ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SFLcane]

18z has the recon data in HWRF.

[Jr0d]

NHC still saying this is the max intensity for the life of the storm. We'll see but the initial value keeps getting bumped up.

Usually the NHC errs on a stronger storm, I'm a bit surprised they are still so conservative after the Elsa continue to out perform the intensity guidance.

Hopefully the mountains will disrupt the storm. The Florida Keys is continuing business as usual based on the forecast for a tropical storm. If this does what the HWRF is predicting as becomes a major south of Cuba, and maintain hurricane strength while passing through Cuba, we will have a nightmare situation trying to over evacuate 100,000 tourists plus the residents on a single road out.

That said, I fully expect hurricane watches to be issued for the Florida Keys by this time tomorrow.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1411071122666180611

[lhpfish]

NHC still saying this is the max intensity for the life of the storm. We'll see but the initial value keeps getting bumped up.

Usually the NHC errs on a stronger storm, I'm a bit surprised they are still so conservative after the Elsa continue to out perform the intensity guidance.

Hopefully the mountains will disrupt the storm. The Florida Keys is continuing business as usual based on the forecast for a tropical storm. If this does what the HWRF is predicting as becomes a major south of Cuba, and maintain hurricane strength while passing through Cuba, we will have a nightmare situation trying to over evacuate 100,000 tourists plus the residents on a single road out.

That said, I fully expect hurricane watches to be issued for the Florida Keys by this time tomorrow.

Yes, they’ve been incrementally moving the “H” the other each advisory.

[captainbarbossa19]

Elsa is testing her limits. She already said "let it go" to the Euro and it already said "no." Now others are doubting her. No wonder she is moving at 30mph. She's running away like in the movie.

[AveryTheComrade]

SSMIS pass doesn't look great, moving too quickly.

[ConvergenceZone]

One thing for sure, if this goes even a little north of the current forecast path, Elsa is history, as it will be then traversing over the full length of Cuba, pretty much a guarantee shred-fest....Even the current forecasted path takes it over quite a bit of island. So it's possible that there may not be too much left of it, other than a mid intensive strength tropical storm...... We got to keep hoping for those North jogs as that will be the main factor whether Elsa survives or not...

[StPeteMike]

One thing for sure, if this goes even a little north of the current forecast path, Elsa is history, as it will be then traversing over the full length of Cuba, pretty much a guarantee shred-fest....Even the current forecasted path takes it over quite a bit of island. So it's possible that there may not be too much left of it, other than a mid intensive strength tropical storm...... We got to keep hoping for those North jogs as that will be the main factor whether Elsa survives or not...

Do you believe the current West movement or jog as depicted by the satellite image Avery posted will make hitting Haiti or even the coast of South and Central Cuba highly unlikely now?

I wouldn’t be surprised if this stays over water than what many have forecasted.

[Monsoonjr99]

Ok definite turn the to the west lately, maybe ruling out the Hispaniola path https://imgur.com/E2lAnfR

There's gonna be a lot of wobble watching with this storm it seems.

[ConvergenceZone]

One thing for sure, if this goes even a little north of the current forecast path, Elsa is history, as it will be then traversing over the full length of Cuba, pretty much a guarantee shred-fest....Even the current forecasted path takes it over quite a bit of island. So it's possible that there may not be too much left of it, other than a mid intensive strength tropical storm...... We got to keep hoping for those North jogs as that will be the main factor whether Elsa survives or not...

Do you believe the current West movement or jog as depicted by the satellite image Avery posted will make hitting Haiti or even the coast of South and Central Cuba highly unlikely now?

I wouldn’t be surprised if this stays over water than what many have forecasted.

The only way I would buy into the "mostly over water path" is if the NHC was buying into it..... We'll see. It seems like the latest forecast has it more over Cuba than they did earlier, so they are obviously seeing something we aren't....

[skillz305]

If you’re in the cone of error, just BOLO for the next 24/36 hours. It’s not time to panic in Florida but it is time to open your eyes and start deciding what you need to do to prepare. Usually EC of FL is in the direct cone at this time and we panic, just to see the cone shift west or east and pretty much steer clear of any direct hit. So just be weary when you see us off the center of the cone to possibly re-emerge into it when it’s narrowed down further. We still have another 24 hours before we can really say much (due to any swing of the cone, but more so the intensity forecast). Same goes for everyone, just because you’re not in the center of the cone doesn’t mean you shouldn’t BOLO for where a storm really wants to head to. Only time and Mother Nature decide where Elsa will go. Don’t wish cast, but also don’t be naive.

[toad strangler]

One thing for sure, if this goes even a little north of the current forecast path, Elsa is history, as it will be then traversing over the full length of Cuba, pretty much a guarantee shred-fest....Even the current forecasted path takes it over quite a bit of island. So it's possible that there may not be too much left of it, other than a mid intensive strength tropical storm...... We got to keep hoping for those North jogs as that will be the main factor whether Elsa survives or not...

Do you believe the current West movement or jog as depicted by the satellite image Avery posted will make hitting Haiti or even the coast of South and Central Cuba highly unlikely now?

I wouldn’t be surprised if this stays over water than what many have forecasted.

The only way I would buy into the "mostly over water path" is if the NHC was buying into it..... We'll see. It seems like the latest forecast has it more over Cuba than they did earlier, so they are obviously seeing something we aren't....

I agree and mentioned this earlier. The angle of approach coming into Cuba is looking more and more like a knock down blow, if not a knock out punch.

[AlphaToOmega]

If this stayed mostly over water, it could easily become a major hurricane.

[StPeteMike]

One thing for sure, if this goes even a little north of the current forecast path, Elsa is history, as it will be then traversing over the full length of Cuba, pretty much a guarantee shred-fest....Even the current forecasted path takes it over quite a bit of island. So it's possible that there may not be too much left of it, other than a mid intensive strength tropical storm...... We got to keep hoping for those North jogs as that will be the main factor whether Elsa survives or not...

Do you believe the current West movement or jog as depicted by the satellite image Avery posted will make hitting Haiti or even the coast of South and Central Cuba highly unlikely now?

I wouldn’t be surprised if this stays over water than what many have forecasted.

The only way I would buy into the "mostly over water path" is if the NHC was buying into it..... We'll see. It seems like the latest forecast has it more over Cuba than they did earlier, so they are obviously seeing something we aren't....

They also didn’t see it becoming a 85 mph hurricane….

Agree with others though, we shall have a better understand of track and intensity of this girl come the same time tomorrow.

[aspen]

The NOAA plane is at 70.7W, about 6 degrees of longitude away from Elsa. Maybe another hour or hour and a half until it reaches the storm.

Convection near Elsa’s CoC is warming, likely due to that bit of dry air combined with dirunal minimum.

[GCANE]

Moderate outflow supported by a weak UL Low to the east.
Rain rate dropping.

[skyline385]

18Z GFS has Elsa all over the place near Cuba, literally bounces off Jamaica lol

[SFLcane]

Looks like Elsa is about to explode…

[ConvergenceZone]

Do you believe the current West movement or jog as depicted by the satellite image Avery posted will make hitting Haiti or even the coast of South and Central Cuba highly unlikely now?

I wouldn’t be surprised if this stays over water than what many have forecasted.

The only way I would buy into the "mostly over water path" is if the NHC was buying into it..... We'll see. It seems like the latest forecast has it more over Cuba than they did earlier, so they are obviously seeing something we aren't....

They also didn’t see it becoming a 85 mph hurricane….

Agree with others though, we shall have a better understand of track and intensity of this girl come the same time tomorrow.

I agree, although strength is much much harder for the NHC to predict compared to the direction of where it's going...

[Category5Kaiju]

Looks like Elsa is about to explode…

https://i.postimg.cc/RFp57TY4/ABC43958-74-C3-42-FD-958-D-8338-DDF78708.gif

Seems like it's getting a little "shrimpy"