ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Aric Dunn]

Can someone tell me how often the model data for the tropical distrurbances is released? Is it every 6 hours? 12 hours?
Thanks!

depends on the model. the GFS is every 6 hours same with the gfdl, hfwrf, nogaps... the rest are 12 hours

[canes04]

IMO, I'm sure recon will find Emily (45mph) near 14n 52w.

[ronjon]

Watch the ensembles of GFS and ECM. As I posted earlier this morning, they were both consistent with ridging building back in at 6 days. The operational models are now "catching up" to that pattern. The 12z GFS seems rather slow compared to the GFDL - if the speed is closer to the GFDL, then further adjustments west will occur and puts the FL peninsula into play at some point.

It's interesting how many posters we're jumping on the recurve scenario yesterday. It just goes to show you that these model predictions aren't that good beyond the 5 day time frame unless the pattern is stagnant or blocked.

[Aric Dunn]

it might. but its too small to over take the overall larger circ. if you look at that loop I posted. the southern one is stationary. that means the all of the angular energy is around that one and the eastern one will be thrown eastward around it and likely get squashed as the pressure falls.

Its interesting either way, if the western one is the one to focus on, then thats going to mess up every single model output because they all develop the eastern area...

The interaction of two lows is pretty call, its very rare for it to become quite this obvious outside of the Caribbean...

yeah and its farther south... thats going to shift things west a lot

[ConvergenceZone]

Can someone tell me how often the model data for the tropical distrurbances is released? Is it every 6 hours? 12 hours?
Thanks!

depends on the model. the GFS is every 6 hours same with the gfdl, hfwrf, nogaps... the rest are 12 hours

Okay thanks Aric....I'm glad someone knows...

[WxEnthus]

Strange, it's been over an hour with no transmitted obs.

['CaneFreak]

Strongly agree here...looks like the definite recurve idea just got thrown out the window according to the latest guidance

it might. but its too small to over take the overall larger circ. if you look at that loop I posted. the southern one is stationary. that means the all of the angular energy is around that one and the eastern one will be thrown eastward around it and likely get squashed as the pressure falls.

Its interesting either way, if the western one is the one to focus on, then thats going to mess up every single model output because they all develop the eastern area...

The interaction of two lows is pretty call, its very rare for it to become quite this obvious outside of the Caribbean...

yeah and its farther south... thats going to shift things west a lot

[Aric Dunn]

Watch the ensembles of GFS and ECM. As I posted earlier this morning, they were both consistent with ridging building back in at 6 days. The operational models are now "catching up" to that pattern. The 12z GFS seems rather slow compared to the GFDL - if the speed is closer to the GFDL, then further adjustments west will occur and puts the FL peninsula into play at some point.

It's interesting how many posters we're jumping on the recurve scenario yesterday. It just goes to show you that these model predictions aren't that good beyond the 5 day time frame unless the pattern is stagnant or blocked.

thats true.. except the gfdl, nogaps have been persistent on a florida threat. also the GFS is faster initially and just before recurve if it were to slow down more while in the southern bahamas the weakness would be filled by the ridge that slides of the coast after.

[Bobo2000]

Look at the swirl on the eastern one.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

[jinftl]

If it really books it west it could suffer the same fate as her older sister from 2000, Hurricane Debby,
the storm that was going to threaten south florida as a major hurricane, or so was the forecast,...until she crossed hispanola and battled shear and dissipated from a hurricane to a remnant low.

I actually think the threat is now real...the pattern may yet still recurve but the system is struggling to get going and concentrate into one system, plus the fact that the models are slowly reducing the strength of the trough...

IMO the models may well shift through to a FL landfall and maybe even further west then that yet...

Yep, big change in my thinking today peeps...combined risk due to Hispaniola/E.Cuba landfall threat and slower development.

That is my current thinking too we shall see what happens in the coming days. The longer it takes to consolidate the more west it should go according to the steering charts and should keep a fairly brisk pace.

[capepoint]

it might. but its too small to over take the overall larger circ. if you look at that loop I posted. the southern one is stationary. that means the all of the angular energy is around that one and the eastern one will be thrown eastward around it and likely get squashed as the pressure falls.

Its interesting either way, if the western one is the one to focus on, then thats going to mess up every single model output because they all develop the eastern area...

The interaction of two lows is pretty call, its very rare for it to become quite this obvious outside of the Caribbean...

Agreed!
Rare and very interesting thing going on there for sure. And as far as messing-up the previous models...well, thats why we always take model longer-range track solutions, made before there is even a formed storm, with a grain of salt. All of the arguing of the past couple days...may well go flying out the window. There's a lesson here for the newer people watching.

[ronjon]

12z CMC animated run.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2011073112&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[Aric Dunn]

Trend definitely west and any further west and even though a recurve looks likely it may take place too far to the west to miss FL. Even HWRF went well westward at the 06z run now taking Emily by that time over the western edge of PR.

Needless to say if the trend to turn NW occurs further west causing this storm to traverse Hispaniola the disorganization and rise of pressure could cause it to lose its poleward climb toward the weakness/trough allowing the slightest ridging to turn it back more westward.

Jeanne... scenario..



or even better and a very good analog....Hurricane david..

[Dave]

Jumping to HDOBS 14

026
URNT15 KNHC 311729
AF304 01EEA INVEST HDOB 14 20110731
171730 1432N 05620W 5792 04717 0092 +014 -075 068018 018 /// /// 03
171800 1428N 05611W 5838 04636 0094 +007 -067 072018 018 /// /// 03
171830 1427N 05609W 5831 04646 0094 +006 -066 073019 020 /// /// 03
171900 1426N 05607W 5833 04646 0091 +008 -065 073017 018 /// /// 03
171930 1425N 05606W 5839 04635 0093 +007 -065 078016 016 /// /// 03
172000 1424N 05604W 5835 04642 0090 +009 -065 077016 017 /// /// 03
172030 1424N 05602W 5835 04640 0093 +010 -064 075016 017 /// /// 03
172100 1423N 05559W 5945 04491 0104 +016 -064 079014 015 /// /// 03
172130 1423N 05557W 6121 04287 0129 +029 -063 076015 015 /// /// 03
172200 1423N 05555W 6324 04016 0132 +046 -062 084014 015 /// /// 03
172230 1423N 05554W 6561 03712 0132 +063 -057 088010 010 /// /// 03
172300 1423N 05552W 6809 03401 0132 +080 -050 087011 011 /// /// 03
172330 1424N 05550W 7049 03114 0126 +099 -042 089010 010 /// /// 03
172400 1424N 05548W 7302 02813 0124 +112 -030 097008 008 /// /// 03
172430 1425N 05546W 7560 02516 0128 +123 -012 109009 009 /// /// 03
172500 1425N 05544W 7822 02229 0131 +135 -018 124010 011 /// /// 03
172530 1426N 05542W 8071 01963 0131 +152 -056 109012 012 /// /// 03
172600 1426N 05540W 8270 01750 0127 +165 -062 091013 014 /// /// 03
172630 1425N 05539W 8451 01565 0126 +166 -049 083013 013 /// /// 03
172700 1425N 05537W 8679 01330 0127 +166 +031 085011 012 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Dean4Storms]

The western area should fade away as the the low near 14N 52W continues to organize and deepen. That is where Recon. will be investigating and likely to find our TC!

[Aric Dunn]

12z CMC animated run.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2011073112&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

thats almost identical to the david track...

[cycloneye]

Plane is decending.

[KWT]

Look at the swirl on the eastern one.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

Pretty strong MLC, I'm curious as to what recon shows when they eventually upgrade, because sometimes the vigourous MLC isn't matched by a surface low.

Curious ole system though for sure!

Ps, I'm not so sure we should discount the western area, there is fairly good westerly winds south of the deep convection and the convection is getting stronger as well, so whilsrt conditions may not be as good for the western system, it sorta is better organised at the surface.

May just end up as an eddy, so we'll have to wait and see.

[Weatherfreak000]

Latest CMC proves the point. NOTHING HAS CHANGED. No matter how this plays out the models see a substantial weakness, substantial enough to force 91L to the north regardless of whether the west area wins, or whether it travels thru the Caribbean. It really doesn't matter, the only other solution is a slam into Central America.

no matter how close 91L gets to SFL, close just doesn't cut it. The models are still in remarkable agreement this thing is destined to go swimming. I am still concerned for the poor islands....all this bickering over the "so called trend change" neglects the thought the islands are about to get slammed.

Wake me up when the models DON'T show that huge weakness, then we can discuss a "trend change".

[ronjon]

12z NOGAPS - develops the western blob.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?area=ngp_troplant&dtg=2011073112&prod=z85&tau=000&set=Tropical