ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[KirbyDude25]

They moved the forecast track pretty far to the north, by twenty-five miles. Now it shows landfall at St. Pete Beach as a Cat 3 just after 8 PM Wednesday.
That would be the worst-case scenario for Tampa Bay.

Correct me if I am wrong, but "landfall" would be when the eye comes ashore? I thought that may be helpful for those who are new to the board, or new to Hurricane living in general.

If I'm correct, it's when the middle of the eye (or center of circulation for eyeless storms) hits land

[hipshot]

saved loop
https://i.imgur.com/4f3twe8.gif

Man, that little tourist island north of the Yucatan is going to get totally clobbered!!

[HurricaneAndre2008]

I think that peak could be between 165 to 175mph.

[Hurricane2022]

I think that peak could be between 165 to 175mph.

Now i'm thinking something around 180 - 190 mph and 905 - 895 mb

[rudd]

NHC video update posted to YouTube.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGBkm6eQCLo

[ElectricStorm]

Holy **** I go to bed at 80kts and wake up to 135kts

Insane

[Keldeo1997]

 https://x.com/COweatherman/status/1843303084526899441

[lilbump3000]

https://www.youtube.com/@w.o.f.weathero ... irmation=1

[USTropics]

I cannot stress this enough: do not focus on the center of the cone if you live along the west coast of Florida and are in a surge prone area. With the pinhole eye this morning, we are going to have a unique interaction occurring where the EWRC will likely coincide with Milton interacting with the trough. This will also occur while Milton is over the vicinity of the loop current eddy that broke off from the gulf stream:


While maximum sustained winds will inevitably come down as this interaction occurs (an shear from the trough axis increases), the wind field will be SIGNIFICANTLY expanding. This is going to bring surge events well outside the normal spatial bounds:


The NHC 11am advisory paints a very ominous scenario occurring later this week, now is the time to evacuate:

[Canelaw99]

Yes, I’ve been around here long enough to know impacts extend well outside the cone and don’t focus on the cone.

However, my weather channel app has a message stating that Glades, Hendry, and inland Collier Counties have a hurricane watch, along with a Hurricane Watch issued for Lake Okeechobee. These areas seem pretty south for where NHC’s current track is, no? Just curious what the thinking might be…

[Abdullah]

NHC video update posted to YouTube.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGBkm6eQCLo

Damn, that's awesome that they started posting video updates to their official YouTube channel

It's a great idea, and they should expand it also to other social media platforms like Instagram, Twitter, TikTok etc.

Maybe in slightly shorter or longer forms, but it gets information out well.

[Highteeld]

Wouldn't be surprised to see this storm hit 900 mb. Pinhole eye makes rapid deepening possible.

[FLpanhandle91]

They moved the forecast track pretty far to the north, by twenty-five miles. Now it shows landfall at St. Pete Beach as a Cat 3 just after 8 PM Wednesday.
That would be the worst-case scenario for Tampa Bay.

Correct me if I am wrong, but "landfall" would be when the eye comes ashore? I thought that may be helpful for those who are new to the board, or new to Hurricane living in general.

Relief during the eye in the grand scheme of the total effect of a storm is minimal if anything. The only scenario "worse" would be what Mexico Beach experienced during Michael and sitting in the strongest part of the eyewall the entire time with no eye.

[GCANE]

Milton is now under the influence of ionospheric heating with a moderate geomagnetic storm

https://solarham.com/globald.htm
https://solarham.com/kp.htm

[skillz305]

Yes, I’ve been around here long enough to know impacts extend well outside the cone and don’t focus on the cone.

However, my weather channel app has a message stating that Glades, Hendry, and inland Collier Counties have a hurricane watch, along with a Hurricane Watch issued for Lake Okeechobee. These areas seem pretty south for where NHC’s current track is, no? Just curious what the thinking might be…

Exactly - seems premature for them to shift the cone north but they’re the experts

[chaser1]

What we are witnessing is absolutely mind-boggling

Just think about this for a moment and let it sink in. The NHC 4:00 am Discussion from this morning indicated initial winds as 100mph with a 24 hr forecast to reach Cat 4 strength. Now only 7 hours later, sustained winds are 150mph

[aspen]

Milton is now under the influence of ionospheric heating with a moderate geomagnetic storm

https://solarham.com/globald.htm
https://solarham.com/kp.htm

Will this put a cap on Milton’s future intensification today by decreasing atmospheric lapse rates?

[Abdullah]

They moved the forecast track pretty far to the north, by twenty-five miles. Now it shows landfall at St. Pete Beach as a Cat 3 just after 8 PM Wednesday.
That would be the worst-case scenario for Tampa Bay.

Correct me if I am wrong, but "landfall" would be when the eye comes ashore? I thought that may be helpful for those who are new to the board, or new to Hurricane living in general.

Yeah, that's right.

[Teban54]

Milton is now under the influence of ionospheric heating with a moderate geomagnetic storm

https://solarham.com/globald.htm
https://solarham.com/kp.htm

Will this put a cap on Milton’s future intensification today by decreasing atmospheric lapse rates?

I think it's the opposite: GCANE attributed Francine's intensification the morning before landfall with a similar solar event.

[wxman57]

I can't believe NHC didn't update that surge graphic to show 12-18 ft into Tampa Bay. It'll be about 12ft on the coast, but much higher into the Bay if it tracks across the northern part of TB.