Texas Winter 2023-2024

[bubba hotep]

Most DFW mets don’t seem very good for it being a top media market. I listen to Evan and Steve M (not even on TV)…

Pete is an utter clown. He’s a joke.

It’s weird. In Kansas you could really trust any of the mets were great. Merrill Teller was my main guy but lots were good.

Evan is confidently going with the more conservative glancing blow approach:

Friday...SIX days from now is where we start to get huge model divergences that will make a BIG difference in the extended forecast. Do we have COLD air coming? YES. It will come in pieces. Will we get the full brunt of ARCTIC air and record temps? NO. That will stay north of us. It will exist across the nation, but not here.

Friday may see RAIN to briefly start the day as temps in the 40s FALL PM. It turns windy and cold after that.
Saturday looks mainly sunny and COLD. Lows in 20s, highs near 40. Sunday clouds up with highs in the 40s.
More downs and ups after that.

A lot are waiting on the GFS.

Probably hugging the NCEP NBM

[Cpv17]

Imo, when models are struggling like this, it means something big is probably going to happen.

[cheezyWXguy]

What I’m most curious about at this point is the storm track, even though I know it’s too far out to draw any real conclusions. That said, in theory it would make sense that a storm would ride along the front, allowing those on the north and east sides to cash in. Since there’s quite a bit of talk of the airmass pushing further south faster than currently depicted, is that what we’re banking on here? Or is it more that we’re expecting a dry/only rain frontal passage while hoping that following impulses within the cold airmass will pick up the slack?

[Ntxw]

What I’m most curious about at this point is the storm track, even though I know it’s too far out to draw any real conclusions. That said, in theory it would make sense that a storm would ride along the front, allowing those on the north and east sides to cash in. Since there’s quite a bit of talk of the airmass pushing further south faster than currently depicted, is that what we’re banking on here? Or is it more that we’re expecting a dry/only rain frontal passage while hoping that following impulses within the cold airmass will pick up the slack?

There is always vorticity or pieces of PVa, with the mother cold trough that is blocked. The OPs are not even in agreement the orientation of this, no less what impulses orbit the displaced PV. Not only does this determine speed of cold air and from what angle, but of course what vorticity breaks off to create lift. Just think of this pattern as a massive continental cutoff ULL. Jogs here and there makes a huge difference.

[txtwister78]

Evan is confidently going with the more conservative glancing blow approach:

Friday...SIX days from now is where we start to get huge model divergences that will make a BIG difference in the extended forecast. Do we have COLD air coming? YES. It will come in pieces. Will we get the full brunt of ARCTIC air and record temps? NO. That will stay north of us. It will exist across the nation, but not here.

Friday may see RAIN to briefly start the day as temps in the 40s FALL PM. It turns windy and cold after that.
Saturday looks mainly sunny and COLD. Lows in 20s, highs near 40. Sunday clouds up with highs in the 40s.
More downs and ups after that.

A lot are waiting on the GFS.

Probably hugging the NCEP NBM

While we've certainly seen this movie before in terms of what is being said on a tv forecast 7 days out vs what eventually becomes reality before a winter weather event, I think if you're rooting for winter precip, you don't necessarily want the brunt of the arctic dumping into Texas. That tends to dry everything out moisture wise and suppresses any available energy/impulse deeper into the south. I think we need to watch the 15th-17th period in terms of any winter precip as the arctic air settles in across the state by then. It will be cold enough for that

[Brent]

It's kind of a bummer the early week system trended so far north. Could've been a good one, I guess we sacrifice it for snow cover up north. Was hoping it could end the January snow drought.

Yeah I've been very annoyed up here watching yet another storm trend into Kansas. It's one reason why I think so many people are skeptical about next weekend because at that range nothing has panned out up here yet

I'm honestly even believe it when I see it with the snow maps here as good as it looks because I've been burned already

It just feels like when everything gets to day 3 or 4 it's all nevermind

[cheezyWXguy]

What I’m most curious about at this point is the storm track, even though I know it’s too far out to draw any real conclusions. That said, in theory it would make sense that a storm would ride along the front, allowing those on the north and east sides to cash in. Since there’s quite a bit of talk of the airmass pushing further south faster than currently depicted, is that what we’re banking on here? Or is it more that we’re expecting a dry/only rain frontal passage while hoping that following impulses within the cold airmass will pick up the slack?

There is always vorticity or pieces of PVa, with the mother cold trough that is blocked. The OPs are not even in agreement the orientation of this, no less what impulses orbit the displaced PV. Not only does this determine speed of cold air and from what angle, but of course what vorticity breaks off to create lift. Just think of this pattern as a massive continental cutoff ULL. Jogs here and there makes a huge difference.

Makes sense. I understand that my question lends itself to speculation on details that probably won’t be resolved for another week, just trying to see what cues to look for in the models in the coming days to see if the pattern eventually lends itself to a favorable setup.

I love winter weather but my knowledge around pattern recognition in this context is lacking compared to my understanding severe and tropical weather (also not a lot but better than my winter weather, haha)

[txtwister78]

Euro definitely faster than its previous 0z run and thus brings in much colder temps deeper into Texas by next Sunday evening.

[Ntxw]

Euro definitely faster than its previous 0z run and thus brings in much colder temps deeper into Texas by next Sunday evening.

This run looks like it might be brewing an overrunning event.

[dhweather]

Two winter storms over a five day stretch in the midwest in the 972-979mb range is pretty impressive. In tropical systems, these pressures would support cat 1 or cat 2 intensity.

[rwfromkansas]

Evan is confidently going with the more conservative glancing blow approach:

Friday...SIX days from now is where we start to get huge model divergences that will make a BIG difference in the extended forecast. Do we have COLD air coming? YES. It will come in pieces. Will we get the full brunt of ARCTIC air and record temps? NO. That will stay north of us. It will exist across the nation, but not here.

Friday may see RAIN to briefly start the day as temps in the 40s FALL PM. It turns windy and cold after that.
Saturday looks mainly sunny and COLD. Lows in 20s, highs near 40. Sunday clouds up with highs in the 40s.
More downs and ups after that.

A lot are waiting on the GFS.

Probably hugging the NCEP NBM

I do think with cold I listen a bit more to Steve early. A deeper cold makes more sense.

[txtwister78]

And there it is on the Euro. Classic overrunning event for portions of N and Central TX on this run. Temps still aren't cold enough however or far enough south (fast enough) as the model is clearly struggling with the shallow arctic air and so definitely something to watch going forward.

[Cpv17]

And there it is on the Euro. Classic overrunning event for portions of N and Central TX on this run. Temps still aren't cold enough however or far enough south (fast enough) as the model is clearly struggling with the shallow arctic air and so definitely something to watch going forward.

I guess we’ll see what the EPS shows.

[Iceresistance]

ECR is trending stronger on the EPS


https://s13.gifyu.com/images/S02ow.gif

[Portastorm]

And there it is on the Euro. Classic overrunning event for portions of N and Central TX on this run. Temps still aren't cold enough however or far enough south (fast enough) as the model is clearly struggling with the shallow arctic air and so definitely something to watch going forward.

Yeah that 12z Euro run would encase North Texas and you Metroplexers in sleet and ice!

[aggiecutter]

12z EURO with classic Icing Event for Monday-Tuesday for N Texas-Arkansas, with Snow in Oklahoma. Considering the model is probably slow with the Arctic Air, the event will probably be worse than the model is depicting.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data.

[gpsnowman]

12z EURO with classic Icing Event for Monday-Tuesday for N Texas-Arkansas, with Snow in Oklahoma. Considering the model is probably slow with the Arctic Air, the event will probably be worse than the model is depicting.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data.

Now an ice storm on the table. The plot thickens. We better get some snow out of all this!! And yes, hoping Euro solution is way too slow with the cold and puts Texas in the snow zone.
BTW the snow is accumulating nicely in Foxboro, Mass.

[cheezyWXguy]

Even the gfs, which is clearly struggling, has a system in the same time frame with winter precip trying to push into Texas. Looks like the models may be starting to converge on something

[Ntxw]

Theme from 12z is faster with the cold. The models that have western s/w then tries to slow it down.

[txtwister78]

12z EURO with classic Icing Event for Monday-Tuesday for N Texas-Arkansas, with Snow in Oklahoma. Considering the model is probably slow with the Arctic Air, the event will probably be worse than the model is depicting.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data.

Now an ice storm on the table. The plot thickens. We better get some snow out of all this!! And yes, hoping Euro solution is way too slow with the cold and puts Texas in the snow zone.
BTW the snow is accumulating nicely in Foxboro, Mass.

Euro Control run definitely shows what this could go to in terms of a cold faster solution and thus generates more frozen precip across the state.