ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

[artist]

seems the sfwmd updates itself so won't repost the latest model map. Just look above.

[cycloneye]

Yes,that a big improvement to the site indeed.

[ozonepete]

LOL. I just got in here to check everything out. Die please die Fred! I guess the NHC is still talking about it because it is indeed still a remnant low with a closed circulation, which you can still see on the visible. It also shows up on the HPC surface analysis below as that tiny little L out there east of Florida. But their prog chart for 00Z tonight drops it, as well they should. 30+ knots of shear coming?!!

As we say here in Queens, fuhgeddaboutit!

[wxman57]

Bones has had enough of Fred.

[leanne_uk]

bye bye fred, its been, well fun i guess. Time consuming but fun all the same

[jlauderdal]

Bones has had enough of Fred.

its official folks, when 57 posts bones its time to lock it down and send it to the archive

[ozonepete]

Bones has had enough of Fred.

its official folks, when 57 posts bones its time to lock it down and send it to the archive

But proceed at your own risk. This should have been called Lazarus instead of Fred!

[IvanSurvivor]

Is it really finally gone now?

[BigA]

I still say that in some way Fred ¨wins¨ if one drop of rain from the remnant of any of his vorticity falls on United States soil.

[Ptarmigan]

That QS image didn't match actual surface obs in the region. I'd trust actual observations over QS any day. A water vapor loop would be good to look at for Fred (and 98L). Look at the WSW-SW wind max that Fred's moving into now.

I could of used that same RAID for that cockroach ridge this past summer.

[wxman57]

That QS image didn't match actual surface obs in the region. I'd trust actual observations over QS any day. A water vapor loop would be good to look at for Fred (and 98L). Look at the WSW-SW wind max that Fred's moving into now.
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/raid2.jpg

I could've used that same RAID for that cockroach ridge this past summer.

No, that Raid was for TC's and pesky invests only. You'd need this Raid:

[ozonepete]

Is it really finally gone now?

Well... I know Bones has spoken, but The latest HPC surface analysis, for 21Z, still has Fred - note the little 1016mb low east of Florida/Georgia. It's also clearly visible on the satellite image from 22Z (6PM EDT). It's only my humble opinion, but I would say we shouldn't declare him dead until he's taken off the HPC surface analysis and taken off as a code yellow by the NHC (it's still there as of the 5PM update). Then it truly doesn't exist according to the meteorological community.

[Emmett_Brown]

This is our first night in a while without Fred, and I don't know what to do next. Wouldn't it be something if it chose tonight to pop? Wow, I must be board, time to step away from the keys for a while.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[ozonepete]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Thanks, HURAKAN. OK, the NHC dropped the code yellow. Now let's see what the HPC surface analysis does at 00Z. If the low is gone, Fred's gone.

[cycloneye]

It was a great run of over 3,000 miles that Fred did since it was declared a invest,but all has to come to an end.Look at the long list from best track.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[ozonepete]

It was a great run of over 3,000 miles that Fred did since it was declared a invest,but all has to come to an end.Look at the long list from best track.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

Wow! There are 85 entries in there...

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al072009.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200909210050
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 072009.ren

[breeze]

This is our first night in a while without Fred, and I don't know what to do next. Wouldn't it be something if it chose tonight to pop? Wow, I must be board, time to step away from the keys for a while.

I'd say that it's been more like having a disruptive family member that's been hanging around the
house for two weeks and finally moved on - good riddance!

[ozonepete]

Still there...