Florida Weather

[northjaxpro]

Interesting overnight and this morning across the state.

NDG, yeah EURO did analyze the location and intensification of the Low Pressure area well, as did the NAM in the short to medium range, showing a similar analysis and showing the deep NNW wind trajectory to drive this morning's cold all the way deep down into the peninsula. These readings we observed this morning would have been even colder if we would had a snow pack across the Eastern CONUS that we usually would expect to have in January. However, the unusually warm winter up until now took care of that factor.

I was a bit surprised here across Northeast Florida in that basically after midnight, the temperature basically stayed at 31-32 degrees all night long. The temp actually warmed an hour between 4-5 a.m. this morning at my home, and it never dropped below 31 degrees as I left the house awhile ago. NWS Jax busted a bit on the 28F projected minimum temp for my location near them at the Jax International Airport. Jax Cecil Commerce station, always the coldest drainage spot in Jax/Duval County, measured 30 degrees this morning, and it failed to drop below 30F there this morning. The Jax WFO also busted a bit with the Hard Freeze projection for inland Northeast Florida out to Hwy 301 corridor. Gainesville did drop to 31 degrees, Lake City had 30 degrees. However, they projected 27-31 degrees last night and it did not get to the Hard freeze criteria in those areas. I attribute this to low level mixing at the surface for the temps falling short of dropping into the upper 20s across Northeast Florida.

Meanwhile, the NNW flow certainly brought Old Man Winter to the Nature Coast and down into the West Central peninsula as temps dropped well below freezing at Brooksville, with 29 degrees, and Tampa Exec Airport checked in at 32 degrees, along with Plant City, and Lakeland. The freezing line dropped all the way to just about the I-4 corridor. The farthest south I saw the freeze mark was down in Okeechobee, with 32 degrees.

Southeast Florida had a very cold morning for their standards, with readings dropping down into the upper 30s across interior Palm Beach, Dade and Broward, and to the lower 40s to the coast. Very impressive! Sarasota and Fort Myers both had 37 degrees down into the Southwest Florida peninsula, and Naples reported 41F.

So, at least for a 48 hour period, we had Old Man Winter finally flash us a brief appearance after such a warm meteorological winter season to this juncture. We moderate with temperatures beginning Thursday, and then we briefly have return flow on Friday -Saturday, ahead of the next shortwave, which actually will cross South Florida peninsula by late Sunday. Temps looks to cool right at our seasonal averages for next week, with no freezing temps currently seen in the medium to long term across North Florida going into next week.

[AJC3]

Interesting overnight and this morning across the state.

NDG, yeah EURO did analyze the location and intensification of the Low Pressure area well, as did the NAM in the short to medium range, showing a similar analysis and showing the deep NNW wind trajectory to drive this morning's cold all the way deep down into the peninsula. These readings we observed this morning would have been even colder if we would had a snow pack across the Eastern CONUS that we usually would expect to have in January. However, the unusually warm winter up until now took care of that factor.

I was a bit surprised here across Northeast Florida in that basically after midnight, the temperature basically stayed at 31-32 degrees all night long. The temp actually warmed an hour between 4-5 a.m. this morning at my home, and it never dropped below 31 degrees as I left the house awhile ago. NWS Jax busted a bit on the 28F projected minimum temp for my location near them at the Jax International Airport. Jax Cecil Commerce station, always the coldest drainage spot in Jax/Duval County, measured 30 degrees this morning, and it failed to drop below 30F there this morning. The Jax WFO also busted a bit with the Hard Freeze projection for inland Northeast Florida out to Hwy 301 corridor. Gainesville did drop to 31 degrees, Lake City had 30 degrees. However, they projected 27-31 degrees last night and it did not get to the Hard freeze criteria in those areas. I attribute this to low level mixing at the surface for the temps falling short of dropping into the upper 20s across Northeast Florida.

Meanwhile, the NNW flow certainly brought Old Man Winter to the Nature Coast and down into the West Central peninsula as temps dropped well below freezing at Brooksville, with 29 degrees, and Tampa Exec Airport checked in at 32 degrees, along with Plant City, and Lakeland. The freezing line dropped all the way to just about the I-4 corridor. The farthest south I saw the freeze mark was down in Okeechobee, with 32 degrees.

Southeast Florida had a very cold morning for their standards, with readings dropping down into the upper 30s across interior Palm Beach, Dade and Broward, and to the lower 40s to the coast. Very impressive! Sarasota and Fort Myers both had 37 degrees down into the Southwest Florida peninsula, and Naples reported 41F.

So, at least for a 48 hour period, we had Old Man Winter finally flash us a brief appearance after such a warm meteorological winter season to this juncture. We moderate with temperatures beginning Thursday, and then we briefly have return flow on Friday -Saturday, ahead of the next shortwave, which actually will cross South Florida peninsula by late Sunday. Temps looks to cool right at our seasonal averages for next week, with no freezing temps currently seen in the medium to long term across North Florida going into next week.

A couple of notes I'd like to add...

(1) Peninsular climatology won out again. As usual, the freeze line dipped down much farther south over the western interior compared to farther east. None of the official climate sites in ECFL dropped to 32F, and only LEE managed to get below 35F. Yes there were pockets of freezing temps farther south (Okeechobee), but you'll find spots like Okechobee, and ag sites like Archbold, Palmdale, Clewiston, and Immokalee all tend to run colder.

(2a) There are two influences at play here. One is marine. Ask the average Joe or Jane on the street and many won't realize the ECFL coast runs along a nearly true NNW heading of 340 degrees. So, not only does a true north wind have a slight onshore component, so does everything in between NNW-N. Any sort of boundary layer wind component, not just at the surface, but in the lowest 1-2km, will modify (even if only slightly in some case) cold air advection. The fact that winds were SCREAMING last night magnified this moderating influence.

(2b) The other is topography. There's a bona fide topographical influence to Florida cold snaps cause by the Lake Wales (or Mid-Florida) ridge. Again, this favors the western side of the peninsula. Whenever you have any sort of peninsular drainage component, even that couple hundred feet of rise has a big impact. Since polar/arctic air masses are dense, they more easily advect across areas that have the least resistance, and that tends to be west of the ridge line.

Finally, here's the ugly verification of min temps/WCIs from that 1/19/00Z run of the NAM on which the hypecast graphic was made...

[northjaxpro]

Thanks AJC3 You know I had other mets describe the topography effect to me some time ago and its effects with cold intrusions into Florida. It is a very interesting study and one that I tend to not think of much, but yes, it does have unique effects wrt cold air drainage. The western side , particularly the Nature Coast region, and the Southwest peninsula from Lakeland to Fort Myers, in several instances in the past, like this morning, have ended up with cold temperatures, just as cold as here in Northeast Florida. It is not too often that we have the synoptic set-up of the NNW trajectory funneling that polar air down into the entire peninsula often, but when it does set-up, it indeed is a very fascinating study. It is just one more interesting component our very unique state has along with the other influences we deal with year round.

Yeah, I am posting the info I have on the fly, so to speak, while I am at work, so I overlooked a couple of spots with this morning's low temps AJC3. I am aware of the automated stations across the state, I really did not have the time to post them , especially over South Florida earlier today. I just posted the major sites and locales and did a quick summation regarding what took place this morning.

I appreciate you AJC3 adding your thoughts this morning. I respect you as a colleague and I have enjoyed conversing with you on the Storm2K forum off and on in my time as a member, now going on 10 years.

[psyclone]

Thank goodness that's over...Great discussion above on cold climo. Hopefully we can forget about it for a long while. Just to add to the discussion above...the highway to cold in southwest florida is narrowing by a lane or two thanks to an ever expanding UHI in the Tampa bay area which is steadily moating us off from freezes. Naturally we can still freeze but the bar is a foot higher owing to development in central and western Pasco county and large tracts of Hillsborough county. If the large scale weather pattern favors fewer freeze threats (perhaps though it may be just a long run of good luck) and cold air faces a much more hostile environment of warmth emitting development... we could very well be burning the candle at both ends perhaps permanently altering freeze climo. Time will tell. On to warmer times..

[TheStormExpert]

Well it was in the 30’s this morning now it’s raining out, what’s tomorrow a sudden heatwave!? Love Florida and it’s bipolar weather.

[psyclone]

It looks like long term temps may loiter fairly close to normal for a change. No torches and no freezes. hopefully we can lock it in and enjoy since this time of year normal is pretty spectacular stuff.

[wxman57]

I hope that none of you was injured by falling iguanas this morning.

[northjaxpro]

I hope that none of you was injured by falling iguanas this morning.

LOL... well now 57 that was a potential problem for people down across The Everglades and throughout South Florida. I almost forgot how their reptilian bodies go dormant when temps fall.below 45 degrees and that was definitely the case down across that region earlier today.

I am pretty sure there will be several reports coming from down that way about them falling from trees but I have not seen any reports. However, I am sure we will have seen some reports trickle in about that on social media or news outlets since many of those iguanas roam around down there. I do hope, however, that no one did not get hurt if such reports did occur earlier today.

[TheStormExpert]

Snow flurries in West Palm Beach this afternoon!? Nah, can’t be true!


 https://twitter.com/steveweaglewptv/status/1220093566959177728

[boca]

I’m actually up in Manhattan N.Y. just arrived today so SFLcane or storm expert or gatorcane need to verify this but I left at 6am from Ft Lauderdale and the skies were clear.

https://www.abcactionnews.com/news/stat ... th-florida

[northjaxpro]

I have been awaiting word from them about this. I saw the video StormExpert posted earlier of this, but since it has been taken down by Twitter.

Thanks Boca for responding back. It has certainly been a very interesting day down in South Florida Huh? Let's see, early morning temps the upper 30s to low 40s down there, advisories posted for falling iguanas from trees, and video showing potential flurries in West Palm Beach earlier this afternoon?

Now that is some kind of day you all have had down there Lol.

Alright, SFL Cane, Gatorcane and the others down there, what is the deal with these potential snow flurries seen in Palm Beach earlier today?

[boca]

:uarrow: i have been awating word from them about this. I saw the video StormExpert posted earlier of this, but since it has been taken down by Twitter.

Thanks Boca for responding back. It has certainly been a very interesting day down in South Florida Huh? Let's see, early morning temps the upper 30s to low 40s down there, advisories posted for falling iguanas from trees, and vudro shoeing s iw flurries in West Palm Beach earlier this afternoon?

Now that is some kind of day you allb have had down there Lol.

Alright, SFL Cane, Gatorcane and the others down there, what is the deal with these potentiial snoe flurries seen in Palm Beach earlier today?

The air temp at west palm was 57 so how can that be possible but I saw the video so I’m baffled.

[northjaxpro]

Well, a downburst of wind from the mid to upper levels could possibly bring down graupel or ice pellets to the surface before melting. However, I saw that video and it sure did look like flurries to me too. I have not seen much more about it from the NWS Miami WFO, which is interesting. They had more discussion regarding the iguanas on their web page than anything else.

[psyclone]

I've observed graupel with surface temps near 50 in the early spring up north. that might be what was happening. it certainly wasn't true snow. too bad they didn't zoom in on the actual precip so we could get a good look at it. Graupel can get to be decent sized so it stands a good chance of making it to the ground even if it's melting on the way down..

[northjaxpro]

I've observed graupel with surface temps near 50 in the early spring up north. that might be what was happening. it certainly wasn't true snow. too bad they didn't zoom in on the actual precip so we could get a good look at it. Graupel can get to be decent sized so it stands a good chance of making it to the ground even if it's melting on the way down..

Exactly Psyclone. This is what I am thinking as well in what I was mentioning in my previous post. I think in.all likelihood it was graupel falling. It certainly was a very interesting video footage though I must say.

[NDG]

I drove through Palm Beach County early afternoon on my way back to Orlando, it started as a fine mist they gave it that look as if it was snow flakes, floating around, then it turned into a very heavy rain as I drove through St Lucie County. Temps were in the upper 50s, it was way too warm IMO and I really doubt there was a freezing column above the ground where precip started. Precip that falls to the ground as snow starts as snow so freezing temps would have to be freezing close to the ground for it to make it down if surface temps are above freezing.

[gatorcane]

Hey everybody. I was not in the area when there were the reported snow flurries but NWS Miami has confirmed it was not snow but graupel. Nonetheless it was COLD here and we ended up reaching around 41F along the coast, much colder than I thought. I didn’t see any falling iguanas, I think they need it a bit colder

Update...
Regarding reports of precipitation on West Palm Beach: further
analyses of the layer/sfc temperatures indicate it is too warm to
support snow anywhere across SoFlo. What is being reported in Palm
Beach is a mix of light showers and graupel, which can be
described as small, soft ice particles. Radar data this afternoon
has been showing persistent areas of weak convection over the
coastal waters off Palm Beach, which is manifesting the
instability off the coastline. Meanwhile, winds are backing with
height in the cold advection regime, becoming northeast around
700 mb and above, which will allow for any development of graupel
over the coastal waters to be advected onshore with the light
showers.

Mesoscale analyses show that cold air overlying the Gulf Stream/South
Florida waters is providing enough instability for convective
updrafts to deepen offshore and extend into icing layers in the
mid levels, an ideal scenario for graupel formation. The airmass
will remain cold enough for occasional graupel to survive all the
way to the surface, potentially without fully melting once it is
advected onshore by the mid level winds. However, any ice
particulate matter that could reach the sfc is not forming in
association with snow-growth processes.

The bottom line is that with sfc temps in the 50s to lower 60s,
no snow has occurred, nor will occur across SoFlo in association
with this activity. It is way too warm for snow to reach the low
levels. But additional light to moderate showers may continue
tonight with occasional instances of rain mixed with graupel.


https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=0

[northjaxpro]

OK Gatorcane, thanks for posting the final clarification from the NWS Miami WFO, although we figured it out pretty much before hand it was likely graupel falling.

Quite a lively day down in South Florida with cold temps, with graupel falling and iguanas possibly falling from trees LOL... that is quite a day down there... in South Florida LOL....

[TheStormExpert]

I didn’t buy it for a second! Not too mention it was only 38° at my home just north of West Palm Beach and that was during the early morning hours. The local news around here is ALWAYS looking for something to hype up.

Regardless it’s been a rather strange weather day! That started with the coldest temperatures across South Florida in a few years along with even colder windchills to rain and reports of graupel.

We can also thank are unusually warm winters as to why are iguana population is skyrocketing! It’s about flipping time a cold arctic blast puts them into shock, they eat anything in sight!

[psyclone]

The non weather geeks will gravitate to the most dramatic solution...any ice is snow...just like wind damage is always a tornado..