Texas Spring-2015

[Texas Snowman]

TV Met Larry Mowry (@CBS11Larry) reported earlier on Twitter that EF-1 damage has been found in Mineral Wells and at Runaway Bay on Lake Bridgeport after last night's tornadoes.

I saw elsewhere where someone in the media (Channel 4, I think) reported that as many as 50 homes in the Lake Bridgeport area will be uninhabitable tonight.

BTW, Bridgeport is up more than four-feet in 24 hours according to Mowry.

[Texas Snowman]

David Finfrock reported the same thing, that Fort Worth NWS found EF-1 damage in both Runaway Bay and Mineral Wells.

I was a little surprised by that because some of the damage (to my untrained eye, of course) appeared to be EF-2 damage in Runaway Bay.

[Texas Snowman]

By the way, most are probably aware of this NWS Mobile radar site, but if not:

http://preview.weather.gov/edd

[ravyrn]

What lake(s) does Texoma release into? Lavon has stopped releases. I'm guessing the Army Corp of Engineers wants Ray Hubbard to drop some before filling it with more water. A staggered, stair-step maneuver possibly.

Texoma releases down to the Red River, there are no other flood control lakes (to my knowledge) down stream of Texoma. it is the only man made lake on the River itself. However there are numerous cities and towns that can get flooded if the river is already in flood stage on both the Texas and Oklahoma side. Thus releases from the lake is usually reserved for the hydro electric plant it produces. I guess that's why it needs such a vast spillway.

DeKalb, Texas in northeast Texas is one city that is always in question with downstream flooding.

Also, the Shreveport/Bossier City area in Louisiana is also subject to flooding from the Red River. While not a series of actual reservoirs behind a dam (like at Texoma), the Red River in Louisiana has several locks in place that boats have to go through.

Are you talking about the rural areas northeast of DeKalb? Because I used to spend some time at a hunting lease in the area along and west of Malta Farm lake and the flood plain seems to be about 8 miles away from town.

[gboudx]

From jeff:

Threat for excessive rainfall will return to the region Thursday and Friday…but the main focus will be on the weekend with an increasing threat for excessive rainfall amounts and flash flooding/river flooding.

Frontal boundary over north TX currently will move into SE TX tonight. Air mass over the region is moist and unstable clearly seen by scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. As the boundary begins to interact with this air mass expect to see an increase in showers and thunderstorms later tonight. This activity will move southward into the region. Will also need to keep an eye on extensive convection ongoing west of the Rio Grande and near/south of San Angelo in case some sort of thunderstorm complex comes at us from the west tonight.

Convection the next two days will focus on outflow boundaries and the frontal boundary which should stall near the coast late Thursday into Friday. Storm motions will become increasingly slow so rainfall rates will be gradually greater with time. Grounds are still saturated and rivers high…some in flood…so additional heavy rainfall has little choice but the run-off. Could easily see rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour under the stronger storms on Thursday and Friday. Overall not looking at organized heavy rainfall…but more spotty in nature according the to meso scale guidance.

Weekend:
Of bigger concern is the arrival of a deep upper level storm system into TX over the Memorial Day weekend. Moisture levels will begin to surge upward on Saturday as the old frontal zone near the coast washes out. PWS rise to near 2.0 inches by Sunday at the same time lift arrives from the west. Upper level winds become increasingly divergent with time on Sunday into Monday and numerous disturbances move ENE/NE out of MX…sound familiar. Surface boundaries will likely help focus/anchor storms and copious moisture levels certainly support excessive rainfall. Large thunderstorm complexes will likely result out of NE MX Sunday-Tuesday with excessive rainfall rates likely. Way too early to attempt to pin point any likely areas of excessive rainfall…but widespread amounts of 2-4 inches with significantly higher totals possible.

Given the already wet grounds (rainfall for the first two weeks of May 90-600% of normal), swollen rivers, and reservoir releases ongoing, rainfall of this magnitude will certainly cause additional flooding and flash flooding.

Residents should remain aware of weather conditions this weekend and be prepared for possible flooding conditions. This is especially true for areas of C TX where normally dry river and creek beds can respond very quickly to excessive rainfall and visitors can be caught off guard in flash flood prone areas.

[aggiecutter]

Are you talking about the rural areas northeast of DeKalb? Because I used to spend some time at a hunting lease in the area along and west of Malta Farm lake and the flood plain seems to be about 8 miles away from town.[/quote][/quote]

The Red River north of DeKalb(at Pecan Point) has been at a moderate flood level for about a week.

[aggiecutter]

Just found this snippet on NBC 6 Shreveport meteorologist Todd Warren's Web Site:

" The latest forecast from the NWS regarding the Red River has it cresting at major flood levels at Pecan Point north of De Kalb, TX Sunday. Crest is forecast to be 31 feet. The river will crest in Shreveport above flood stage Monday at 30.7 feet. Flood stage is 30 feet. The Red will also crest above flood stage in Coushatta by the middle of next week at 34.2 feet. These forecasts are definitely subject to change as more heavy rain is likely this weekend and the first of next week along the Red upstream. "

[Brent]

Surprised nothing over EF1 TBH.

[weatherdude1108]

Our local news did a story last night about our lakes/aquifers. Good stuff!

http://kxan.com/2015/05/19/a-summer-for ... for-years/

[weatherdude1108]

They just talked on the local news about an MCV forming around Junction, creating torrential rain producing storms (3-4 inches per hour), and not moving much. They're talking maybe half a FOOT OF rain potentially in hill country and Lake LBJ downstream, which eventually hits Travis.

First Flash Flood Warning of the evening (upstream of Travis):


FLASH FLOOD WARNING
TXC299-210645-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FF.W.0040.150521T0340Z-150521T0645Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1040 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN LLANO COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 145 AM CDT

* AT 1037 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST LLANO COUNTY. UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES. FLASH
FLOODING IS LIKELY AS A LINE OF STORMS IS SITTING OVER THAT AREA.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
LLANO...PRAIRIE MOUNTAIN...ENCHANTED ROCK STATION AND CASTELL.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT
TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 3076 9871 3050 9871 3050 9896 3076 9896

$$

[utpmg]

Keep coming, we need it. We need it all!

[Shoshana]

You know you are in Texas when you see a Stage 3 drought Emergency on a city's official homepage and a flood evacuation order on their Facebook page.

Wichita Falls.

It never rains but it pours.

[Ntxw]

Army corps of engineers is trying to control Texoma releasing flow. If no more rain falls the spillway is expected to go over by Monday even with the release. However lots of rain is expected this weekend in North Texas and especially the Red River Valley. Assuming that happens it might happen as soon as Sunday.

Ray Roberts is more than full but they cannot release water now as they were some days ago due to Lewisville Lake be well over. This weekend's rain will definitely put a strain on the system.

Flood watches and warnings continue up in Oklahoma upstream of Texoma. North Texas will probably start getting them too in the coming days.

Not a 7 day map, 3 days



And of course being this is memorial day weekend, plans for boating on the area lakes is going to be a headache for those who try. Ramps and marinas are closed for public use due to the rising water, as well as some submerged adjacent parks.

[TexasStorm]

We could probably start selling water instead of oil here in Texas. If we could only figure out how to get it to California

[Ntxw]

Of note the models are now advertising a possible May EPAC hurricane that May impact the western Mexican coast. Watch that thing closely if it forms it's going to be another problem.

[Rgv20]

More Rain! April and May sure has been wet for my area!

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
TXC427-211815-
/O.NEW.KBRO.FF.W.0026.150521T1511Z-150521T1815Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1011 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
STARR COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...

* UNTIL 115 PM CDT

* AT 1007 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL STARR COUNTY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING TO THE
SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 25 MPH. THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES OF TWO TO THREE INCHES AN HOUR. FLASH
FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
RIO GRANDE CITY...ROMA...EL SAUZ...LA ROSITA...STARR COUNTY
SHERIFFS OFFICE...VIBORAS...RIO GRANDE CITY FIRE DEPARTMENT...RIO
GRANDE CITY LIBRARY...ROMA CITY HALL...RINGGOLD MIDDLE SCHOOL...
ROMA HIGH SCHOOL...ROMA CITY POLICE DEPARTMENT...ROMA PUBLIC
LIBRARY...SULLIVAN CITY...LA GRULLA...ESCOBARES...GARCIASVILLE...
FALCON DAM AND SANTA CRUZ.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 2657 9917 2666 9902 2678 9895 2678 9878
2646 9849 2626 9859 2624 9866 2629 9871
2630 9875 2631 9876 2631 9874 2637 9880
2635 9890 2639 9893 2637 9895 2640 9896
2640 9908 2643 9911 2648 9909 2654 9917

$$

SPEECE

[Ralph's Weather]

Army corps of engineers is trying to control Texoma releasing flow. If no more rain falls the spillway is expected to go over by Monday even with the release. However lots of rain is expected this weekend in North Texas and especially the Red River Valley. Assuming that happens it might happen as soon as Sunday.

Ray Roberts is more than full but they cannot release water now as they were some days ago due to Lewisville Lake be well over. This weekend's rain will definitely put a strain on the system.

Flood watches and warnings continue up in Oklahoma upstream of Texoma. North Texas will probably start getting them too in the coming days.

Not a 7 day map, 3 days



And of course being this is memorial day weekend, plans for boating on the area lakes is going to be a headache for those who try. Ramps and marinas are closed for public use due to the rising water, as well as some submerged adjacent parks.

In East Texas we have surpassed these totals just this morning with totals around an inch already here with more still falling. We are now over 30" for the year and the year to date average is around 17".

[Rgv20]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC427-211630-
/O.NEW.KBRO.SV.W.0049.150521T1530Z-150521T1630Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1030 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL STARR COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1130 AM CDT

* AT 1029 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL AND
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER
RIO GRANDE CITY MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...OR OVER STARR COUNTY SHERIFFS
OFFICE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RIO GRANDE CITY...LA ROSITA...STARR COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE...RIO
GRANDE CITY FIRE DEPARTMENT...RIO GRANDE CITY LIBRARY...RINGGOLD
MIDDLE SCHOOL...SULLIVAN CITY...LA GRULLA...GRULLA MIDDLE SCHOOL...
GARCIASVILLE...LA PUERTA...SANTA CRUZ...
STARR COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL...LOS GARZAS...LOS ALVAREZ...
LAS LOMAS...ALTO BONITO...
RIO GRANDE CITY MUNICIPAL AIRPORT AND FORT RINGGOLD COUNTY PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A
STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 2626 9868 2627 9872 2628 9870 2629 9871
2630 9875 2631 9875 2631 9874 2633 9875
2633 9879 2637 9880 2637 9886 2635 9890
2643 9895 2652 9878 2628 9857 2626 9859
2625 9862 2626 9862 2624 9864 2624 9867
TIME...MOT...LOC 1529Z 327DEG 15KT 2642 9883

$$

SPEECE

[weatherdude1108]

Last sentence of the EWX office area discussion at around 3:30pm:

IN OTHER NEWS...DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
329 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE PROLIFIC SOUTHWEST FLOW
REGIME WE HAVE BEEN STUCK UNDER IS ENTERING THE BIG BEND AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN
TONIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE LOOKS A LITTLE LESS DEFINED COMPARE TO
LAST NIGHTS BUT PWAT VALUES ARE STILL PLENTY HIGH ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. HI RES MODELS...WHICH HAVENT EXACTLY BEEN TRUST
WORTHY...MISSING OUT ON LAST NIGHTS MCS...ARE ADVERTISING ANOTHER
EASTWARD MOVING MCS ENTERING DEL RIO AROUND 06Z. AFTER SOME
COLLABORATION...OPTED TO RANGE QPF VALUES BETWEEN HALF AN INCH TO
ONE INCH. LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS ARE SHOWING
DEVELOPMENT ONGOING IN THIS AREA SO LOOKS LIKE THE HI-RES MAY HAVE
ITS ACT TOGETHER TODAY.

WHILE QPF VALUES ARE NOT TOO HIGH ALTOGETHER...THE CONCERN IS THE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT. SO FAR...THESE SYSTEMS HAVE MAINTAINED
HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY...AND AS SUCH...THIS POTENTIAL MCS
WOULD HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES OF UP TO ABOUT 3 INCHES. SINCE THE ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS
OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ARE EXTREMELY SATURATED...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF THIS SYSTEM BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED. ONLY
REASONS THAT MAY NOT HAPPEN IS THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND THE LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS DUE TO THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE THIS MORNING. DO BELIEVE THIS THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SO POPS DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY TOWARDS THE
I35 CORRIDOR.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE MAIN POINTS OF THE FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM HAVE NOT CHANGED
SUBSTANTIALLY. STILL SEEING WHAT LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBLE HEAVY
RAINFALL TRAINING PATTERN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OVER MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND. THE EVENT STILL LOOKS TO BEGIN LATE SATURDAY AND
THROUGH SUNDAY...POSSIBLY PERSISTING INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE
GOOD NEWS IS THE UPPER LOW ORIENTATION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE QUITE
AS COINCIDENT WITH THE AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX AS THEY
HAVE BEEN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. WHICH WOULD MEAN THAT PERHAPS THE
TRAINING POTENTIAL SHOULD BE DECREASED A BIT. ALSO...THE BETTER
JET DYNAMICS APPEAR TO STAY NORTH OF THE CWA...SO HOPEFULLY WE
ARE LOOKING MORE AT A STEADY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EVENT THAT IS
MORE OF A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THREAT. NEVERTHELESS...IT WILL
NOT TAKE MUCH RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND TO RESULT IN RIVER AND
FLASH FLOODING IMPACTS. THUS...WILL STILL ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL
IN AN SPS TO SUPPLEMENT THIS AFD.

THE NEXT QUANDARY OCCURS WITH HOW THE SYSTEM EVOLVES AS THE UPPER
LOW BEGINS ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION. ECMWF IS BANKING ON STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFTING AND A QUICK RETURN FLOW REGIME THAT RESULTS IN
QPF BULLSEYES OF OVER 5 INCHES MAINLY IN THE HOUSTON AREA.
HOWEVER...GFS IS A COUPLE ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE LESS WITH THE QPF
GENERATION AS THE RETURN FLOW IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG. ITS ALSO A
BIT UNCLEAR ON THE SPEED OF THE EXITING UPPER LOW. THEREFORE...DID
NOT LEAN HEAVILY ON THE BULLISH EURO OUTCOME AT THIS TIME.

BEYOND MONDAY...IT APPEARS THAT AT LEAST SOME RELIEF FROM THE
RAINY PATTERN MAY RETURN MID WEEK AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS A BIT
MORE TRANSITIONAL. DOES LOOK LIKE A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL COME
ONSHORE FROM THE PACIFIC LATE IN THE WEEK AND MAY RESULT IN SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL BUT MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN THE
COVERAGE.

[Ntxw]

The latest drought update is in. Last week the highest drought category (exceptional) was removed from the state. This week the second highest (extreme) has been completely removed to 0%. 3.29% of the state is in severe drought. Not just Texas but all of the southern plains has eliminated the top two tiers of drought.



By next week the area around Wichita Falls may get removed as well other parts of NW Texas. As with the typical El Nino, new drought is now forming in the midwest.

Just to jog the memories a little of the obscenity that was 2011 when 88% of the state was in exceptional drought.