in the mid 60s across central FL, 70s for S FL.
Down from 70s & 80s from a couple of days ago.
The GFS is now a little warmer than previous runs, fairly close in temps to last night's Euro.
Both forecast temps dropping to the upper 40s to low 50s around midnight across the I-4 corridor, low 60s in SE FL.

Edit: meat to type New Year's Eve, already corrected.

[NDG]

I don't see anything drastically cold record breaking temps coming to FL as the GFS is forecasting through the first if not second week of January with these forecasted teleconnections.

[northjaxpro]

Well, NDG, I am not or have never suggested us seeing record breaking cold.or anything very extreme. However, I am with the GFS in showing that we should get at least substantially colder within the next 10-14 days.

I am simply talking about seeing a couple of potential freezes across my region of North and Northeast Florida and bit below normal down state.

Merry Christmas NDG and to all of my Storm2K Florida neighbors!!

[NDG]

:uarrow: Well, NDG, I am not or have never suggested us seeing record breaking cold.or anything very extreme. However, I am with the GFS in showing that we should get at least substantially colder within the next 10-14 days.

I am simply talking about seeing a couple of potential freezes across my region of North and Northeast Florida and bit below normal down state.

Merry Christmas NDG and to all of my Storm2K Florida neighbors!!

Merry Christmas northjaxpro and to all FL thread members

[psyclone]

I've noticed that recent CPC outlooks show below normal temps in Alaska including today's 6-10 which shows maxed cold anoms..at what is nearly the coldest time of the year. Perhaps this is the first alarm bell of eventual major cold invading the lower 48? We'll just have to wait and see but this is definitely worth keeping an eye on as we head toward the new year. In the meantime we look to most likely average out somewhat above normal for the last week of 2019 and the first week of 2020. And no, there's no snowstorm coming for central and northern Florida...but long live the long range GFS. And of course, Merry Christmas and happy holidays to our unique family of weather geeks.

[gatorcane]

The Euro is going with the stout Caribbean/Bahamas ridge and is totally different than the cold GFS.

We will see how this all plays out. Merry Christmas everyone.

[chaser1]

Merry Christmas all! Latest 0Z Euro moves large trough into E. Conus. Sure, it's still depicting most of Florida still within the warm sector with SW winds in the mid levels but it's really not all that different from the 10 day from the GFS. In fact, i'd say that it appears that they're quite similar but that perhaps the EURO is about 1-2 days slower in bringing cool wx to us. Fact of the matter is that the New Years' cold front that the GFS brings through, is primarily advected by high pressure in the lower levels and will be "cooler" but not showing all that cold down here. Now, on around the 3rd and again on about the 6th-7th..... here is where the GFS is depicting much better upper support for colder air to enter all of Florida. All in all it's still a good 10-13 days away so we'll just have to wait a bit and let details come into better focus.

[boca]

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to fellow weather geeks on the Florida thread and May we get colder weather here soon.

[gatorcane]

The GFS has a massive east coast trough but it seems the time frame keeps slipping. Phantom mega trough?

[TheStormExpert]

The GFS has a massive east coast trough but it seems the time frame keeps slipping. Phantom mega trough?

https://i.postimg.cc/KvxCF8TX/gfs-z500-mslp-us-49.png

Not to mention it’s already backing off on the chilly New Years it’s been advertising.

[psyclone]

Beautiful sunny Christmas day in progress with the cold lurking exactly where it belongs...the long range gfs. Hope everyone is enjoying

[gatorcane]

The SE ridge is quite stubborn in the overnight runs as the models try to bring short waves in to erode the ridge but it is not going down without a fight. The GFS finally erodes it in fantasy land but the Euro not so much.

Is it me or is does this ridge seem to be a semi-permanent feature the last several winters?

[psyclone]

It is and it is terrific. This is the time of the year where temps can run above normal and it's still crazy nice out. Winter is so short in FL that the SE ridge can establish itself and easily just run the clock out.. With few exceptions that has been our lot during the past decade. I don't buy into long range cold because there's so many false alarms...Just like long range hurricane predictions which also tend to be more smoke than fire.

[NDG]

Yesterday was indeed a very nice Christmas day, though it reached 80 in my area it felt really nice with the breeze.
The big news over the next few days is that the Polar Vortex will be very strong over the north pole with no blocking over the high latitudes so expect a mostly zonal flow across the US over the next few days.

[StormingB81]

GFS trying to double down has 20s half way down the state and a freeze way down south.

[gatorcane]

GFS trying to double down has 20s half way down the state and a freeze way down south.

Yep looks rather cold:

[NDG]

GFS trying to double down has 20s half way down the state and a freeze way down south.

The pro-mets are starting to make fun of the GFS's 18z crazy runs, naming it the "Happy Hour Run"
I am calling its 06z runs the "Hot Donuts Hour Run"

[northjaxpro]

Good morning. I am back from Christmas vacation and I see the gang is making good fun of the GFS runs Huh?

Hmm.... OK...

[gatorcane]

Even the Euro has come around to the GFS with a deep trough now at hour 240 over the Central US diving SE. Had it gone out farther, might show a similar solution to the GFS with at least a deep trough over the EC.

By the way the GFS is showing Gulf Stream-effect wintry precip off the SE US coast and NE Florida on that 06Z run!