ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[SapphireSea]

I put her at 13.2N and 57.5W.....just eyeballing it

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Seems close. I don't know. I do see the high clouds streaming off NE on it's W side. Encountering some stronger SW or WSW shear from the looks of it.

[ROCK]

finally.....full loop of the all powerful NAVGEM.....LA again

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

As dumb as NAVGEM can be, it doesn't seem to have a bad solution. If it decouples and becomes shallow I could see it riding low level flow.

that is a good point.....

[ROCK]

I put her at 13.2N and 57.5W.....just eyeballing it

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Seems close. I don't know. I do see the high clouds streaming off NE on it's W side. Encountering some stronger SW or WSW shear from the looks of it.

yeah I was .2 degress off....thanks Aric... I think she is just moving to fast for the convection to fully catch up...

[Aric Dunn]

I put her at 13.2N and 57.5W.....just eyeballing it

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Seems close. I don't know. I do see the high clouds streaming off NE on it's W side. Encountering some stronger SW or WSW shear from the looks of it.

yeah I was .2 degress off....thanks Aric... I think she is just moving to fast for the convection to fully catch up...

yep

[meriland23]

00Z EURO 0hrs



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[SapphireSea]

Wee. Euro sees nothing at the surface. Seems to be latching onto (or not latching) something. Wonder if it does ever close it off later.

[meriland23]

funny thing is, I can't find another map that would show it for the EURO.. tropicaltidbits doesn't have the euro.. but we will see how this runs..

[SouthFloridawx]

Maybe we can just use the Euro to see what it does with the Ridge.

[Aric Dunn]

Maybe we can just use the Euro to see what it does with the Ridge.

exaclty... its a global model and thats what its best at like the GFS.. large scale synoptic patterns

[meriland23]

00z EURO 24hrs



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[Aric Dunn]

24 hr euro.. a little to the right going over PR ...

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF ... b&hour=024

[meriland23]

New 5 day forecast via NHC @ 2am ... changes from depression to storm this time around after northward turn. Still no left curve



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[Aric Dunn]

72 hr central bahamas ...

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF ... b&hour=072

[SouthFloridawx]

[Hurricane Alexis]

New 5 day forecast via NHC @ 2am ... changes from depression to storm this time around after northward turn. Still no left curve



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That's the same track from the 11 pm advisory.

[SapphireSea]

Seems like the same trough, albeit more pronounced than what the GFS sees so far for the EURO.

[Aric Dunn]

nothing on the euro at all.. though the ridge quite strong..

[SapphireSea]

nothing on the euro at all.. though the ridge quite strong..

Seems to erode pretty heavy, although still looks like steering will collapse sooner rather than later possibly.

[Aric Dunn]

nothing on the euro at all.. though the ridge quite strong..

Seems to erode pretty heavy, although still looks like steering will collapse sooner rather than later possibly.

it erodes then builds back quick like the rest of the models...

see that 591 line at 120hr that would block any north motion of a TC there.. only west motion.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF ... b&hour=144

[meriland23]

00z EURO 96 hr



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