Texas Winter 2018-2019

[TexasF6]

Reed Timmer will be chasing initially, near Brownwood later today.

[bubba hotep]

The EPS propagates the MJO faster and at a lower amp than the GEFS.

https://i.ibb.co/vw0WMH2/ECMF-phase-MANOM-51m-small.gif

In +ENSO January the analogs show a pretty big difference between high amp P6 and lower amp P8

P6 high amp Surface Temp Anomalies

https://i.ibb.co/mSsHwvc/Jan-ENMJOphase6gt12m-T.gif

vs P8 lower amp Surface Temp Anomalies

https://i.ibb.co/2yfN91y/Jan-ENMJOphase8all2m-T.gif

Things are no clearer today as both the GEFS and Euro EPS stick to their guns on the MJO. Interestingly, the EPS shows more spread on the warm side of things in early January. Both the GEFS and EPS show Texas eventually ending up under dry NW flow as we head into January with most of the cold air shunted off to the East.

[Haris]

[

Haven’t seen such a large enhanced risk area since last spring. Latest update

[Ntxw]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1077973076363620358

[bubba hotep]

1st watch of the day coming shortly



Mesoscale Discussion 1725
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CST Wed Dec 26 2018

Areas affected...Parts of Central and Northwest Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 261828Z - 262030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Tornado threat will increase across parts of central and
northwest TX as the afternoon evolves.

DISCUSSION...Sustained low-level warm advection appears mostly
responsible for gradual increase in deep convection from the
northern Hill Country into northwest TX. LLJ is forecast to
strengthen across northwest TX into southwest OK into late afternoon
and a corridor of scattered strong thunderstorms may ultimately
evolve along this axis over the next 2-4 hours as the source region
for updrafts gradually lowers into the boundary layer. Latest
observations suggest near-surfaced based parcels are already buoyant
and temperatures in the upper 60s to near 70F will result in no
CINH. Latest thinking is scattered supercells should evolve ahead of
maturing squall line and given the strong shear the tornado threat
should increase. Tornado watch will likely be issued by 20z to
account for this threat.

..Darrow/Thompson.. 12/26/2018

[bubba hotep]

For West Texas

[wxman57]

Goodbye massive upper-level low over South Texas on January 4th (as per previous ECMWF runs). 12Z EC run says "never mind".

[Cpv17]

Well I see the models are back to being boring again. What a surprise

[EnnisTx]

Goodbye massive upper-level low over South Texas on January 4th (as per previous ECMWF runs). 12Z EC run says "never mind".

http://wxman57.com/images/ECLoop.gif

Still 9 + days out! Remember never believe anything unless it's within a few day's and even then it's not always reliable.

[EnnisTx]

Lot's of thunder and some lightning here In big D. Haven't seen or heard that in a long time.

[wxman57]

Goodbye massive upper-level low over South Texas on January 4th (as per previous ECMWF runs). 12Z EC run says "never mind".

http://wxman57.com/images/ECLoop.gif

Still 9 + days out! Remember never believe anything unless it's within a few day's and even then it's not always reliable.

That was my point.

[Brent]

Well I see the models are back to being boring again. What a surprise

some things are so predictable

[EnnisTx]

Goodbye massive upper-level low over South Texas on January 4th (as per previous ECMWF runs). 12Z EC run says "never mind".

http://wxman57.com/images/ECLoop.gif

Still 9 + days out! Remember never believe anything unless it's within a few day's and even then it's not always reliable.

That was my point.

Actually, I was looking for one of your quotes saying the same thing, so I knew what your point was..

[EnnisTx]

Should be looking at a Tornado Watch from the DFW Metro to the South and West before long.

[Brent]

quite a lightning show with this initial round

[EnnisTx]

Tornado Watch # 442 until 10:00 pm to the West and South of DFW.

[missygirl810]

quite a lightning show with this initial round

How many rounds will there be?

[Brent]

quite a lightning show with this initial round

How many rounds will there be?

scattered storms on and off through early evening then likely a big line towards late evening/midnight which would end the threat

[bubba hotep]

[JDawg512]

I hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas day. Been nice weather today though definitely monitoring conditions as we head into the evening. Stay safe!