Global model runs discussion

[KWT]

CZ, looks like its from the EPAC that gets lifted up by the strong troughing...I think its probably overdoing the troughing again this run though so it probably wouldn't lift out like that.

That 18z is very close to hurricane Earl of 1998 though to be fair!

[flwxwatcher]

any speculation on where that gulf system is going to come from? Is there anything out there now giving clues? I'm scratching my head on this one....

Well ,the Gulf system in the longer range on Todays 18Z GFS run comes in the from the NW Caribbean and passes over the Yucatan and into the Gulf but in the shorter term there is some model support for a homebrew system in the NE Gulf the next few days also.

[Fego]

I don't know if anyone noticed but now we have the ECMWF in the "Experimental forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields' page

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[Ivanhater]

The little storm that comes off the African coast (the one far south) becomes a depression before the Islands and blows up to a hurricane entering the Gulf

[Scorpion]

This is way out, but it shows something big brewing in the Caribbean. Perhaps a Gulf threat down the road?

[Macrocane]

I know it's very long range but in a case like that I would be very interested as it is very near Central America.

[ColinDelia]

The Caribbean storm is a wave due to come off the coast of Africa in about 60 hours. If you look at the GFS 950 mb vorticity you can follow it across the Atlantic.

[Vortex]

Ivan,

Thats the one I'm concerned about....I'm at work so I can't post the sat image of that wave over Africa. Maybe someone can start a thread.....

[Ivanhater]

:uarrow:

Ivan,

Thats the one I'm concerned about....I'm at work so I can't post the sat image of that wave over Africa. Maybe someone can start a thread.....

Started a new thread...

[cycloneye]

I am posting this 18z GFS long range here as is another system apart from the Ivans one. Yes, over me 15 days ahead. But what is very interesting is the pattern to favorable change that GFS shows.

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS goes nuts with a parade of storms. After developing possible Earl and Fiona. It develops 2 more after that! One entering the Caribbean, ending south of PR

[srainhoutx]

If the 18Z GFS is to be believed, we certainly have an active time ahead regardless of tracks.

[ColinDelia]

ACE would go nuts

[Vortex]

I think we can say the calm before the storm is just about over!!!! Actually it's over! Welcome to the 2010 Hurricane season....

[Ivanhater]

Lid has FLOWN off on the GFS...

I'll bring back my post from a couple days ago about the MJO...

We could see one heck of a September coming up, and I mean crazy

[AtlanticWind]

Well maybe we wont have to read any more posts about how the pre season forecasts were all wrong.

[Recurve]

00 GFS at least showing three fish in a row to start. Glad to get some of them out of the way at least without any impact since it just keeps up.

[srainhoutx]

Very surprised no one mentioned this from the 00z Euro. The Western Caribbean as well as the Gulf will need to be closely very watched over the next couple of weeks or so IMO.

[Agua]

Very surprised no one mentioned this from the 00z Euro. The Western Caribbean as well as the Gulf will need to be closely very watched over the next couple of weeks or so IMO.

Don't think there's much need to worry about people "closely watching" or "keeping an eye on" anything around this board. This thread dedicated to algorithim generated systems 2+ weeks in advance should demonstrte that point.

[Stormcenter]

Post of the day.

Don't think there's much need to worry about people "closely watching" or "keeping an eye on" anything around this board. This thread dedicated to algorithim generated systems 2+ weeks in advance should demonstrte that point.

[/quote]